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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas... The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon. CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset. ...Central Great Plains... A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates, amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible threat for organized severe. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across western Nebraska to central South Dakota. ...NM/TX... An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours. ...NE/SD... Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile, per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat. ..Grams.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across western Nebraska to central South Dakota. ...NM/TX... An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours. ...NE/SD... Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile, per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat. ..Grams.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across western Nebraska to central South Dakota. ...NM/TX... An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours. ...NE/SD... Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile, per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat. ..Grams.. 09/14/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 13 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 13 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Areas affected...parts of western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131900Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce large hail and severe gusts this afternoon across portions of western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed across portions of western New Mexico, situated near an upper low and associated jet streak, which is providing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells, per mesoanalysis and regional VWPs. Hodographs are generally long and straight, suggesting that large hail may be a threat with any sustained supercells, and a TBSS has already been noted on KABX radar. Though relatively weak mid-level lapse rates, particularly over the southern part of the region, may limit hail productivity. Evolution of the severe threat this afternoon and evening is uncertain. With time, storms may cluster, and these clusters may have risk of severe gusts. However, high boundary layer relative humidity may result in weaker cold pools and slower clustering. Additionally, clouds and stable air are lingering across portions of eastern New Mexico, which may provide an eastward bound to the severe risk. A watch may be needed as storms develop eastward later this afternoon, and trends will be monitored. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... LAT...LON 31720823 31640944 31720986 32091006 32880929 33260898 33730861 34730784 35480764 35830769 36140763 36260730 36040639 35560573 35160535 34460528 33170545 32540568 32070606 31750677 31720728 31720823 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more