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WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GMJ TO 35 E CNU TO 35 SSW SZL TO 45 ENE COU TO 20 W SPI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 ..DEAN..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ICT...SGF...EAX...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC013-061-083-090340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY KSC021-037-090340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-015-027-029-039-043-051-055-057-059-065-067-071-073- 077-085-091-093-097-099-105-109-113-119-123-125-131-135-139-141- 145-149-151-153-161-163-167-169-179-183-185-186-187-189-203-209- 213-215-217-219-221-225-229-510-090340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 395 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO OK 081930Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Illinois Southeast Kansas Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the advancing front this afternoon, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles east of Columbia MO to 40 miles west northwest of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 390...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1212 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397... Valid 090022Z - 090145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397 continues. SUMMARY...A significant severe wind risk is increasing with merging supercells. A bow echo may develop and produce a derecho, with peak gusts in the 80-100 mph range possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, with reported severe hail across the southeastern TX Panhandle, are beginning to merge. Multiple West Texas Mesonet stations have reported peak 10-m gusts in roughly the 60-75 mph range, and this trend should continue to increase if these storms successfully morph into a bow echo over the next couple of hours. While supercells have occurred downstream of the southeast TX Panhandle storms, it does not appear that large-scale tropospheric overturning has occurred. As such, a very unstable warm sector precedes the upscale-growing storms, with 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear being common (as also shown by the 00Z FWD observed sounding). The effective bulk shear vectors are oriented roughly orthogonal to the merging line, which should further encourage bow echo development. Assuming bow echo development ensues over the next few hours, a strong cold pool could encourage intense rear-inflow jet development, which upon downward momentum transport could support a derecho. In this scenario, widespread 60+ mph sustained winds may be expected, with multiple embedded gusts peaking somewhere in the 75-100 mph range. The derecho could begin somewhere in the 01-03Z period, and last for several hours downstream, the evolution of which may need to be covered with a downstream PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch across much of north-central into northeast TX. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34200052 33929778 33639726 33239725 32569766 32119826 32159921 32419995 32650054 33050107 34200052 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0399 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts up to 80-100 mph, and large to very large hail remain likely across parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight. The greatest threat for significant severe winds should focus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/09/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts up to 80-100 mph, and large to very large hail remain likely across parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight. The greatest threat for significant severe winds should focus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/09/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts up to 80-100 mph, and large to very large hail remain likely across parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight. The greatest threat for significant severe winds should focus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/09/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts up to 80-100 mph, and large to very large hail remain likely across parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight. The greatest threat for significant severe winds should focus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/09/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts up to 80-100 mph, and large to very large hail remain likely across parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight. The greatest threat for significant severe winds should focus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025 Read more