Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more