Severe Storms

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-143-161040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON OSCEOLA MNC003-013-015-019-023-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-067-073-079- 081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117-123-127-129-131-133-139-141- 143-147-151-161-163-165-171-173-161040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-143-161040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON OSCEOLA MNC003-013-015-019-023-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-067-073-079- 081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117-123-127-129-131-133-139-141- 143-147-151-161-163-165-171-173-161040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W 9V9 TO 15 NE MHE TO 25 SW ATY TO 5 W ABR TO 25 ENE MBG. ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-009-011-013-015-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-045-051-053- 057-061-067-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-115-125-161040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BON HOMME BROOKINGS BROWN BRULE CHARLES MIX CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON DAY DEUEL DOUGLAS EDMUNDS GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN HANSON HUTCHINSON KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SPINK TURNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

MD 1961 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern SD into southwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594... Valid 160718Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of severe gusts is possible overnight. DISCUSSION...An intensifying storm cluster across south-central SD recently produced a 79 mph gust in Tripp County, with other measured gusts 60-70 mph over the last hour. With strong to extreme downstream instability (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear, this cluster may become further organized and potentially evolve into a bowing MCS as it tracks from south-central into eastern SD overnight, to the north of a surface boundary near the SD/NE border. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs support this scenario. While MLCINH will tend to increase with time and eastward extent, favorable buoyancy and lapse rates will support potential for a swath of strong to severe gusts with an organized MCS, potentially near/above 75 mph on at least a localized basis. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest embedded updrafts, as well as with any semi-discrete cells that may develop within the low-level warm-advection zone in advance of the MCS. Given the organization and eastward acceleration of this system, eventual downstream watch issuance appears increasingly likely. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44499964 44919802 45089672 45099576 44269552 43569550 43369579 43299679 43219800 43169862 43129913 43109984 43319961 43689943 44009951 44499964 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0595 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more