SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Greatest threat is currently expected to be from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward throughout the day. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly in the corridor from northern MO into the Arklatex. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the position of entire the frontal zone southward, with an attendant shift of the afternoon severe threat as well. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO. Evolution of these mesoscale details varies within the guidance, but the more favorable area for afternoon development does appear to be over central MO, which is farther south than forecast yesterday when the area just south of the warm front looked more plausible. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, large to very large hail is still anticipated with the initial more cellular late afternoon storms. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters. Veered low-level flow is forecast to limit the tornado potential, although interaction with any boundaries could lead to mesoscale corridors of slightly greater tornado threat. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainties regarding the position of the front as well as how the convection evolves out of the Mid MS Valley limit forecast confidence with this outlook, but future guidance will be evaluated closely, and upgrades may be considered in later outlooks. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region, with some guidance even showing height rises during the afternoon. Even so, weak surface troughing is expected to interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, resulting scattered thunderstorms from far northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR between 18Z and 21Z. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in low-level hodographs that support tornadogenesis, particularly from far southeast OK into western AR. Even with favorable hodographs, storm interactions could prevent the discreteness needed for updraft organization. ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Buoyancy will gradually decrease with eastward extent, leading to the expectation that whatever line segments do develop will lose intensity as they continue eastward overnight. ..Mosier.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Greatest threat is currently expected to be from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward throughout the day. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly in the corridor from northern MO into the Arklatex. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the position of entire the frontal zone southward, with an attendant shift of the afternoon severe threat as well. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO. Evolution of these mesoscale details varies within the guidance, but the more favorable area for afternoon development does appear to be over central MO, which is farther south than forecast yesterday when the area just south of the warm front looked more plausible. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, large to very large hail is still anticipated with the initial more cellular late afternoon storms. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters. Veered low-level flow is forecast to limit the tornado potential, although interaction with any boundaries could lead to mesoscale corridors of slightly greater tornado threat. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainties regarding the position of the front as well as how the convection evolves out of the Mid MS Valley limit forecast confidence with this outlook, but future guidance will be evaluated closely, and upgrades may be considered in later outlooks. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region, with some guidance even showing height rises during the afternoon. Even so, weak surface troughing is expected to interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, resulting scattered thunderstorms from far northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR between 18Z and 21Z. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in low-level hodographs that support tornadogenesis, particularly from far southeast OK into western AR. Even with favorable hodographs, storm interactions could prevent the discreteness needed for updraft organization. ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Buoyancy will gradually decrease with eastward extent, leading to the expectation that whatever line segments do develop will lose intensity as they continue eastward overnight. ..Mosier.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Greatest threat is currently expected to be from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward throughout the day. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly in the corridor from northern MO into the Arklatex. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the position of entire the frontal zone southward, with an attendant shift of the afternoon severe threat as well. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO. Evolution of these mesoscale details varies within the guidance, but the more favorable area for afternoon development does appear to be over central MO, which is farther south than forecast yesterday when the area just south of the warm front looked more plausible. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, large to very large hail is still anticipated with the initial more cellular late afternoon storms. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters. Veered low-level flow is forecast to limit the tornado potential, although interaction with any boundaries could lead to mesoscale corridors of slightly greater tornado threat. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainties regarding the position of the front as well as how the convection evolves out of the Mid MS Valley limit forecast confidence with this outlook, but future guidance will be evaluated closely, and upgrades may be considered in later outlooks. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region, with some guidance even showing height rises during the afternoon. Even so, weak surface troughing is expected to interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, resulting scattered thunderstorms from far northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR between 18Z and 21Z. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in low-level hodographs that support tornadogenesis, particularly from far southeast OK into western AR. Even with favorable hodographs, storm interactions could prevent the discreteness needed for updraft organization. ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Buoyancy will gradually decrease with eastward extent, leading to the expectation that whatever line segments do develop will lose intensity as they continue eastward overnight. ..Mosier.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Greatest threat is currently expected to be from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward throughout the day. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly in the corridor from northern MO into the Arklatex. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the position of entire the frontal zone southward, with an attendant shift of the afternoon severe threat as well. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO. Evolution of these mesoscale details varies within the guidance, but the more favorable area for afternoon development does appear to be over central MO, which is farther south than forecast yesterday when the area just south of the warm front looked more plausible. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, large to very large hail is still anticipated with the initial more cellular late afternoon storms. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters. Veered low-level flow is forecast to limit the tornado potential, although interaction with any boundaries could lead to mesoscale corridors of slightly greater tornado threat. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainties regarding the position of the front as well as how the convection evolves out of the Mid MS Valley limit forecast confidence with this outlook, but future guidance will be evaluated closely, and upgrades may be considered in later outlooks. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region, with some guidance even showing height rises during the afternoon. Even so, weak surface troughing is expected to interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, resulting scattered thunderstorms from far northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR between 18Z and 21Z. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in low-level hodographs that support tornadogenesis, particularly from far southeast OK into western AR. Even with favorable hodographs, storm interactions could prevent the discreteness needed for updraft organization. ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Buoyancy will gradually decrease with eastward extent, leading to the expectation that whatever line segments do develop will lose intensity as they continue eastward overnight. ..Mosier.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Greatest threat is currently expected to be from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward throughout the day. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly in the corridor from northern MO into the Arklatex. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the position of entire the frontal zone southward, with an attendant shift of the afternoon severe threat as well. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO. Evolution of these mesoscale details varies within the guidance, but the more favorable area for afternoon development does appear to be over central MO, which is farther south than forecast yesterday when the area just south of the warm front looked more plausible. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, large to very large hail is still anticipated with the initial more cellular late afternoon storms. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters. Veered low-level flow is forecast to limit the tornado potential, although interaction with any boundaries could lead to mesoscale corridors of slightly greater tornado threat. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainties regarding the position of the front as well as how the convection evolves out of the Mid MS Valley limit forecast confidence with this outlook, but future guidance will be evaluated closely, and upgrades may be considered in later outlooks. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region, with some guidance even showing height rises during the afternoon. Even so, weak surface troughing is expected to interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, resulting scattered thunderstorms from far northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR between 18Z and 21Z. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in low-level hodographs that support tornadogenesis, particularly from far southeast OK into western AR. Even with favorable hodographs, storm interactions could prevent the discreteness needed for updraft organization. ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Buoyancy will gradually decrease with eastward extent, leading to the expectation that whatever line segments do develop will lose intensity as they continue eastward overnight. ..Mosier.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 2 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC MD 217

2 weeks 2 days ago
MD 0217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central missouri and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130334Z - 130500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail remains possible, but appears likely to generally diminish through 11 PM-Midnight. DISCUSSION...Near the western periphery of the modestly strengthening and slowly veering southerly low-level jet, stronger ascent associated with low-level warm advection and inflow of better low-level moisture remain focused on the western flank of the upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms, east of the Greater Kansas City area. Similar forcing and stronger convective layer shear may also be maintaining the more isolated cell now to the east-southeast of Joplin, with the strongest storms still accompanied by a continuing risk for severe hail based on latest MRMS data. However, warming farther aloft is slowly underway across much of western Missouri, as the the mid-level short wave trough and associated cold core progress east-southeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley. It appears that this will contribute to substantive weakening of convection and diminishing hail potential through 04-06Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38909404 39379413 39359344 38859318 38459345 37959363 37559377 36819385 36979435 37309408 38369376 38909404 Read more
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