Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more