Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more