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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more