Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PART OF SD...AND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...Upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes Region... An expansive MCS continues to move eastward across the Upper Midwest, with a well-defined MCV evident in radar imagery over the central WI/MN border vicinity. This MCS has continued to gradually weaken throughout the morning, but a few strong updrafts persist along its southeastern periphery over central WI. This portion of the MCS is on the far northeastern periphery of the plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates that extends from the northern/central High Plains across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This plume is observable in the 12Z sounding from DVN and ILX, which sampled 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.8 and 7.2 deg C per km, respectively. Dewpoints downstream across southern WI, northern IL, and northern IN are in the low 70s, with upper 60s dewpoints also covering much of southern Lower MI. The combination of ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong to very strong buoyancy to the south of the MCS from the MN/IA border into northern/central IL. Given the lack of a well-defined surface boundary and negligible large-scale ascent, additional thunderstorm development will be associated with outflow from with the MCS, which results in greater-than-average uncertainty for the Day 1 period. Ample moisture and buoyancy downstream of the leading edge of the MCS suggests the greater severe potential this afternoon/evening will likely be associated with redevelopment/reintensification of the MCS. Additionally, even if reintensification does not occur along the leading edge of the MCS this afternoon, most guidance suggests redevelopment does eventually occur this evening along the southern periphery of the MCV circulation as it moves into northern/central WI. Increased severe-wind probabilities (i.e. 15%) were introduced with this outlook to cover both of these potential scenarios. A small 15% hail probability was introduce to cover potential for later evening storms atop the outflow as well. Storms are possible into northern IN and the Lower MI this afternoon and evening as well, but the lower buoyancy should temper the overall coverage and magnitude in these areas. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently moving through western CO/western WY, and will continue northeastward into eastern WY/western Dakotas by this evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching shortwave and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Upscale growth into another nocturnal MCS is forecast by most guidance, with the MCS tracking northeastward across western/central SD tonight. Strong to severe gusts are possible with this potential MCS across much of western/central SD. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PART OF SD...AND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...Upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes Region... An expansive MCS continues to move eastward across the Upper Midwest, with a well-defined MCV evident in radar imagery over the central WI/MN border vicinity. This MCS has continued to gradually weaken throughout the morning, but a few strong updrafts persist along its southeastern periphery over central WI. This portion of the MCS is on the far northeastern periphery of the plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates that extends from the northern/central High Plains across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This plume is observable in the 12Z sounding from DVN and ILX, which sampled 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.8 and 7.2 deg C per km, respectively. Dewpoints downstream across southern WI, northern IL, and northern IN are in the low 70s, with upper 60s dewpoints also covering much of southern Lower MI. The combination of ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong to very strong buoyancy to the south of the MCS from the MN/IA border into northern/central IL. Given the lack of a well-defined surface boundary and negligible large-scale ascent, additional thunderstorm development will be associated with outflow from with the MCS, which results in greater-than-average uncertainty for the Day 1 period. Ample moisture and buoyancy downstream of the leading edge of the MCS suggests the greater severe potential this afternoon/evening will likely be associated with redevelopment/reintensification of the MCS. Additionally, even if reintensification does not occur along the leading edge of the MCS this afternoon, most guidance suggests redevelopment does eventually occur this evening along the southern periphery of the MCV circulation as it moves into northern/central WI. Increased severe-wind probabilities (i.e. 15%) were introduced with this outlook to cover both of these potential scenarios. A small 15% hail probability was introduce to cover potential for later evening storms atop the outflow as well. Storms are possible into northern IN and the Lower MI this afternoon and evening as well, but the lower buoyancy should temper the overall coverage and magnitude in these areas. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently moving through western CO/western WY, and will continue northeastward into eastern WY/western Dakotas by this evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching shortwave and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Upscale growth into another nocturnal MCS is forecast by most guidance, with the MCS tracking northeastward across western/central SD tonight. Strong to severe gusts are possible with this potential MCS across much of western/central SD. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PART OF SD...AND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...Upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes Region... An expansive MCS continues to move eastward across the Upper Midwest, with a well-defined MCV evident in radar imagery over the central WI/MN border vicinity. This MCS has continued to gradually weaken throughout the morning, but a few strong updrafts persist along its southeastern periphery over central WI. This portion of the MCS is on the far northeastern periphery of the plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates that extends from the northern/central High Plains across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This plume is observable in the 12Z sounding from DVN and ILX, which sampled 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.8 and 7.2 deg C per km, respectively. Dewpoints downstream across southern WI, northern IL, and northern IN are in the low 70s, with upper 60s dewpoints also covering much of southern Lower MI. The combination of ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong to very strong buoyancy to the south of the MCS from the MN/IA border into northern/central IL. Given the lack of a well-defined surface boundary and negligible large-scale ascent, additional thunderstorm development will be associated with outflow from with the MCS, which results in greater-than-average uncertainty for the Day 1 period. Ample moisture and buoyancy downstream of the leading edge of the MCS suggests the greater severe potential this afternoon/evening will likely be associated with redevelopment/reintensification of the MCS. Additionally, even if reintensification does not occur along the leading edge of the MCS this afternoon, most guidance suggests redevelopment does eventually occur this evening along the southern periphery of the MCV circulation as it moves into northern/central WI. Increased severe-wind probabilities (i.e. 15%) were introduced with this outlook to cover both of these potential scenarios. A small 15% hail probability was introduce to cover potential for later evening storms atop the outflow as well. Storms are possible into northern IN and the Lower MI this afternoon and evening as well, but the lower buoyancy should temper the overall coverage and magnitude in these areas. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently moving through western CO/western WY, and will continue northeastward into eastern WY/western Dakotas by this evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching shortwave and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Upscale growth into another nocturnal MCS is forecast by most guidance, with the MCS tracking northeastward across western/central SD tonight. Strong to severe gusts are possible with this potential MCS across much of western/central SD. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/16/2025 Read more

MD 1963 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... FOR SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1963 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Areas affected...Southeast MN into western WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 595... Valid 161220Z - 161345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 595 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and isolated hail may continue into mid morning. DISCUSSION...An earlier compact bowing MCS has largely weakened this morning across southern/central MN, after encountering extensive preceding convection. A larger and more loosely organized MCS is ongoing, aided in part by the remnant cold pool from the earlier system. Favorable MUCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) will help to maintain the ongoing convection as it moves into western WI, though low-level stability and strong MLCINH is expected to keep the short-term damaging-wind threat rather isolated. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest embedded cores. While cloudiness is extensive across the region, modest diurnal heating may eventually allow for some intensification along the southern and eastern periphery of the ongoing convection with time. However, a more substantial uptick in the organized severe threat may not evolve until late this morning or into the afternoon. In the short term, WW issuance downstream of WW 595 is unlikely, unless notable intensification occurs over the next 60-90 minutes. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43589478 45639340 46229385 46549325 46319148 45079029 44469038 43839087 43589173 43589478 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FRM TO 45 NNE MSP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC037-043-047-049-123-131-147-161-163-161340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE RAMSEY RICE STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FRM TO 45 NNE MSP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC037-043-047-049-123-131-147-161-163-161340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE RAMSEY RICE STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 595 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 160825Z - 161400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southern Minnesota * Effective this Saturday morning from 325 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving and intense cluster of thunderstorms over southeast South Dakota will race eastward across the watch area during the next several hours. Locally damaging wind gusts, including some potential for significant wind damage is expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northwest of Worthington MN to 40 miles southeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 594... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...MN/Great Lakes Region... A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details. Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...MN/Great Lakes Region... A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details. Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...MN/Great Lakes Region... A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details. Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...MN/Great Lakes Region... A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details. Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...MN/Great Lakes Region... A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details. Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region. ...MN/Great Lakes Region... A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details. Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time. ...SD and Vicinity... A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025 Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SPW TO 10 NE STC. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-019-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-079-085-091-103-123- 131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171-161240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH CARVER COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN NICOLLET RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1962 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... FOR EXTREME EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1962 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Areas affected...Extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...595... Valid 161001Z - 161130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594, 595 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will continue through dawn. DISCUSSION...A small bowing MCS has moved across parts of central/eastern SD early this morning, producing a swath of 55-70 mph gusts, with localized gusts to near 80 mph. The system has become somewhat complex, with significant downstream convection across southwest MN, but very favorable instability (with MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) may continue to support an organized severe-wind threat as this MCS moves east-northeastward across southern/central MN. The strongest recent gusts have been with the northern portion of the line, and if this trend continues, local expansion of WW 595 may be needed to encompass the northern extent of the threat. Farther south, some intensification and reorganization remains possible, as the primary cold pool and gust front intercept ongoing convection. Convection within the low-level warm-advection regime ahead of the main line may also continue to pose a threat of isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts as it spreads northeastward. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45169727 45689624 45849490 45749379 45199311 44729292 43729319 43629427 43539585 43469634 43799625 44069634 44509660 45169727 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BKX TO 25 SSW ATY TO 5 SW ABR TO 40 WNW ABR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-051-057-115-161140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS GRANT HAMLIN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BKX TO 25 SSW ATY TO 5 SW ABR TO 40 WNW ABR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-051-057-115-161140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS GRANT HAMLIN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BKX TO 25 SSW ATY TO 5 SW ABR TO 40 WNW ABR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-051-057-115-161140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS GRANT HAMLIN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BKX TO 25 SSW ATY TO 5 SW ABR TO 40 WNW ABR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-051-057-115-161140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS GRANT HAMLIN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 594 SEVERE TSTM SD 160500Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Saturday morning from Midnight until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms across western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska late this evening should further organize, intensify, and likely gradually accelerate east-northeastward overnight across central into eastern South Dakota. Multiple corridors of wind damage, potentially significant on a localized basis, could occur, with some hail possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Chamberlain SD to 20 miles northeast of Brookings SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 593... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more