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WW 575 TORNADO IL IN MO 130125Z - 130800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Western and central Indiana Extreme eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasingly focus band of convection has formed over central IL, along with isolated, potentially severe convection northwest of STL, all moving into a favorable environment for supercells and bow echoes. Activity should progress east-southeastward over the watch area, with all severe types possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Alton IL to 30 miles south southeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Wilson County commissioners enacted a 90-day burn ban as dry conditions continued. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index was in the 500 to 600 range. Statewide, 102 counties banned outdoor burning. My San Antonio.com (Texas), Aug. 12, 2019

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW STL TO 15 SSE SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 NW HUF TO 30 SE IND. ..GOSS..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-079-101-117-119-121- 135-139-159-173-130540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JASPER LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC013-021-027-055-071-081-083-093-101-105-109-119-153-167- 130540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE MORGAN OWEN Read more

MD 1720 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR SOUTEHAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...soutehast Illinois...southern Indiana...and into portions of western and central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130445Z - 130645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to evolve primarily toward damaging winds across WW 575. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms evolving into a fairly well-defined bow echo, moving southeastward at around 25 kt. Some acceleration of the band of convection is noted over the past half hour, near the Illinois/Indiana border. A tight instability gradient is aligned north-south across middle Tennessee and west-central Kentucky, which should limit the longer-term eastward advance of the convection. Meanwhile however, risk for damaging winds will continue across WW 575, and may spread southeast of the watch over the next couple of hours. We will continue to monitor evolution of the convection, and any possible need for a downstream WW. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38868893 39208868 39258805 39628710 39548628 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38018799 38868893 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE COU TO 45 SSE UIN TO 25 SW SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 S DNV TO 30 ESE DNV TO 20 ESE LAF. ..COOK..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083-101- 117-119-121-135-139-159-173-130440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC011-013-021-027-055-063-071-081-083-093-097-101-105-107-109- 119-121-133-153-165-167-130440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE HENDRICKS Read more

MD 1719 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...central and southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and into parts of western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130300Z - 130500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms have become well-established across central Illinois and vicinity. Damaging winds will likely become the primary severe risk, though tornado risk continues across central Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection in a roughly west-to-east band across central Illinois, that continues to shows signs of gradual upscale growth. However, updrafts still remain sufficiently separated spatially to reveal pronounced supercell characteristics in radar imagery, including a few strongly rotating cells. One such cell -- which appears likely to have been producing a tornado over the past half hour -- has now moved into northern Shelby County Illinois. With time, expect upscale growth to continue, with storms likely evolving into an east-southeastward-moving storm complex, where damaging winds would likely become the primary severe risk. This could require southeastward watch issuance later this evening. In the mean time, risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two will continue in the short term. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38939110 39909117 39918909 39988755 39788621 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38389011 38939110 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 02:51:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 03:24:23 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130250 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Scatterometer data and visible satellite imagery indicate that Henriette has maintained a robust, compact low-level circulation despite the pulsing convection. In fact, three earlier ASCAT passes between 1613Z and 1728Z indicated reliable wind speeds of 37-38 kt, suggesting that Henriette could have been near 40 kt prior to those times. However, since 1800Z, northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions have reduced and confined the overall convective pattern to just intermittent bursts in the southwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on the shear pattern, a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T2.4/34 kt, and allowing for some slight spin down of the low-level vortex. The initial motion remains 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours so, followed by a turn toward the west by early Wednesday as the weakening cyclone becomes vertically shallow and gets steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track remains essentially unchanged and is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies about midway between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE. Although the official intensity forecast calls for steady weakening, it is possible that Henriette could remain a tropical storm in 12 h due to the cyclone coming out of the convective maximum period and still located over SSTs between 26C and 26.5 deg C. However, by 18 h and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier environment, which is expected to result in significant weakening, with Henriette degenerating into a remnant low by late Tuesday and dissipating by late Wednesday. The official intensity forecast is identical to previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecast models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130250 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130250 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 114.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 114.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130250 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 ...HENRIETTE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 114.3W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 114.3 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Henriette is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart