Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the northern Rockies will be complete on Day 3/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north into California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming into the weekend as the upper-level ridge rebuilds over the West. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across these areas with wetter storms anticipated. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will precede and follow along the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture as it traverses west/north. A 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced on Day 3/Thursday in the higher terrain of Utah, western Wyoming, and eastern Nevada. PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8" with a dry sub-cloud layer, although storm motions will be slower over Utah and parts of Nevada under the upper high. Areas of dry thunderstorms are likely near the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture in portions of California and the Great Basin possibly into the weekend. However, enough uncertainty regarding the magnitude, timing, and location of the monsoonal moisture exists to preclude additional probabilities later in the outlook period. Some areas in the southern/central Intermountain West are likely to have only one day of dry or mixed wet/dry thunderstorms before deeper moisture moves in and mitigates fire weather concerns. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will increase across the West ahead of the monsoonal moisture from California and the Great Basin eventually into the Northwest and northern Rockies by the weekend. A strong West Coast thermal trough is likely to develop and will be monitored for potential offshore winds and focus for hot, dry, unstable, and breezy conditions. The duration of these hotter and drier conditions remains uncertain as forecast guidance of the upper-level pattern early next week over the West is a mix of persisting ridging and some sort of weakening or break down of the ridge. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the northern Rockies will be complete on Day 3/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north into California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming into the weekend as the upper-level ridge rebuilds over the West. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across these areas with wetter storms anticipated. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will precede and follow along the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture as it traverses west/north. A 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced on Day 3/Thursday in the higher terrain of Utah, western Wyoming, and eastern Nevada. PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8" with a dry sub-cloud layer, although storm motions will be slower over Utah and parts of Nevada under the upper high. Areas of dry thunderstorms are likely near the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture in portions of California and the Great Basin possibly into the weekend. However, enough uncertainty regarding the magnitude, timing, and location of the monsoonal moisture exists to preclude additional probabilities later in the outlook period. Some areas in the southern/central Intermountain West are likely to have only one day of dry or mixed wet/dry thunderstorms before deeper moisture moves in and mitigates fire weather concerns. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will increase across the West ahead of the monsoonal moisture from California and the Great Basin eventually into the Northwest and northern Rockies by the weekend. A strong West Coast thermal trough is likely to develop and will be monitored for potential offshore winds and focus for hot, dry, unstable, and breezy conditions. The duration of these hotter and drier conditions remains uncertain as forecast guidance of the upper-level pattern early next week over the West is a mix of persisting ridging and some sort of weakening or break down of the ridge. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the northern Rockies will be complete on Day 3/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north into California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming into the weekend as the upper-level ridge rebuilds over the West. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across these areas with wetter storms anticipated. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will precede and follow along the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture as it traverses west/north. A 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced on Day 3/Thursday in the higher terrain of Utah, western Wyoming, and eastern Nevada. PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8" with a dry sub-cloud layer, although storm motions will be slower over Utah and parts of Nevada under the upper high. Areas of dry thunderstorms are likely near the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture in portions of California and the Great Basin possibly into the weekend. However, enough uncertainty regarding the magnitude, timing, and location of the monsoonal moisture exists to preclude additional probabilities later in the outlook period. Some areas in the southern/central Intermountain West are likely to have only one day of dry or mixed wet/dry thunderstorms before deeper moisture moves in and mitigates fire weather concerns. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will increase across the West ahead of the monsoonal moisture from California and the Great Basin eventually into the Northwest and northern Rockies by the weekend. A strong West Coast thermal trough is likely to develop and will be monitored for potential offshore winds and focus for hot, dry, unstable, and breezy conditions. The duration of these hotter and drier conditions remains uncertain as forecast guidance of the upper-level pattern early next week over the West is a mix of persisting ridging and some sort of weakening or break down of the ridge. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the northern Rockies will be complete on Day 3/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north into California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming into the weekend as the upper-level ridge rebuilds over the West. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across these areas with wetter storms anticipated. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will precede and follow along the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture as it traverses west/north. A 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced on Day 3/Thursday in the higher terrain of Utah, western Wyoming, and eastern Nevada. PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8" with a dry sub-cloud layer, although storm motions will be slower over Utah and parts of Nevada under the upper high. Areas of dry thunderstorms are likely near the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture in portions of California and the Great Basin possibly into the weekend. However, enough uncertainty regarding the magnitude, timing, and location of the monsoonal moisture exists to preclude additional probabilities later in the outlook period. Some areas in the southern/central Intermountain West are likely to have only one day of dry or mixed wet/dry thunderstorms before deeper moisture moves in and mitigates fire weather concerns. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will increase across the West ahead of the monsoonal moisture from California and the Great Basin eventually into the Northwest and northern Rockies by the weekend. A strong West Coast thermal trough is likely to develop and will be monitored for potential offshore winds and focus for hot, dry, unstable, and breezy conditions. The duration of these hotter and drier conditions remains uncertain as forecast guidance of the upper-level pattern early next week over the West is a mix of persisting ridging and some sort of weakening or break down of the ridge. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the northern Rockies will be complete on Day 3/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north into California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming into the weekend as the upper-level ridge rebuilds over the West. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across these areas with wetter storms anticipated. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will precede and follow along the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture as it traverses west/north. A 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced on Day 3/Thursday in the higher terrain of Utah, western Wyoming, and eastern Nevada. PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8" with a dry sub-cloud layer, although storm motions will be slower over Utah and parts of Nevada under the upper high. Areas of dry thunderstorms are likely near the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture in portions of California and the Great Basin possibly into the weekend. However, enough uncertainty regarding the magnitude, timing, and location of the monsoonal moisture exists to preclude additional probabilities later in the outlook period. Some areas in the southern/central Intermountain West are likely to have only one day of dry or mixed wet/dry thunderstorms before deeper moisture moves in and mitigates fire weather concerns. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will increase across the West ahead of the monsoonal moisture from California and the Great Basin eventually into the Northwest and northern Rockies by the weekend. A strong West Coast thermal trough is likely to develop and will be monitored for potential offshore winds and focus for hot, dry, unstable, and breezy conditions. The duration of these hotter and drier conditions remains uncertain as forecast guidance of the upper-level pattern early next week over the West is a mix of persisting ridging and some sort of weakening or break down of the ridge. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the northern Rockies will be complete on Day 3/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north into California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming into the weekend as the upper-level ridge rebuilds over the West. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across these areas with wetter storms anticipated. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will precede and follow along the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture as it traverses west/north. A 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced on Day 3/Thursday in the higher terrain of Utah, western Wyoming, and eastern Nevada. PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8" with a dry sub-cloud layer, although storm motions will be slower over Utah and parts of Nevada under the upper high. Areas of dry thunderstorms are likely near the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture in portions of California and the Great Basin possibly into the weekend. However, enough uncertainty regarding the magnitude, timing, and location of the monsoonal moisture exists to preclude additional probabilities later in the outlook period. Some areas in the southern/central Intermountain West are likely to have only one day of dry or mixed wet/dry thunderstorms before deeper moisture moves in and mitigates fire weather concerns. Hot, dry, and unstable conditions will increase across the West ahead of the monsoonal moisture from California and the Great Basin eventually into the Northwest and northern Rockies by the weekend. A strong West Coast thermal trough is likely to develop and will be monitored for potential offshore winds and focus for hot, dry, unstable, and breezy conditions. The duration of these hotter and drier conditions remains uncertain as forecast guidance of the upper-level pattern early next week over the West is a mix of persisting ridging and some sort of weakening or break down of the ridge. ..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1994 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Areas affected...Central/eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191858Z - 192100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may try to organize along/near an outflow boundary in eastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Strong to marginally severe winds may produce wind damage. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Weak ascent from an MCV and a surface boundary have contributed to the development of a cluster of storms near I-70 west of Topeka. This cluster has already produced wind damage. While this cluster has generally moved southeast, the airmass with eastward extent has been cooled/stabilized by another decaying MCV in southwest Missouri. That said, some airmass recovery in the immediate wake of the outflow boundary is occurring in southeast Kansas. The greatest concentration for storms will likely exist near/along this outflow boundary through the afternoon. This boundary is moving westward, which may hinder organization potential. Other isolated storms may also develop just ahead of the weak MCV in central Kansas. Mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper with northward/westward extent. A few storms could produce marginally severe gusts. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible given surface temperatures nearing 100 F. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38679615 37369539 36669490 36449495 36179548 36029601 36029638 35949710 35969725 35989832 36149855 37019871 38509916 39399854 39629750 39459677 38679615 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1993 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS
Mesoscale Discussion 1993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191831Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms. A watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Near a surface boundary and a decaying MCV, scattered thunderstorms have developed within the Ozarks region. Farther southwest into Oklahoma, convection is slowly developing and should increase in coverage over the next few hours. Shear is quite weak as are mid-level lapse rates. Even so, a very moist airmass has fueled 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. With surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F in some areas, steep low-level lapse rates will allow for efficient wet microburst production with the stronger storm cores. A few isolated strong to marginally severe winds will be possible with an attendant threat for wind damage. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34389854 34879906 35729861 35799641 36079509 36329390 37429185 37939055 37898971 36848940 34519203 34029442 34019734 34389854 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds will be possible across parts of the south-central Plains and Ozarks to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur this evening across parts of western and northern Montana. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was trimmed across northern/east-central Kansas into southern Missouri. Morning convection associated with a remnant MCV has diminished, with more stable near surface conditions in it's wake. Visible satellite shows decreasing cloud cover and dew points lowering amid warming and mixing. CAM guidance shows low potential for some redevelopment of thunderstorm activity along the front later in the evening. Some portion on the Marginal was left across southern Missouri to account for this risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ ...Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridging will remain prominent today across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies, as a weak mid/upper-level trough moves east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across parts of the OH Valley and mid MS Valley today, and more slowly southward over portions of the central/southern Plains while weakening. This boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/south of the front occurs. While deep-layer flow and related shear are expected to remain generally weak, moderate to strong instability and the steepening of low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging winds with water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger cores. Only minor adjustments have been made to the broad Marginal Risk based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward this evening and overnight across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on the western to northern periphery of prominent upper ridging over the Southwest. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop through the evening hours across parts of western MT and vicinity as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Instability is forecast to remain rather limited, but steepened lapse rates aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer could still aid in some convective downdraft enhancement, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible as convection spreads northeastward towards the international border. ...Coastal Texas... A weak mid-level perturbation with ongoing thunderstorms along parts of the middle TX Coast should continue south-southwestward this afternoon and evening. Low/mid-level flow should remain modest, which will generally limit thunderstorm organization. Still, some clustering could support isolated strong/gusty winds in the presence of increasing instability this afternoon across parts of south-central TX and the lower TX Coast. Confidence in severe-caliber gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place, supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2025 Read more