Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area. Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated. ...California to the Pacific Northwest... A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more