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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0873 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...Northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190453Z - 190730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A potential for severe gusts and hail will continue over the next couple of hours across northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama. The threat will likely remain isolated, and watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of strong to severe storms over northeastern Mississippi. This activity is located just to the north of a pocket of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, and by warm advection. The RAP also has moderate deep-layer shear, which is sampled by the GWX WSR-88D VWP in northeast Mississippi. The environment will support isolated severe wind gusts and hail. However, the severe threat is expected to remain too isolated for weather watch issuance. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33878774 33798884 33828932 34068978 34349002 34738997 34938960 34988897 34928750 34678686 34138699 33878774 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0872 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 291... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...South-central Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 291... Valid 190441Z - 190645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across parts of south-central Kansas over the next couple of hours. A strong tornado will be likely, and an EF3+ tornado could occur. DISCUSSION...An intense tornadic supercell is ongoing about 50 statute miles to the west-northwest of Wichita, KS. This storm is located just to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This supercell is also located just to the southwest of the center of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The low-level jet is creating very strong low-level shear, which is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at Wichita. This is creating a long looped hodograph and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of near 650 m2/s2. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes, and a EF3+ tornado will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, which will be favorable for large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may also accompany the more intense cores. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38329826 38309779 38109763 37869764 37739790 37679830 37729861 37959874 38239855 38329826 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ...Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward from the Rockies across the Plains through the period. Within the base of the trough, an embedded shortwave trough and accompanying 70-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen over north-central Oklahoma, while a focused low-level jet gradually strengthens along/east of a dryline extending southward from the surface cyclone (west of the I-35 corridor). ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Along/east of the dryline, rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying an EML will contribute to strong/extreme surface-based buoyancy -- aided by diurnal heating within cloud breaks. Ascent along the dryline, augmented by the increasing midlevel ascent, will support convective development during the early afternoon west of the I-35 corridor. Storms should quickly intensify into a mix of supercells (from far southern KS southward) and organized clusters/line segments (further north) as they encounter the extreme instability and 50+ kt of effective shear. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some possibly strong to intense). Similarly, warm-sector storm development is expected farther east across eastern Oklahoma and vicinity, given weak inhibition, rich boundary-layer moisture, and the aforementioned large-scale ascent. Despite the potential for scattered to numerous storms, the high-end environment will support long-track, semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters capable of all severe hazards. While overall convective evolution is somewhat uncertain, a 50-kt low-level jet and related large clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300+ 0-1km SRH) should support an increasing risk of strong/intense tornadoes during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will generally spread/develop east-northeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours, and gradual upscale growth into several organized clusters is possible -- with a continued all-hazards severe risk. ...Southern Appalachians... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Weinman/Darrow.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward from the Rockies across the Plains through the period. Within the base of the trough, an embedded shortwave trough and accompanying 70-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen over north-central Oklahoma, while a focused low-level jet gradually strengthens along/east of a dryline extending southward from the surface cyclone (west of the I-35 corridor). ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Along/east of the dryline, rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying an EML will contribute to strong/extreme surface-based buoyancy -- aided by diurnal heating within cloud breaks. Ascent along the dryline, augmented by the increasing midlevel ascent, will support convective development during the early afternoon west of the I-35 corridor. Storms should quickly intensify into a mix of supercells (from far southern KS southward) and organized clusters/line segments (further north) as they encounter the extreme instability and 50+ kt of effective shear. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some possibly strong to intense). Similarly, warm-sector storm development is expected farther east across eastern Oklahoma and vicinity, given weak inhibition, rich boundary-layer moisture, and the aforementioned large-scale ascent. Despite the potential for scattered to numerous storms, the high-end environment will support long-track, semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters capable of all severe hazards. While overall convective evolution is somewhat uncertain, a 50-kt low-level jet and related large clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300+ 0-1km SRH) should support an increasing risk of strong/intense tornadoes during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will generally spread/develop east-northeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours, and gradual upscale growth into several organized clusters is possible -- with a continued all-hazards severe risk. ...Southern Appalachians... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Weinman/Darrow.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward from the Rockies across the Plains through the period. Within the base of the trough, an embedded shortwave trough and accompanying 70-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen over north-central Oklahoma, while a focused low-level jet gradually strengthens along/east of a dryline extending southward from the surface cyclone (west of the I-35 corridor). ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Along/east of the dryline, rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying an EML will contribute to strong/extreme surface-based buoyancy -- aided by diurnal heating within cloud breaks. Ascent along the dryline, augmented by the increasing midlevel ascent, will support convective development during the early afternoon west of the I-35 corridor. Storms should quickly intensify into a mix of supercells (from far southern KS southward) and organized clusters/line segments (further north) as they encounter the extreme instability and 50+ kt of effective shear. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some possibly strong to intense). Similarly, warm-sector storm development is expected farther east across eastern Oklahoma and vicinity, given weak inhibition, rich boundary-layer moisture, and the aforementioned large-scale ascent. Despite the potential for scattered to numerous storms, the high-end environment will support long-track, semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters capable of all severe hazards. While overall convective evolution is somewhat uncertain, a 50-kt low-level jet and related large clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300+ 0-1km SRH) should support an increasing risk of strong/intense tornadoes during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will generally spread/develop east-northeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours, and gradual upscale growth into several organized clusters is possible -- with a continued all-hazards severe risk. ...Southern Appalachians... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Weinman/Darrow.. 05/19/2025 Read more