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MD 1842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...Portions of Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...far northeast New Mexico. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 232228Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues for WW 613. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from two storm clusters in eastern Colorado and portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some possibility for a tornado exists with storms interacting with an outflow boundary in western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows two primary clusters of storms within WW 613. One cluster east of Denver has had a history of relatively discrete storms producing large hail, with one report of 1.75 inches. Storms in the southern portions of the Watch have congealed into more of a linear structure in the Panhandles. Deep boundary layer mixing has led to dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F across most of eastern Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles. Combined with modest low-level shear, the expectation is for these two clusters to continue to grow upscale this evening and propagate east/southeastward. Visible satellite imagery has shown agitated cumulus increasing along an outflow boundary from near Dodge City, KS into northeastern Colorado. Near this boundary, both deep-layer (around 40 kts effective) shear and low-level shear will be maximized. The KDDC VWP shows around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Storms that can form along/interact with this boundary will have some potential to produce a tornado before likely moving into more stable air across the boundary. ..Wendt.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35930323 38620402 39890458 40580427 40900324 40260186 38900143 37840095 36420094 36010143 35840240 35820296 35930323 Read more

MD 1843 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1843 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 232332Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts (60-70mph) is increasing as storms grow upscale into a squall line near the WY/NE border and move east into the NE Panhandle this evening. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying band of storms over far southeastern WY. RAP forecast soundings show 700-500mb lapse rates approaching 9 degrees C/km atop a moisture-rich boundary layer with low-middle 60s surface dewpoints in the NE Panhandle. Despite the relatively weak flow in the troposphere, strong veering of the wind profile is at least resulting in deep-layer shear supportive for multicell organization in the form of a squall line. The primary hazard will be severe gusts in the 60-70mph range. ..Smith.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42490435 42790342 41130327 40930427 42490435 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in a few days as the system moves
northwestward. Future information on this disturbance can be found
in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central Mexico coast near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and WMO header
ACPN50 PHFO. It can also be found on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W ECG TO 15 S RZZ TO 15 ENE RDU TO 35 SW GSO TO 35 NW GSO TO 35 ENE DAN TO 35 ESE ORF. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-029-033-053-063-067-069-073-077-081-083-091-127-131-135- 139-145-157-169-181-183-185-240000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CAMDEN CASWELL CURRITUCK DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERSON ROCKINGHAM STOKES VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC083-550-710-740-800-810-240000- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HALIFAX Read more

WW 612 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 231920Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Maryland Northern North Carolina South central and southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity the next few hours along and south of a cold front that will move across Virginia into North Carolina by late this evening. Multicell clusters and line segments will be the primary storm modes, with an attendant threat for damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Greensboro NC to 35 miles east northeast of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-232340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-232340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-031-043-045- 232340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK FREMONT GOSHEN Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwestern South Dakota Much of central and eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming across central Wyoming and immediately east of the higher terrain into eastern Wyoming. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells across central Wyoming, though growth into clusters with damaging winds and large hail should be the primary concern through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY to 95 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842 ..WENDT..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-075-087-089- 095-099-101-115-121-123-125-232340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-189-199-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS WALLACE Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 232035Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Extreme western Kansas Extreme southwestern Nebraska Extreme northeastern New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwestern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming in several clusters along the Front Range from northeastern New Mexico northward into Colorado. The storm environment is most favorable for multicell clusters and some upscale growth into larger clusters/line segments with an attendant threat for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur later this evening as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary near the Kansas/Colorado border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles south southeast of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...Portions of Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...far northeast New Mexico. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 232228Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues for WW 613. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from two storm clusters in eastern Colorado and portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some possibility for a tornado exists with storms interacting with an outflow boundary in western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows two primary clusters of storms within WW 613. One cluster east of Denver has had a history of relatively discrete storms producing large hail, with one report of 1.75 inches. Storms in the southern portions of the Watch have congealed into more of a linear structure in the Panhandles. Deep boundary layer mixing has led to dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F across most of eastern Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles. Combined with modest low-level shear, the expectation is for these two clusters to continue to grow upscale this evening and propagate east/southeastward. Visible satellite imagery has shown agitated cumulus increasing along an outflow boundary from near Dodge City, KS into northeastern Colorado. Near this boundary, both deep-layer (around 40 kts effective) shear and low-level shear will be maximized. The KDDC VWP shows around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Storms that can form along/interact with this boundary will have some potential to produce a tornado before likely moving into more stable air across the boundary. ..Wendt.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35930323 38620402 39890458 40580427 40900324 40260186 38900143 37840095 36420094 36010143 35840240 35820296 35930323 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GSO TO 35 SE LYH TO 15 NE AVC TO 30 SSW WAL. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-015-029-033-041-053-063-065-067-069-073-077-081-083-091- 127-131-135-139-143-145-157-169-181-183-185-195-232240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON ROCKINGHAM STOKES VANCE WAKE WARREN WILSON VAC025-053-081-083-089-093-115-117-131-143-175-181-183-199-550- 590-595-620-650-690-700-710-735-740-800-810-232240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK DINWIDDIE GREENSVILLE HALIFAX HENRY ISLE OF WIGHT Read more

Despite the record wet weather the U.S. has seen in the past twelve months, mentions of drought-resistant features in home listings remained high in California and Arizona. The term “xeriscape” is often used in New Mexico and Colorado, while drought mentions in Georgia frequently relate to lakefront homeowners’ dock usability amid drought. Yahoo! News (Sunnyvale, Calif.), Aug. 21, 2019

MD 1841 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1841 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...central and eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232200Z - 232230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of multicells will continue to develop into areas yet to be convectively overturned. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely not warranted south of severe thunderstorm watch 612. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows extensive outflow from ongoing multicell clusters over the Carolinas. Surface temperatures are near 90 degrees F in portions of central and eastern NC. Strong gusts may accompany the most intense downdrafts. Given the transient character of the localized threat for strong gusts and inherent predictability limits of multicell development and outflow, will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Smith/Grams.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35418131 35818011 35777678 35377615 34517698 34757941 34938095 35418131 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-075-087-089- 095-099-101-115-121-123-125-232240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-189-199-232240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS WALLACE Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-232240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-232240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-031-043-045- 232240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK FREMONT GOSHEN Read more

MD 1839 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...portions of the OK/TX panhandles...and far northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231948Z - 232145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated convection is beginning to develop across the far western portions of the discussion area against higher terrain. These storms should grow upscale over the next couple hours or so, possibly requiring a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery and objective analyses suggest a gradual increase in towering cumulus against higher terrain of central/south-central Colorado and adjacent areas of New Mexico within a weak upslope regime and easterly/southeasterly surface winds. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s in most areas, which has increased surface-based CAPE values into the 2000-3000 J/kg range amidst steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. Observational trends and model guidance suggest that convection will continue to expand with time, and some upscale growth into linear segments is expected given weak low-level shear and maturing cold pools. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary threats with this activity. Convective trends are being monitored, and a WW issuance may be needed around or before 21Z. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37710438 38800475 39610493 40100504 40690483 40990430 40980279 40480220 39360184 39020168 37880142 36610137 35920208 35980322 36340403 36910426 37710438 Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0614 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The Kaibab National Forest has been allowing the lightning-caused Castle Fire to spread within a defined area in order to fulfill its natural role of reducing dense forest fuels and improving overall ecosystem health. The wildfire has now moved across the entire 19,368-acre planning area, and additional perimeter growth is not anticipated. However, pockets of unburned vegetation remain within the wildfire's interior and may burn over the coming days. The Castle Fire has been burning in an area with dense mixed conifer, heavy fuel loading, and a significant amount of dead and down trees. Allowing the fire to act as a natural disturbance process in the ecosystem helps meet a variety of resource objectives including restoring the forest structure to more historic conditions, reducing spruce and fir encroachment of area meadows, removing fuels that could feed future severe wildfires, and promoting aspen regeneration. A temporary Closure Order is in place for the Castle Fire area,...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:40:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:31:13 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased, the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island. Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions. Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon, Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown