Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The probability of lightning is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Seasonally cold upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes into the northeastern US later tonight. Steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support shallow convection across the bigger/warmer bodies of water, especially downstream of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out with this activity, the prospect for thunderstorms is very low across most of the CONUS. ..Darrow.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The probability of lightning is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Seasonally cold upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes into the northeastern US later tonight. Steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support shallow convection across the bigger/warmer bodies of water, especially downstream of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out with this activity, the prospect for thunderstorms is very low across most of the CONUS. ..Darrow.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The probability of lightning is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Seasonally cold upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes into the northeastern US later tonight. Steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support shallow convection across the bigger/warmer bodies of water, especially downstream of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out with this activity, the prospect for thunderstorms is very low across most of the CONUS. ..Darrow.. 12/13/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 12 22:16:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 12 22:16:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. This will keep fire concerns low across much of the CONUS. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. A few periods of Elevated conditions may be warranted where freeze cured grasses may carry some potential for increased fire activity. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2263 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR COASTAL LAKE ONTARIO IN WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Areas affected...coastal Lake Ontario in western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121721Z - 122115Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates approaching 2 inches/hr, may accompany the ongoing snow band across eastern Lake Ontario through the early to mid afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...A lake effect snowband is in progress across the eastern shore of Lake Ontario, with periods of at least moderate snowfall rates noted via surface observations. 17Z mesoanalysis shows deep-layer flow fields oriented roughly parallel to the lake axis, supporting a long fetch of onshore moisture. Continued diurnal heating, however weak, is encouraging 8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates given cooling aloft, and this may support convective snowfall into the afternoon hours. While mostly 1 inch/hr snowfall rates are likely, a couple instances of 2 inch/hr rates may occur. ..Squitieri.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 44127627 44247564 44287493 44177465 43927510 43867553 43857581 43887614 43917624 44127627 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central States... A shortwave trough over the central Great Plains will progress east into the Midwest, dampening somewhat late in the period. Its associated weak surface cyclone over eastern KS should undergo cyclolysis by early Sunday as it moves across the Mid-MS Valley. 60s surface dew points should generally be confined to east and south TX through Saturday afternoon. Low-amplitude mid-level ridging should begin to overlap this richer moisture. Convection should largely remain elevated within the downstream low-level warm conveyor. A strong storm or two may be possible in between these two regimes in the Sabine Valley vicinity, but weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing large-scale ascent should preclude an appreciable severe risk. Overall thunderstorm coverage should diminish Saturday evening/night. ...Pacific Coast States... A shortwave impulse embedded within a broader trough should progress across northern CA through midday, before substantially dampening over the northern Great Basin by Saturday night. Large-scale ascent will be greatest from 12-18Z, including a strong low-level jet which will yield enlarged hodograph curvature into the CA Central Valley. But cool surface temperatures and negligible prospects for surface-based instability should preclude a severe risk. While sporadic lightning flashes may accompany elevated convection within the warm conveyor early, the predominant isolated thunderstorm threat should occur along the coast within a persistent onshore flow regime and steepened lapse rates. The latter will diminish from south to north on Saturday night as the trough moves farther inland. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more