Severe Storms

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N LUK TO 25 WNW CMH TO 10 SSW DUJ TO 5 SSE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC047-049-089-097-030040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN LICKING MADISON PAC003-005-031-051-053-063-065-129-030040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG CLARION FAYETTE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON WESTMORELAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N LUK TO 25 WNW CMH TO 10 SSW DUJ TO 5 SSE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC047-049-089-097-030040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN LICKING MADISON PAC003-005-031-051-053-063-065-129-030040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG CLARION FAYETTE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON WESTMORELAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N LUK TO 25 WNW CMH TO 10 SSW DUJ TO 5 SSE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC047-049-089-097-030040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN LICKING MADISON PAC003-005-031-051-053-063-065-129-030040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG CLARION FAYETTE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON WESTMORELAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N LUK TO 25 WNW CMH TO 10 SSW DUJ TO 5 SSE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC047-049-089-097-030040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN LICKING MADISON PAC003-005-031-051-053-063-065-129-030040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG CLARION FAYETTE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON WESTMORELAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 210 SEVERE TSTM OH PA LE 021650Z - 022300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over northwest Ohio along a weak cold front. These storms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 210 SEVERE TSTM OH PA LE 021650Z - 022300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over northwest Ohio along a weak cold front. These storms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE 6R6 TO 20 SSE JCT. ..KERR..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-127-137-163-265-271-323-325-385-463-465-507-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO KERR KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 30 W CLL TO 15 N UTS TO 20 NNE LFK. ..KERR..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-029-031-041-051-055-089-091-123-149-157-171-177-185- 187-201-209-225-255-259-285-287-291-313-339-373-407-453-455-471- 473-477-493-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON KARNES KENDALL LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LFK TO 50 E MLU TO 15 SSE GLH. ..KERR..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-022340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-059-065-069-079-083- 085-107-115-127-022340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE MADISON NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS VERNON WINN MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-025-029-043-049-051-053-055-063-069- 079-083-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155- Read more

MD 0657 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas...central and northern Louisiana...and central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 022054Z - 022230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211. Large hail and damaging gusts remain possible with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection persists amid a moderately unstable but weakly sheared airmass across portions of far eastern TX into central MS. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s F amid upper 60s F dewpoints, with MLCAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg in spots. Multicellular clusters that continue to progress eastward into this more buoyant air will continue to pose a threat for at least marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31789456 32569392 33429136 34298855 33788831 33108838 32588865 31909031 30959236 30639345 30559404 30649446 31789456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0656 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212...215... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern...central...and eastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212...215... Valid 022044Z - 022215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212, 215 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 212 and 215. Large hail is the main threat, though damaging gusts and a tornado remain possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are underway, and are expected to persist through the remainder of the afternoon across southern into central and eastern TX. Ahead of the cold front, quasi-linear multicellular convection persists across central TX, where marginal severe hail has been reported. Surface temperatures ahead of these storms are in the 80s F, with low 70s F dewpoints, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and a continued marginal severe hail threat. To the south of the central TX storms, supercells continue to fluctuate in strength along a baroclinic boundary. These storms have produced occasional instances of marginal severe hail and brief bouts of low-level rotation. Given ample buoyancy with these storms, periodic occurrences of large hail and low-level rotation should continue through the afternoon. Once storms to the north encounter the ongoing supercells, a few severe gusts could occur given cold pool mergers. Perhaps the greatest threat for severe storms may materialize east of the Big Bend, over the Edwards Plateau. Here, undisturbed insolation has persisted the longest, resulting in over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 45 kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells that develop in this environment could pose the greatest risk for 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a tornado, as also suggested by some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast output. ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29790178 30770011 31569759 31599588 31239487 30539465 30159463 29789512 29499603 29269670 28829772 28689858 28499940 28430012 28450040 28900073 29390119 29630144 29790178 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0655 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213... FOR EASTERN KY/TN AND FAR SOUTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0655 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...eastern KY/TN and far southwest OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213... Valid 022022Z - 022215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213 continues. SUMMARY...A mixed threat of isolated severe hail and damaging gusts should persist through early evening with scattered to broken thunderstorms from the central Ohio Valley to the Cumberland Plateau. DISCUSSION...A fairly messy convective evolution persists, which has likely mitigated a more widespread damaging wind threat so far this afternoon. The northern end of the convective swath across KY has broken up into more cellular elements, with the far northern portion that moved through the Louisville area producing damaging winds. Meanwhile farther south in TN, the convective line has failed to appreciably organize. This may be related to the weak lower-level flow sampled in area VWP data. Primary severe threat may remain from sporadic, marginally severe hail. Any one of these stronger cores might aid in localized damaging wind swaths downstream, but confidence is low in if/where a more concentrated threat will occur. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36978290 35858348 35448386 35338464 35618529 36568516 37128500 37708525 38268559 38618550 39018483 39178417 39018352 38908331 38458292 36978290 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0654 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...213...214... FOR NORTH AL...FAR NORTHWEST GA...FAR SOUTHEAST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...north AL...far northwest GA...far southeast TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...213...214... Valid 022003Z - 022200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 213, 214 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of marginal severe hail and strong to isolated severe gusts is expected to persist across mainly northern Alabama through early evening. DISCUSSION...Yet another line segment has consolidated, this time along the MS/AL border area, generally on the southern periphery of the scattered convective swaths over the Deep South and TN Valley. With low to mid 80s surface temperatures ahead of this line at peak mixing of the boundary layer, potential for strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) should mainly spread across north AL through early evening. Recent surface observations from KHSV and KCBM have measured 48 kt gusts. Small to marginally severe hail cores will remain embedded within the line and in additional cells that can redevelop atop the large-scale convective outflows, across far north AL and north GA. Areas farther north-northwest in middle TN appear to be well stabilized. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...JAN... LAT...LON 34718772 33958795 33498839 32908824 32688793 32818707 33618607 34088519 34358501 34718497 35018502 35188532 35168574 35148621 34808763 34718772 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more