Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

MD 1992 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1992 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Areas affected...central Indiana into western and northern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191815Z - 191945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon from central Indiana to northern Ohio. DISCUSSION...Rapid destabilization has occurred ahead of the front from central Indiana to northern Ohio. However, very weak mid-level lapse rates will likely limit the overall convective intensity. Some stronger mid-level flow (~30-40 knots) is being sampled by the KCLE VWP. However, flow is weaker across Indiana which will be more representative of the shear along the front this afternoon. A few stronger storms may result in damaging wind gusts, but overall, expect the threat to remain mostly marginal/isolated. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39568748 39958663 40288589 40658499 41008419 41408328 41508269 41578226 41528181 40928168 40238243 39808293 39368362 39108440 38928542 38628654 38718705 38958734 39568748 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above normal temperatures across this area. The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough, embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. ...ID... In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very warm and dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday evening across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northeast MT into northern ND... A strong upper anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners, with attendant upper riding extending north/northeast into the northern Plains. A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east across the Canadian Rockies, and eventually into Saskatchewan late in the period. This will result in height falls across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains generally after 00z. As this occurs, mid/upper westerly flow will increase. Modestly deepening low pressure over eastern MT likely will result in increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front moving across the region from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A narrow corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will exist across western ND ahead of the front. Steep lapse rates will support 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE values. However, capping will likely suppress diurnal convection. As strong ascent accompanies the approach of the surface front and upper trough during the evening/nighttime hours, isolated convection is possible. A marginal wind/hail risk could accompany any stronger sustained storms near the advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more