Severe Storms

MD 0699 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224... FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...east-central and southeast FL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224... Valid 052011Z - 052215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for isolated large hail and localized severe gusts should persist through early to mid evening across southeast and east-central Florida. DISCUSSION...Several cells across southeast FL have somewhat weakened after earlier producing large hail reported up to ping-pong ball size. This activity may still produce marginal hail/wind as storms oscillate in the near-term. Large-scale convective outflow has surged south and west, potentially serving as a focus for storm development in the interior peninsula into early evening. Farther north, the Melbourne VWP has consistently sampled around 40-45 kt 0-6 km shear. Although thunderstorm development has been subdued to an extent, additional storms may yet form along the Atlantic sea breeze to the quasi-stationary front. Ample buoyancy will favor isolated large hail and localized severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28838091 27758041 26858008 26008011 25618026 25468071 25458099 26458127 26738137 27488111 27968108 28328119 28388156 28518187 28828141 28838091 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more