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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 15:22:12 GMT