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MD 1206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 082137Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase along a baroclinic boundary over the next few hours. Severe wind/hail and perhaps a tornado will occur with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have become established along a broad, diffuse baroclinic boundary in northeast TX into western LA, with initiation evident west of the DFW Metroplex. MRMS mosaic radar data depicts 50 dBZ echoes reaching over 50 kft, with MESH cores exceeding 1 inch in diameter with storms closer to the TX/LA border. MLCAPE is exceeding 4500 J/kg in proximity to these storms, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow contributing to 45 kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Given relatively weak MLCINH, these storms may persist for at least a few hours despite overall weak deep-layer ascent. Recent FWD VAD shows modestly elongated hodographs, so supercells should remain the predominant mode with the more isolated storms. Severe wind and hail may accompany these storms, and 75+ mph gusts and 3+ inch diameter hail is possible, along with a tornado. Although a relatively greater severe threat should materialize this evening, a shorter-term but appreciable threat does exist with the ongoing storms, which will necessitate a WW issuance soon. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33119395 32309245 31689265 31579293 31419349 31409376 31749534 32289721 32529899 32899912 33399853 33439771 33669569 33119395 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082030Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat may increase through the afternoon/early evening. DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across the Davis Mountains in far western Texas this afternoon. The environment in this region is characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. This will support potential for supercells to produce some instances of large to very large hail and severe winds. MLCIN does increase with eastward extent, which may limit coverage/duration of this threat. This area will be monitored for watch potential. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29800412 30300418 30990396 31410372 31650345 31940245 31920237 31890198 31820184 31710152 31560128 31290120 31070124 30440146 29940167 29580238 29230274 29010296 28930336 29180377 29800412 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and north-central Texas...southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 082017Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Large hail/tornado threat to increase through the afternoon before a more significant wind threat emerges. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as of this hour, with at least one tornado reported in Cimarron/Dallam counties. Additional development is ongoing west of Amarillo. It is likely some mix of supercell clusters will advance south and eastward through time, with potential for additional development to occur ahead of the dryline in New Mexico. Low-level shear improves with southward extent into Lubbock where surface winds are backed southeasterly improving low-level curvature of hodographs and streamwise vorticity. It is likely that as storms develop and move southward, the tornado threat will increase through time even with the shifting storm mode. A sharp gradient of extreme MLCAPE exists along the Red River near the Texas/Oklahoma border into north-central Texas amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As upscale growth increases, the potential will rapidly increase for destructive winds (80-100 mph). A Tornado or PDS Severe Watch is likely needed to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32989778 32499909 32520039 33030180 33140195 33260213 33570238 33970226 34220198 34450154 34640114 34890054 34990025 34859872 34689799 34259739 34119726 33449729 33079758 32989778 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0397 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0397 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0397 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0397 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 397 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 082205Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Louisiana North-Central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a threat for mainly very large to potentially giant hail this afternoon and evening as they move generally east-southeastward. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 3-4 inches in diameter given a very favorable environment. Otherwise, a tornado or two may occur with any intense supercell, along with scattered severe/damaging winds. A more substantial threat for destructive winds is still expected later this evening and overnight with an intense thunderstorm cluster that will move southeastward across north-central/northeast TX. Another Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued before 9 PM CDT to address this expected widespread significant severe wind threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mineral Wells TX to 55 miles east southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394...WW 395...WW 396... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1204 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 392... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA AND MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA and MD Concerning...Tornado Watch 392... Valid 082031Z - 082200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will persist into early evening across northern/central Virginia, and portions of Maryland. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are ongoing closer to a surface boundary across eastern VA, and further west across the higher terrain of central VA. These storms will continue to shift east across a moderately unstable airmass and within 30-40 kt effective shear. A surface boundary extending from northern VA southeast into southeast VA will continue to support a corridor of enhanced low-level shear supporting storm rotation. A couple tornadoes and damaging gusts will remain possible over the next few hours. ..Leitman.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 39717663 37297570 37277845 39647935 39717663 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 21:21:57 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more