Aggregator

...HENRIETTE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 20.7, -114.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...north-central/northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130106Z - 130200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe wind gusts are likely with a convective complex migrating east-northeastward into the discussion area. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity. DISCUSSION...A cluster of relatively disorganized updrafts over north-central Oklahoma near Enid/Medford has now increased in organization, with upscale growth now evident on radar along the leading edge of a mature cold pool now over Noble/Kay Counties and northwestward into Harper County, Kansas. These storms are moving into an extremely unstable downstream environment, with low 90s F surface temperatures and upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints contributing to 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE. The downstream environment also contains modest deep shear and weak low-level shear, though the mature nature of the cold pool should support continued intense updrafts along its leading edge along with downdrafts capable of strong to isolated severe wind gusts and occasional hail. This threat is too localized/isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, though it is expected to continue east-northeastward in the general direction of BVO/IDP over the next couple of hours. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37219739 37469683 37649562 37429477 36919465 36639523 36379646 36379715 36609756 37009763 37219739 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

410
ABPZ20 KNHC 122351
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Patrol status Kernville, Ca. Update - Lightning Fires: Kern Plateau originating June 17th from a thunder storm. The fires are located in the South Sierra Wilderness, in extremely steep, rocky terrain, thus proving to be difficult to access for personnel. Fires have been dropped to a Type 5 incident and camp at Troy Overflow has been wrapped up.Both the Bald and Lost fires are now in patrol status. Firefighters did an excellent job of meeting goals, and utilizing MIST tactics in the Wilderness.

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 12 22:22:01 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 12 22:22:01 UTC 2019.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 20:53:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 21:24:23 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122052 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Dry air and northeasterly shear have been steadily eroding the deep convection around the center of Henriette today. The low-level center is exposed and the only deep convection remaining is confined to the western semicircle. Despite the degradation in the satellite presentation, a recent ASCAT pass showed that tropical- storm- force winds are still occuring in a small area near the center of the compact storm. Based on this data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 290/11 kt. This motion will continue through tonight while the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA which lies on the southern side of the other consensus aids. Dry, stable air and ongoing shear should limit convection over the cyclone while the circulation remains over marginally favorable SSTs. This lack of convection should cause a weakening trend to commence very soon. By Tuesday, Henriette will move over SSTs below 26 C, which, combined with the other unfavorable environmental conditions, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. The official forecast calls for a little faster weakening of Henriette than the previous one, and is near the various multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 122051 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122051 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 ...HENRIETTE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 113.1W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected continue through tonight, with a turn to the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Henriette is expected to begin weakening by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

...HENRIETTE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 20.3, -113.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 122051 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.1W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.1W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...FAR NORTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...Central/southeast IA...Northern IL...Far northeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 122046Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into the evening. Tornado watch issuance is likely prior to 23Z. DISCUSSION...An MCV is currently moving through the upper Mississippi Valley, with a weakening area of primarily stratiform rain noted across northeast IA into northern IL. In the wake of the MCV, clearing has been noted across central into southeast IA, with cumulus gradually increasing along an outflow/differential heating boundary from west-central IL into southeast IA. Lapse rates are generally weak across this region, but continued heating of a very moist low-level airmass will result in the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) from southeast IA into northwest/central IL. Forcing for ascent will be somewhat nebulous in the wake of the leading MCV, but scattered thunderstorm development is eventually expected in the vicinity of the surface boundary and a weak surface low across central IA. Area VWPs and the 20Z ILX sounding depict sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, and initial development will include the potential for a few discrete supercells. Some increase in low-level flow/shear is expected with time into the evening, and a tornado threat will evolve with any supercell, particularly in the vicinity of the surface boundary which may move slowly northward over the next 2-3 hours. A strong tornado will be possible if any supercell can become sustained in the zone of enhanced low-level helicity near and just north of the boundary. Otherwise, locally severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with any discrete convection. Most HREF members depict some sort of upscale growth this evening into portions of central IL, which would pose an increasing risk of more widespread damaging winds and potentially QLCS tornadoes. Tornado watch issuance by 23Z is likely in order to cover these threats, though earlier watch issuance is possible if deep convective initiation appears imminent. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 42379296 42439155 42159002 41898892 41218858 40618863 40118904 39828997 40089166 40629222 40959326 41289324 42379296 Read more

MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...eastern TX Panhandle...northwest OK...far south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122038Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-70mph) are possible with the stronger storms through the early evening. The magnitude and coverage of the severe risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows temperatures have warmed into the lower 100s over the TX Panhandle northeastward into south-central KS. Strong boundary-layer mixing has resulted in surface temperature spreads around 40 deg F, and as a result, very steep low-level lapse rates have developed. Objective analysis indicates a belt of modest southwesterly mid- to high-level flow is located over the region to the northwest of the mid-level anticyclone centered over southeast TX. The strength of flow will result in some multicellular storm organization as storms move to the northeast. Strong to locally severe gusts/small hail may accompany the stronger cores. ..Smith/Grams.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35560130 36999907 37189710 36409785 35040047 35560130 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes with a potential for a strong tornado and significant damaging winds will be possible across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...DISCUSSION... The only change to the outlook is to add thunder across parts of the Colorado Rockies where a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. Read more