SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more