Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the Northwestern US is forecast to consolidate and intensify today/tonight as it impinges on the northwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure over the central US. The tightening height gradient will bolster flow aloft, while at the same time, a surface cold front will move in from the Northwest. Monsoon moisture will support showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, while localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over the Southwestern US. ...Northwest and Rockies Dry Thunder... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and attendant cold front. Increasing PWATs (0.8-1 inch) will favor a mix of wet and dry storms across far northern CA into eastern OR and ID/MT from the afternoon into the evening hours. While the air mass in the low-levels will not be as dry as recent days, with increasing RH ahead of the front, 30-40 kt of mid-level flow should support faster northeastward storm motions of 25-30 kt. This will allow for less wetting rainfall as storms track eastward over areas of very receptive fuels supportive of lightning ignitions. Additionally, gusty outflow winds are expected, potentially impacting existing active fires across the area. The risk for lightning may continue overnight as the upper trough and front shift eastward towards ID and MT. IsoDryT highlights will remain, and have been expanded over areas of the expected driest fuels and storms. ...Southern Great Basin... As the mid-level trough continues eastward across the Northwest, southwesterly flow aloft should continue to promote locally breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph, along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15%, are expected in some valleys in the southern Great Basin. Amidst dry fuels, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the Northwestern US is forecast to consolidate and intensify today/tonight as it impinges on the northwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure over the central US. The tightening height gradient will bolster flow aloft, while at the same time, a surface cold front will move in from the Northwest. Monsoon moisture will support showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, while localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over the Southwestern US. ...Northwest and Rockies Dry Thunder... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and attendant cold front. Increasing PWATs (0.8-1 inch) will favor a mix of wet and dry storms across far northern CA into eastern OR and ID/MT from the afternoon into the evening hours. While the air mass in the low-levels will not be as dry as recent days, with increasing RH ahead of the front, 30-40 kt of mid-level flow should support faster northeastward storm motions of 25-30 kt. This will allow for less wetting rainfall as storms track eastward over areas of very receptive fuels supportive of lightning ignitions. Additionally, gusty outflow winds are expected, potentially impacting existing active fires across the area. The risk for lightning may continue overnight as the upper trough and front shift eastward towards ID and MT. IsoDryT highlights will remain, and have been expanded over areas of the expected driest fuels and storms. ...Southern Great Basin... As the mid-level trough continues eastward across the Northwest, southwesterly flow aloft should continue to promote locally breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph, along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15%, are expected in some valleys in the southern Great Basin. Amidst dry fuels, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the Northwestern US is forecast to consolidate and intensify today/tonight as it impinges on the northwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure over the central US. The tightening height gradient will bolster flow aloft, while at the same time, a surface cold front will move in from the Northwest. Monsoon moisture will support showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, while localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over the Southwestern US. ...Northwest and Rockies Dry Thunder... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and attendant cold front. Increasing PWATs (0.8-1 inch) will favor a mix of wet and dry storms across far northern CA into eastern OR and ID/MT from the afternoon into the evening hours. While the air mass in the low-levels will not be as dry as recent days, with increasing RH ahead of the front, 30-40 kt of mid-level flow should support faster northeastward storm motions of 25-30 kt. This will allow for less wetting rainfall as storms track eastward over areas of very receptive fuels supportive of lightning ignitions. Additionally, gusty outflow winds are expected, potentially impacting existing active fires across the area. The risk for lightning may continue overnight as the upper trough and front shift eastward towards ID and MT. IsoDryT highlights will remain, and have been expanded over areas of the expected driest fuels and storms. ...Southern Great Basin... As the mid-level trough continues eastward across the Northwest, southwesterly flow aloft should continue to promote locally breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph, along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15%, are expected in some valleys in the southern Great Basin. Amidst dry fuels, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the Northwestern US is forecast to consolidate and intensify today/tonight as it impinges on the northwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure over the central US. The tightening height gradient will bolster flow aloft, while at the same time, a surface cold front will move in from the Northwest. Monsoon moisture will support showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, while localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over the Southwestern US. ...Northwest and Rockies Dry Thunder... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and attendant cold front. Increasing PWATs (0.8-1 inch) will favor a mix of wet and dry storms across far northern CA into eastern OR and ID/MT from the afternoon into the evening hours. While the air mass in the low-levels will not be as dry as recent days, with increasing RH ahead of the front, 30-40 kt of mid-level flow should support faster northeastward storm motions of 25-30 kt. This will allow for less wetting rainfall as storms track eastward over areas of very receptive fuels supportive of lightning ignitions. Additionally, gusty outflow winds are expected, potentially impacting existing active fires across the area. The risk for lightning may continue overnight as the upper trough and front shift eastward towards ID and MT. IsoDryT highlights will remain, and have been expanded over areas of the expected driest fuels and storms. ...Southern Great Basin... As the mid-level trough continues eastward across the Northwest, southwesterly flow aloft should continue to promote locally breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph, along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15%, are expected in some valleys in the southern Great Basin. Amidst dry fuels, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the Northwestern US is forecast to consolidate and intensify today/tonight as it impinges on the northwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure over the central US. The tightening height gradient will bolster flow aloft, while at the same time, a surface cold front will move in from the Northwest. Monsoon moisture will support showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, while localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over the Southwestern US. ...Northwest and Rockies Dry Thunder... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and attendant cold front. Increasing PWATs (0.8-1 inch) will favor a mix of wet and dry storms across far northern CA into eastern OR and ID/MT from the afternoon into the evening hours. While the air mass in the low-levels will not be as dry as recent days, with increasing RH ahead of the front, 30-40 kt of mid-level flow should support faster northeastward storm motions of 25-30 kt. This will allow for less wetting rainfall as storms track eastward over areas of very receptive fuels supportive of lightning ignitions. Additionally, gusty outflow winds are expected, potentially impacting existing active fires across the area. The risk for lightning may continue overnight as the upper trough and front shift eastward towards ID and MT. IsoDryT highlights will remain, and have been expanded over areas of the expected driest fuels and storms. ...Southern Great Basin... As the mid-level trough continues eastward across the Northwest, southwesterly flow aloft should continue to promote locally breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph, along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15%, are expected in some valleys in the southern Great Basin. Amidst dry fuels, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ANW TO 60 S PHP TO 15 SW PHP TO 20 S PIR TO 10 N MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-065-071-075-085-095-119-121-123-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ANW TO 60 S PHP TO 15 SW PHP TO 20 S PIR TO 10 N MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-065-071-075-085-095-119-121-123-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ANW TO 60 S PHP TO 15 SW PHP TO 20 S PIR TO 10 N MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-065-071-075-085-095-119-121-123-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ANW TO 60 S PHP TO 15 SW PHP TO 20 S PIR TO 10 N MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-065-071-075-085-095-119-121-123-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ANW TO 60 S PHP TO 15 SW PHP TO 20 S PIR TO 10 N MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-065-071-075-085-095-119-121-123-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ANW TO 60 S PHP TO 15 SW PHP TO 20 S PIR TO 10 N MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-065-071-075-085-095-119-121-123-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 593 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 160200Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 900 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms across western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska should continue to increase, merge, and gradually organize as they progress east-northeastward this evening, and into the overnight. Large hail is possible, but severe-wind gust potential should increase as a probable line of storms organizes/evolves. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles southwest of Philip SD to 30 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 591... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts. To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more