Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060640- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-019-103-105-135-137-165-173-235-265-267-271-301-317-329- 371-383-385-389-413-431-435-443-451-461-463-465-475-495- 060640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BANDERA CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN REAL REEVES SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060540- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-019-103-105-135-137-165-173-235-265-267-271-301-317-329- 371-383-385-389-413-431-435-443-451-461-463-465-475-495- 060540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BANDERA CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN REAL REEVES SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WARD WINKLER Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-019-103-105-135-137-165-173-235-265-267-271-301-317-329- 371-383-385-389-413-431-435-443-451-461-463-465-475-495- 060440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BANDERA CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN REAL REEVES SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WARD WINKLER Read more

MD 0708 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 227... FOR PARTS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT SERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0827 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM Concerning...Tornado Watch 227... Valid 060127Z - 060330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for the development of at least a couple of intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes is likely to increase through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. A new tornado watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Although attempts at deep convective development persist along the dryline, and east of the dryline to the northwest of Del Rio, relatively warm/dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere has still contributed to at least some suppression. The strong westerly shear, and continued westward retreat of the dryline toward the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, also have likely inhibited development. However, it does appear that thunderstorm initiation may be increasingly underway near the intersection of the dryline and stalled surface front near Wink TX. And potential for intensifying thunderstorm development is likely to increase considerably further across the Pecos Valley toward the Del Rio TX vicinity through mid to late evening. Low-level moisture characterized by lower to mid 60s surface dew points is advecting along/south of the Edwards Plateau, toward the Pecos Valley, as a short wave trough pivots northeastward toward the region. As mid-level height falls spread across the region coincident with the low-level moistening and destabilization, which may included CAPE increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg, the development of at least a couple of intense supercells appears increasingly likely through 03-06Z. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32450356 31700124 31160054 29930102 30010221 30510291 31510351 32450356 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0707 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228... FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the central Appalachians Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228... Valid 060011Z - 060215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228 continues. SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a severe hail/wind risk through the mid-evening hours across northern Virginia and Maryland into southwest Pennsylvania. Downstream watch issuance is not likely due to the expectation of a gradually waning thermodynamic environment. DISCUSSION...An arcing band of thunderstorms has begun to develop from southwest PA into northern VA, and is largely being driven by strong ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave/vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor imagery). Downstream from this band, the 00 UTC PBZ sounding sampled a weakly capped environment (MLCIN of around -50 J/kg) and some residual buoyancy. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates align well with these observations and show a narrow warm sector extending from southwest PA into parts of the Mid-Atlantic where strong/severe thunderstorm clusters continue. A strongly sheared kinematic environment was also noted with weak easterly low-level flow beneath 30-40 knot southeasterly mid-level flow supporting an elongated hodograph. The combination of favorable ascent and strong shear may compensate for the modest thermodynamic environment and support a few organized cells capable of severe hail (most likely between 1.0 to 1.5 inches) and damaging gusts for the next few hours. With time, the onset of nocturnal cooling should steadily inhibit surface-based convection and begin reducing the overall severe threat. As such, downstream watch issuance from 228 is not anticipated. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39817715 39557704 39297703 39057707 38827724 38707759 38817794 39337897 39878015 40078069 40368076 40698058 40958014 41047963 40957903 40687841 40387781 40037735 39817715 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0229 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0229 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE NHK TO 15 WNW DCA TO 40 WSW MRB. ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-060240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043- 510-060240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE NHK TO 15 WNW DCA TO 40 WSW MRB. ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-060240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043- 510-060240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more