Severe Storms

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-045- 049-051-053-057-059-061-067-069-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101- 107-111-115-125-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BROWN BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON DAY DEUEL DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN HAND HANSON HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY POTTER SANBORN SPINK TURNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-045- 049-051-053-057-059-061-067-069-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101- 107-111-115-125-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BROWN BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON DAY DEUEL DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN HAND HANSON HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY POTTER SANBORN SPINK TURNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Across the US, broad ridging is forecast to expand while troughing consolidates over the West. As height aloft build, very warm surface temperatures are expected over parts of the southern and Southwestern CONUS. A belt of stronger flow aloft will impinge on the northern Rockies as the trough and a weak surface cold front approach. Monsoon moisture should support dry thunderstorms, while light winds and dry conditions will persist elsewhere Sunday. ...Northern Rockies Dry Thunder... Troughing should continue to intensify as it moves into the Great Basin and Rockies Sunday, as a cold front moves in from the west. This will allow for additional monsoon moisture to filter northward, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Despite PWATs climbing to near 0.8 to 1 inches, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected ahead of the front from northern CA into the Northern Rockies. While not as dry as previous days, stronger flow aloft is expected ahead of the deepening trough. This should allow for a favorable alignment of drier/more receptive fuels and faster northeast thunderstorm motions to limit rainfall across northern NV into central ID and western MT. Thus, isolated dry lightning and ignitions are likely to remain a concern across the receptive fuels beds of the northern Great Basin and Rockies Sunday. ...Southern NV into southwest UT South of the western US troughing and stronger flow aloft, another day of dry and locally breezy conditions is expected over parts of the southern Great Basin. While displaced from the stronger flow, localized 15 mph surface winds and low RH below 15% are likely across southern NV and southwest UT. With area fuels very dry and receptive, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though widespread occurrence is unlikely owing to the modest winds. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Across the US, broad ridging is forecast to expand while troughing consolidates over the West. As height aloft build, very warm surface temperatures are expected over parts of the southern and Southwestern CONUS. A belt of stronger flow aloft will impinge on the northern Rockies as the trough and a weak surface cold front approach. Monsoon moisture should support dry thunderstorms, while light winds and dry conditions will persist elsewhere Sunday. ...Northern Rockies Dry Thunder... Troughing should continue to intensify as it moves into the Great Basin and Rockies Sunday, as a cold front moves in from the west. This will allow for additional monsoon moisture to filter northward, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Despite PWATs climbing to near 0.8 to 1 inches, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected ahead of the front from northern CA into the Northern Rockies. While not as dry as previous days, stronger flow aloft is expected ahead of the deepening trough. This should allow for a favorable alignment of drier/more receptive fuels and faster northeast thunderstorm motions to limit rainfall across northern NV into central ID and western MT. Thus, isolated dry lightning and ignitions are likely to remain a concern across the receptive fuels beds of the northern Great Basin and Rockies Sunday. ...Southern NV into southwest UT South of the western US troughing and stronger flow aloft, another day of dry and locally breezy conditions is expected over parts of the southern Great Basin. While displaced from the stronger flow, localized 15 mph surface winds and low RH below 15% are likely across southern NV and southwest UT. With area fuels very dry and receptive, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though widespread occurrence is unlikely owing to the modest winds. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Across the US, broad ridging is forecast to expand while troughing consolidates over the West. As height aloft build, very warm surface temperatures are expected over parts of the southern and Southwestern CONUS. A belt of stronger flow aloft will impinge on the northern Rockies as the trough and a weak surface cold front approach. Monsoon moisture should support dry thunderstorms, while light winds and dry conditions will persist elsewhere Sunday. ...Northern Rockies Dry Thunder... Troughing should continue to intensify as it moves into the Great Basin and Rockies Sunday, as a cold front moves in from the west. This will allow for additional monsoon moisture to filter northward, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Despite PWATs climbing to near 0.8 to 1 inches, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected ahead of the front from northern CA into the Northern Rockies. While not as dry as previous days, stronger flow aloft is expected ahead of the deepening trough. This should allow for a favorable alignment of drier/more receptive fuels and faster northeast thunderstorm motions to limit rainfall across northern NV into central ID and western MT. Thus, isolated dry lightning and ignitions are likely to remain a concern across the receptive fuels beds of the northern Great Basin and Rockies Sunday. ...Southern NV into southwest UT South of the western US troughing and stronger flow aloft, another day of dry and locally breezy conditions is expected over parts of the southern Great Basin. While displaced from the stronger flow, localized 15 mph surface winds and low RH below 15% are likely across southern NV and southwest UT. With area fuels very dry and receptive, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though widespread occurrence is unlikely owing to the modest winds. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more