Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more