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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across most of the eastern CONUS on Thursday/D4 as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic and stalls near the Gulf Coast. This will likely represent the minimum threat during the extended severe weather period, with isolated strong to severe storms across Texas likely the only threat area. Starting Friday/D5, richer low-level moisture will advect over the southern High Plains. However, this will also correspond to shortwave ridging building across the Plains over the weekend followed by zonal flow into early next week. This pattern may support some localized threat each day, but more widespread, predictable severe weather is unlikely at an extended range. As these days draw closer, more confined regions of threat may become more clear and allow for severe weather probabilities to be added. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across most of the eastern CONUS on Thursday/D4 as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic and stalls near the Gulf Coast. This will likely represent the minimum threat during the extended severe weather period, with isolated strong to severe storms across Texas likely the only threat area. Starting Friday/D5, richer low-level moisture will advect over the southern High Plains. However, this will also correspond to shortwave ridging building across the Plains over the weekend followed by zonal flow into early next week. This pattern may support some localized threat each day, but more widespread, predictable severe weather is unlikely at an extended range. As these days draw closer, more confined regions of threat may become more clear and allow for severe weather probabilities to be added. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across most of the eastern CONUS on Thursday/D4 as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic and stalls near the Gulf Coast. This will likely represent the minimum threat during the extended severe weather period, with isolated strong to severe storms across Texas likely the only threat area. Starting Friday/D5, richer low-level moisture will advect over the southern High Plains. However, this will also correspond to shortwave ridging building across the Plains over the weekend followed by zonal flow into early next week. This pattern may support some localized threat each day, but more widespread, predictable severe weather is unlikely at an extended range. As these days draw closer, more confined regions of threat may become more clear and allow for severe weather probabilities to be added. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the state of Oklahoma and western Ozark Plateau this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Far Southwest Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the state of Oklahoma and western Ozark Plateau this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Far Southwest Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the state of Oklahoma and western Ozark Plateau this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Far Southwest Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE FL/GA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to near the Florida/Georgia border. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions, no slight risk has been introduced. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE FL/GA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to near the Florida/Georgia border. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions, no slight risk has been introduced. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE FL/GA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to near the Florida/Georgia border. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions, no slight risk has been introduced. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE FL/GA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to near the Florida/Georgia border. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions, no slight risk has been introduced. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE FL/GA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to near the Florida/Georgia border. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions, no slight risk has been introduced. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE FL/GA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to near the Florida/Georgia border. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions, no slight risk has been introduced. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more