Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0218 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more