Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... As heights rise in the East following the departure of a substantial synoptic-scale trough, two strong shortwave troughs will progress through the midlatitude westerlies upstream, and influence thunder potential across the western/central CONUS: 1. A leading perturbation -- now apparent over the eastern Great Basin and southern ID -- should extend from southeastern WY across east-central CO to eastern NM by 00Z. By the end of the period, the trough should reach central portions of SD/NE/KS and northwestern OK, while deepening. A closed 500-mb low may develop on the trough, either then or within a few hours into day 2, over south-central/ southeastern NE. Strong, foregoing low-level warm advection and moisture transport will persist through the period, atop a relatively stable near-surface layer. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected after about 06Z from the middle/upper TX Coast to the lower Missouri Valley, as increasingly moist parcels above that stable layer reach LFC. This will occur in concordance with steepening low/middle-level lapse rates and decreasing MUCINH, mainly related to the warm advection (but also late DCVA over northwestern parts of the outlook area). Small hail may fall from the strongest cells; however, forecast soundings indicate effective shear, buoyancy and inflow-layer moisture content should be too small for a severe threat. 2. The trailing shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture- channel imagery over the North Pacific around 40N150W -- will move rapidly eastward and amplify, with preceding large-scale ascent reaching the CA/OR coastline after 06Z on either side of a low-level cold front. While lapse rates in the frontal band should be modest, and buoyancy meager, areas of MUCAPE around 50-200 J/kg, rooted near 700 mb -- may extend deeply enough into suitable icing layers to support isolated lightning. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... As heights rise in the East following the departure of a substantial synoptic-scale trough, two strong shortwave troughs will progress through the midlatitude westerlies upstream, and influence thunder potential across the western/central CONUS: 1. A leading perturbation -- now apparent over the eastern Great Basin and southern ID -- should extend from southeastern WY across east-central CO to eastern NM by 00Z. By the end of the period, the trough should reach central portions of SD/NE/KS and northwestern OK, while deepening. A closed 500-mb low may develop on the trough, either then or within a few hours into day 2, over south-central/ southeastern NE. Strong, foregoing low-level warm advection and moisture transport will persist through the period, atop a relatively stable near-surface layer. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected after about 06Z from the middle/upper TX Coast to the lower Missouri Valley, as increasingly moist parcels above that stable layer reach LFC. This will occur in concordance with steepening low/middle-level lapse rates and decreasing MUCINH, mainly related to the warm advection (but also late DCVA over northwestern parts of the outlook area). Small hail may fall from the strongest cells; however, forecast soundings indicate effective shear, buoyancy and inflow-layer moisture content should be too small for a severe threat. 2. The trailing shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture- channel imagery over the North Pacific around 40N150W -- will move rapidly eastward and amplify, with preceding large-scale ascent reaching the CA/OR coastline after 06Z on either side of a low-level cold front. While lapse rates in the frontal band should be modest, and buoyancy meager, areas of MUCAPE around 50-200 J/kg, rooted near 700 mb -- may extend deeply enough into suitable icing layers to support isolated lightning. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... As heights rise in the East following the departure of a substantial synoptic-scale trough, two strong shortwave troughs will progress through the midlatitude westerlies upstream, and influence thunder potential across the western/central CONUS: 1. A leading perturbation -- now apparent over the eastern Great Basin and southern ID -- should extend from southeastern WY across east-central CO to eastern NM by 00Z. By the end of the period, the trough should reach central portions of SD/NE/KS and northwestern OK, while deepening. A closed 500-mb low may develop on the trough, either then or within a few hours into day 2, over south-central/ southeastern NE. Strong, foregoing low-level warm advection and moisture transport will persist through the period, atop a relatively stable near-surface layer. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected after about 06Z from the middle/upper TX Coast to the lower Missouri Valley, as increasingly moist parcels above that stable layer reach LFC. This will occur in concordance with steepening low/middle-level lapse rates and decreasing MUCINH, mainly related to the warm advection (but also late DCVA over northwestern parts of the outlook area). Small hail may fall from the strongest cells; however, forecast soundings indicate effective shear, buoyancy and inflow-layer moisture content should be too small for a severe threat. 2. The trailing shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture- channel imagery over the North Pacific around 40N150W -- will move rapidly eastward and amplify, with preceding large-scale ascent reaching the CA/OR coastline after 06Z on either side of a low-level cold front. While lapse rates in the frontal band should be modest, and buoyancy meager, areas of MUCAPE around 50-200 J/kg, rooted near 700 mb -- may extend deeply enough into suitable icing layers to support isolated lightning. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... As heights rise in the East following the departure of a substantial synoptic-scale trough, two strong shortwave troughs will progress through the midlatitude westerlies upstream, and influence thunder potential across the western/central CONUS: 1. A leading perturbation -- now apparent over the eastern Great Basin and southern ID -- should extend from southeastern WY across east-central CO to eastern NM by 00Z. By the end of the period, the trough should reach central portions of SD/NE/KS and northwestern OK, while deepening. A closed 500-mb low may develop on the trough, either then or within a few hours into day 2, over south-central/ southeastern NE. Strong, foregoing low-level warm advection and moisture transport will persist through the period, atop a relatively stable near-surface layer. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected after about 06Z from the middle/upper TX Coast to the lower Missouri Valley, as increasingly moist parcels above that stable layer reach LFC. This will occur in concordance with steepening low/middle-level lapse rates and decreasing MUCINH, mainly related to the warm advection (but also late DCVA over northwestern parts of the outlook area). Small hail may fall from the strongest cells; however, forecast soundings indicate effective shear, buoyancy and inflow-layer moisture content should be too small for a severe threat. 2. The trailing shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture- channel imagery over the North Pacific around 40N150W -- will move rapidly eastward and amplify, with preceding large-scale ascent reaching the CA/OR coastline after 06Z on either side of a low-level cold front. While lapse rates in the frontal band should be modest, and buoyancy meager, areas of MUCAPE around 50-200 J/kg, rooted near 700 mb -- may extend deeply enough into suitable icing layers to support isolated lightning. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/13/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red River by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles typically would support some potential for organized convection, thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls are not expected across the region until late in the period, further suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more