Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region will support a large area of hot and dry conditions over much of the Intermountain West. On the northern periphery of the ridge, southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of a shortwave trough. This will allow a dry cold front to approach and stall over the northwestern Great Basin. Ahead of the front, very warm and dry conditions are expected. With the increased flow aloft, forecast guidance shows south-southwest surface winds increasing to around 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. The stronger winds amid a very dry airmass will support minimum RH of 5-15%. With regional fuels very dry, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, the mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture may support isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. Some lightning is possible, though the highest storm chances are expected over western MT and northeastern ID where less receptive fuels are present. This suggests the threat for ignitions is modest and below 10% coverage for IsoDryT highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region will support a large area of hot and dry conditions over much of the Intermountain West. On the northern periphery of the ridge, southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of a shortwave trough. This will allow a dry cold front to approach and stall over the northwestern Great Basin. Ahead of the front, very warm and dry conditions are expected. With the increased flow aloft, forecast guidance shows south-southwest surface winds increasing to around 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. The stronger winds amid a very dry airmass will support minimum RH of 5-15%. With regional fuels very dry, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, the mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture may support isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. Some lightning is possible, though the highest storm chances are expected over western MT and northeastern ID where less receptive fuels are present. This suggests the threat for ignitions is modest and below 10% coverage for IsoDryT highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana... A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana... A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana... A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana... A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm activity may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. A cluster of thunderstorms may also develop across and northeast of the mountains of western Montana accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a prominent mid/upper high centered near/east of the Four Corners will be maintained through this period. To the north of this circulation, heights are forecast to build through the day along a broad axis extending north-northeastward into the eastern Canadian Prairies, ahead of a fairly vigorous low and south-southwestward trailing troughing migrating inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, to the south of the stronger westerlies, it appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across and southeast of the Great Lakes region, perhaps suppressing mid-level heights across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern Appalachians by 12Z Wednesday, to the northwest of Hurricane Erin as it continues a slow north-northwestward migration to the east/northeast of the Bahamas. On the trailing, southwestern flank of this troughing, a remnant convectively enhanced perturbation initially across Kansas may slowly dig southward toward the southern Great Plains Red River vicinity. In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to slowly progress across southern portions of the Great Lakes region, with a weak trailing surface front, reinforced in segments by convective outflow, advancing southward into the Ohio Valley, Mid South and Red River Valley by late tonight. ...Central Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing front is forecast to contribute to the development of moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating, beneath a residual plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, particularly across parts of the central Great Plains into Ozark Plateau. Coincident with and subsequent to peak boundary-layer destabilization, weak mid-level height falls may contribute to considerable upscale growing thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Although rather weak deep-layer mean wind fields and shear are likely to limit the risk for organized severe convection, thermodynamic profiles may still be conducive to localized downbursts in stronger storms, and gusty winds occasionally approaching severe limits along consolidating and strengthening southward propagating cold pools into this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Although the time of arrival of mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent downstream of the inland progressing mid-level troughing may be sometime this evening, it appears that this will be preceded by sufficient moistening in the presence of steep lapse rates to support thunderstorm development. Models suggest that convection will initiate across the mountains of western Montana this evening, before consolidating and spreading in a cluster east of the higher terrain through north central Montana overnight. Given west-southwesterly mean flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt in the cloud-bearing layer, and a residual deep sub-cloud mixed-layer, there may be sufficient downward mixing of momentum to contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Lyons.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm activity may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. A cluster of thunderstorms may also develop across and northeast of the mountains of western Montana accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a prominent mid/upper high centered near/east of the Four Corners will be maintained through this period. To the north of this circulation, heights are forecast to build through the day along a broad axis extending north-northeastward into the eastern Canadian Prairies, ahead of a fairly vigorous low and south-southwestward trailing troughing migrating inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, to the south of the stronger westerlies, it appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across and southeast of the Great Lakes region, perhaps suppressing mid-level heights across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern Appalachians by 12Z Wednesday, to the northwest of Hurricane Erin as it continues a slow north-northwestward migration to the east/northeast of the Bahamas. On the trailing, southwestern flank of this troughing, a remnant convectively enhanced perturbation initially across Kansas may slowly dig southward toward the southern Great Plains Red River vicinity. In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to slowly progress across southern portions of the Great Lakes region, with a weak trailing surface front, reinforced in segments by convective outflow, advancing southward into the Ohio Valley, Mid South and Red River Valley by late tonight. ...Central Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing front is forecast to contribute to the development of moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating, beneath a residual plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, particularly across parts of the central Great Plains into Ozark Plateau. Coincident with and subsequent to peak boundary-layer destabilization, weak mid-level height falls may contribute to considerable upscale growing thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Although rather weak deep-layer mean wind fields and shear are likely to limit the risk for organized severe convection, thermodynamic profiles may still be conducive to localized downbursts in stronger storms, and gusty winds occasionally approaching severe limits along consolidating and strengthening southward propagating cold pools into this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Although the time of arrival of mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent downstream of the inland progressing mid-level troughing may be sometime this evening, it appears that this will be preceded by sufficient moistening in the presence of steep lapse rates to support thunderstorm development. Models suggest that convection will initiate across the mountains of western Montana this evening, before consolidating and spreading in a cluster east of the higher terrain through north central Montana overnight. Given west-southwesterly mean flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt in the cloud-bearing layer, and a residual deep sub-cloud mixed-layer, there may be sufficient downward mixing of momentum to contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Lyons.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm activity may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. A cluster of thunderstorms may also develop across and northeast of the mountains of western Montana accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a prominent mid/upper high centered near/east of the Four Corners will be maintained through this period. To the north of this circulation, heights are forecast to build through the day along a broad axis extending north-northeastward into the eastern Canadian Prairies, ahead of a fairly vigorous low and south-southwestward trailing troughing migrating inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, to the south of the stronger westerlies, it appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across and southeast of the Great Lakes region, perhaps suppressing mid-level heights across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern Appalachians by 12Z Wednesday, to the northwest of Hurricane Erin as it continues a slow north-northwestward migration to the east/northeast of the Bahamas. On the trailing, southwestern flank of this troughing, a remnant convectively enhanced perturbation initially across Kansas may slowly dig southward toward the southern Great Plains Red River vicinity. In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to slowly progress across southern portions of the Great Lakes region, with a weak trailing surface front, reinforced in segments by convective outflow, advancing southward into the Ohio Valley, Mid South and Red River Valley by late tonight. ...Central Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing front is forecast to contribute to the development of moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating, beneath a residual plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, particularly across parts of the central Great Plains into Ozark Plateau. Coincident with and subsequent to peak boundary-layer destabilization, weak mid-level height falls may contribute to considerable upscale growing thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Although rather weak deep-layer mean wind fields and shear are likely to limit the risk for organized severe convection, thermodynamic profiles may still be conducive to localized downbursts in stronger storms, and gusty winds occasionally approaching severe limits along consolidating and strengthening southward propagating cold pools into this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Although the time of arrival of mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent downstream of the inland progressing mid-level troughing may be sometime this evening, it appears that this will be preceded by sufficient moistening in the presence of steep lapse rates to support thunderstorm development. Models suggest that convection will initiate across the mountains of western Montana this evening, before consolidating and spreading in a cluster east of the higher terrain through north central Montana overnight. Given west-southwesterly mean flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt in the cloud-bearing layer, and a residual deep sub-cloud mixed-layer, there may be sufficient downward mixing of momentum to contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Lyons.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm activity may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. A cluster of thunderstorms may also develop across and northeast of the mountains of western Montana accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a prominent mid/upper high centered near/east of the Four Corners will be maintained through this period. To the north of this circulation, heights are forecast to build through the day along a broad axis extending north-northeastward into the eastern Canadian Prairies, ahead of a fairly vigorous low and south-southwestward trailing troughing migrating inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, to the south of the stronger westerlies, it appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across and southeast of the Great Lakes region, perhaps suppressing mid-level heights across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern Appalachians by 12Z Wednesday, to the northwest of Hurricane Erin as it continues a slow north-northwestward migration to the east/northeast of the Bahamas. On the trailing, southwestern flank of this troughing, a remnant convectively enhanced perturbation initially across Kansas may slowly dig southward toward the southern Great Plains Red River vicinity. In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to slowly progress across southern portions of the Great Lakes region, with a weak trailing surface front, reinforced in segments by convective outflow, advancing southward into the Ohio Valley, Mid South and Red River Valley by late tonight. ...Central Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing front is forecast to contribute to the development of moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating, beneath a residual plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, particularly across parts of the central Great Plains into Ozark Plateau. Coincident with and subsequent to peak boundary-layer destabilization, weak mid-level height falls may contribute to considerable upscale growing thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Although rather weak deep-layer mean wind fields and shear are likely to limit the risk for organized severe convection, thermodynamic profiles may still be conducive to localized downbursts in stronger storms, and gusty winds occasionally approaching severe limits along consolidating and strengthening southward propagating cold pools into this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Although the time of arrival of mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent downstream of the inland progressing mid-level troughing may be sometime this evening, it appears that this will be preceded by sufficient moistening in the presence of steep lapse rates to support thunderstorm development. Models suggest that convection will initiate across the mountains of western Montana this evening, before consolidating and spreading in a cluster east of the higher terrain through north central Montana overnight. Given west-southwesterly mean flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt in the cloud-bearing layer, and a residual deep sub-cloud mixed-layer, there may be sufficient downward mixing of momentum to contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Lyons.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm activity may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. A cluster of thunderstorms may also develop across and northeast of the mountains of western Montana accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a prominent mid/upper high centered near/east of the Four Corners will be maintained through this period. To the north of this circulation, heights are forecast to build through the day along a broad axis extending north-northeastward into the eastern Canadian Prairies, ahead of a fairly vigorous low and south-southwestward trailing troughing migrating inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, to the south of the stronger westerlies, it appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across and southeast of the Great Lakes region, perhaps suppressing mid-level heights across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern Appalachians by 12Z Wednesday, to the northwest of Hurricane Erin as it continues a slow north-northwestward migration to the east/northeast of the Bahamas. On the trailing, southwestern flank of this troughing, a remnant convectively enhanced perturbation initially across Kansas may slowly dig southward toward the southern Great Plains Red River vicinity. In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to slowly progress across southern portions of the Great Lakes region, with a weak trailing surface front, reinforced in segments by convective outflow, advancing southward into the Ohio Valley, Mid South and Red River Valley by late tonight. ...Central Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing front is forecast to contribute to the development of moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating, beneath a residual plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, particularly across parts of the central Great Plains into Ozark Plateau. Coincident with and subsequent to peak boundary-layer destabilization, weak mid-level height falls may contribute to considerable upscale growing thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Although rather weak deep-layer mean wind fields and shear are likely to limit the risk for organized severe convection, thermodynamic profiles may still be conducive to localized downbursts in stronger storms, and gusty winds occasionally approaching severe limits along consolidating and strengthening southward propagating cold pools into this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Although the time of arrival of mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent downstream of the inland progressing mid-level troughing may be sometime this evening, it appears that this will be preceded by sufficient moistening in the presence of steep lapse rates to support thunderstorm development. Models suggest that convection will initiate across the mountains of western Montana this evening, before consolidating and spreading in a cluster east of the higher terrain through north central Montana overnight. Given west-southwesterly mean flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt in the cloud-bearing layer, and a residual deep sub-cloud mixed-layer, there may be sufficient downward mixing of momentum to contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Lyons.. 08/19/2025 Read more

MD 1991 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0827 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...Northwestern Kansas...Southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601... Valid 190127Z - 190330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601 continues. SUMMARY...Strong gusts along with some hail threat continues across northwestern Kansas into southwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Much of the western half of ww601 has stabilized due to extensive convective overturning. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 60s across northeast CO and the more buoyant air mass now resides downstream across the central Plains. Strong, slow-moving thunderstorms continue along a boundary that is draped from Greeley County-Ellis County KS, but even this activity has gradually weakened over the last hour or so. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale support, or a strong LLJ, severe wind/hail risk should be more isolated in nature as storms propagate slowly this evening. ..Darrow.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39800140 39399943 38609948 38620084 39130192 39800140 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1990 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600... FOR SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 600... Valid 190025Z - 190230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 600 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will linger this evening. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough has topped the ridge and is digging southeast across eastern ND/northern SD. This feature appears to be aiding isolated thunderstorms across northwestern SD early this evening. Latest surface analysis suggests this activity trails the main wind shift, but is digging southeast within a steep lapse-rate environment characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Even so, MRMS data suggests hail cores have weakened a bit over the last half hour or so. Hail and wind continue to be a concern with these isolated robust updrafts. ..Darrow.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43280331 45740332 45779972 43319971 43280331 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ITR TO 15 NW GLD TO 5 ESE MCK. ..SPC..08/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-190240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC145-190240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ITR TO 15 NW GLD TO 5 ESE MCK. ..SPC..08/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-190240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC145-190240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 601 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 182225Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop and gradually move east across the Watch area through the evening. A couple of transient supercells may yield an isolated risk for large hail. Otherwise, scattered severe gusts associated with stronger thunderstorm cores and gusts on the leading edge of outflow will pose a risk for 60-75 mph winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Imperial NE to 60 miles south southeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A clustering of storms may continue to generate strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the central Great Plains through much of the evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central Great Plains... A low-level convergence zone has become a focus for thunderstorm development near/north of the I-70 corridor of western Kansas, with additional thunderstorm activity approaching the eastern Colorado state border vicinity, aided by a weak short wave impulse progressing around the northeastern periphery of a prominent mid-level high centered east of the Four Corners. This activity, and associated convective outflow, may continue to gradually consolidate into a further enlarging convective cluster, which could eventually generate a notable mesoscale convective vortex while propagating slowly eastward within otherwise light westerly deep-layer mean flow across the central Great Plains. A deeply mixed boundary-layer across the high plains has contributed to an environment conducive to downbursts and surface cold pool development. As the cold pools consolidate and spread into a much more moist boundary layer with large potential instability across south central Nebraska/central Kansas, it is possible that forcing for ascent may overcome increasing inhibition associated with boundary layer cooling, and maintain vigorous convective development into and through the overnight hours. ...Dakotas... Widely scattered strong boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is generally expected to wane over the next few hours, as mid-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A clustering of storms may continue to generate strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the central Great Plains through much of the evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central Great Plains... A low-level convergence zone has become a focus for thunderstorm development near/north of the I-70 corridor of western Kansas, with additional thunderstorm activity approaching the eastern Colorado state border vicinity, aided by a weak short wave impulse progressing around the northeastern periphery of a prominent mid-level high centered east of the Four Corners. This activity, and associated convective outflow, may continue to gradually consolidate into a further enlarging convective cluster, which could eventually generate a notable mesoscale convective vortex while propagating slowly eastward within otherwise light westerly deep-layer mean flow across the central Great Plains. A deeply mixed boundary-layer across the high plains has contributed to an environment conducive to downbursts and surface cold pool development. As the cold pools consolidate and spread into a much more moist boundary layer with large potential instability across south central Nebraska/central Kansas, it is possible that forcing for ascent may overcome increasing inhibition associated with boundary layer cooling, and maintain vigorous convective development into and through the overnight hours. ...Dakotas... Widely scattered strong boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is generally expected to wane over the next few hours, as mid-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A clustering of storms may continue to generate strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the central Great Plains through much of the evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central Great Plains... A low-level convergence zone has become a focus for thunderstorm development near/north of the I-70 corridor of western Kansas, with additional thunderstorm activity approaching the eastern Colorado state border vicinity, aided by a weak short wave impulse progressing around the northeastern periphery of a prominent mid-level high centered east of the Four Corners. This activity, and associated convective outflow, may continue to gradually consolidate into a further enlarging convective cluster, which could eventually generate a notable mesoscale convective vortex while propagating slowly eastward within otherwise light westerly deep-layer mean flow across the central Great Plains. A deeply mixed boundary-layer across the high plains has contributed to an environment conducive to downbursts and surface cold pool development. As the cold pools consolidate and spread into a much more moist boundary layer with large potential instability across south central Nebraska/central Kansas, it is possible that forcing for ascent may overcome increasing inhibition associated with boundary layer cooling, and maintain vigorous convective development into and through the overnight hours. ...Dakotas... Widely scattered strong boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is generally expected to wane over the next few hours, as mid-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A clustering of storms may continue to generate strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the central Great Plains through much of the evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central Great Plains... A low-level convergence zone has become a focus for thunderstorm development near/north of the I-70 corridor of western Kansas, with additional thunderstorm activity approaching the eastern Colorado state border vicinity, aided by a weak short wave impulse progressing around the northeastern periphery of a prominent mid-level high centered east of the Four Corners. This activity, and associated convective outflow, may continue to gradually consolidate into a further enlarging convective cluster, which could eventually generate a notable mesoscale convective vortex while propagating slowly eastward within otherwise light westerly deep-layer mean flow across the central Great Plains. A deeply mixed boundary-layer across the high plains has contributed to an environment conducive to downbursts and surface cold pool development. As the cold pools consolidate and spread into a much more moist boundary layer with large potential instability across south central Nebraska/central Kansas, it is possible that forcing for ascent may overcome increasing inhibition associated with boundary layer cooling, and maintain vigorous convective development into and through the overnight hours. ...Dakotas... Widely scattered strong boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is generally expected to wane over the next few hours, as mid-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 08/19/2025 Read more