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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS is expected to deepen throughout the period as a shortwave trough (and associated mid-level jet streak) moves quickly eastward/southeastward from Alberta/northern Rockies through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains. In response to the progression of this shortwave, upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes early Sunday is expected shift eastward off the Northeast coast. At the surface, a low attendant to the northern Plains shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across Manitoba while an associated cold front sweeps across the northern Plains. Elsewhere, warm and moist conditions will persist across much of southern Plains and Southeast while weakening high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS will allow for some moisture return into the OH Valley. ...Northern Plains... A moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Convergence along the cold front as well as large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave trough are expected to result in enough ascent overcome any remaining convective inhibition, leading to convective initiation. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will likely support scattered severe thunderstorms. Given the linear forcing for ascent and increasing mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow aloft, quick upscale growth is probable, with the resulting convective line capable of strong wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... While some timing differences exist, medium-range and high-resolution guidance are in fairly good agreement that a MCS will be moving into southeast KS and central OK early Sunday morning. Expectation is for this MCS to in the dissipating phase, limiting the overall severe threat. Re-development in the wake of the MCS across central and eastern OK depends strongly on airmass recovery and the position of any remnant boundaries. Currently, airmass recovery appears probable but the location of any remnant boundaries, which will be needed to force deep convection, is uncertain. While the environment will support organized severe thunderstorms, uncertainty regarding timing and boundary location precludes upgrading severe probabilities with this forecast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS is expected to deepen throughout the period as a shortwave trough (and associated mid-level jet streak) moves quickly eastward/southeastward from Alberta/northern Rockies through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains. In response to the progression of this shortwave, upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes early Sunday is expected shift eastward off the Northeast coast. At the surface, a low attendant to the northern Plains shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across Manitoba while an associated cold front sweeps across the northern Plains. Elsewhere, warm and moist conditions will persist across much of southern Plains and Southeast while weakening high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS will allow for some moisture return into the OH Valley. ...Northern Plains... A moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Convergence along the cold front as well as large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave trough are expected to result in enough ascent overcome any remaining convective inhibition, leading to convective initiation. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will likely support scattered severe thunderstorms. Given the linear forcing for ascent and increasing mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow aloft, quick upscale growth is probable, with the resulting convective line capable of strong wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... While some timing differences exist, medium-range and high-resolution guidance are in fairly good agreement that a MCS will be moving into southeast KS and central OK early Sunday morning. Expectation is for this MCS to in the dissipating phase, limiting the overall severe threat. Re-development in the wake of the MCS across central and eastern OK depends strongly on airmass recovery and the position of any remnant boundaries. Currently, airmass recovery appears probable but the location of any remnant boundaries, which will be needed to force deep convection, is uncertain. While the environment will support organized severe thunderstorms, uncertainty regarding timing and boundary location precludes upgrading severe probabilities with this forecast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS is expected to deepen throughout the period as a shortwave trough (and associated mid-level jet streak) moves quickly eastward/southeastward from Alberta/northern Rockies through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains. In response to the progression of this shortwave, upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes early Sunday is expected shift eastward off the Northeast coast. At the surface, a low attendant to the northern Plains shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across Manitoba while an associated cold front sweeps across the northern Plains. Elsewhere, warm and moist conditions will persist across much of southern Plains and Southeast while weakening high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS will allow for some moisture return into the OH Valley. ...Northern Plains... A moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Convergence along the cold front as well as large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave trough are expected to result in enough ascent overcome any remaining convective inhibition, leading to convective initiation. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will likely support scattered severe thunderstorms. Given the linear forcing for ascent and increasing mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow aloft, quick upscale growth is probable, with the resulting convective line capable of strong wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... While some timing differences exist, medium-range and high-resolution guidance are in fairly good agreement that a MCS will be moving into southeast KS and central OK early Sunday morning. Expectation is for this MCS to in the dissipating phase, limiting the overall severe threat. Re-development in the wake of the MCS across central and eastern OK depends strongly on airmass recovery and the position of any remnant boundaries. Currently, airmass recovery appears probable but the location of any remnant boundaries, which will be needed to force deep convection, is uncertain. While the environment will support organized severe thunderstorms, uncertainty regarding timing and boundary location precludes upgrading severe probabilities with this forecast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central coast of Mexico near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

I-17 is open at this time. Firefighters will continue to conduct holding and mop up operations.

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LBL TO 25 N LBL TO 30 NNE LBL TO 10 S GCK TO 5 NW DDC. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC069-119-175-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY MEADE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 232350Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Friday evening from 650 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Discrete supercell over southwest Kansas may evolve into a slow-moving cluster along a remnant outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north of Elkhart KS to 30 miles east southeast of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613...WW 614... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Grams Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DHT TO 40 ENE DHT TO 15 E GUY TO 50 WNW GCK TO 30 NW LAA TO 40 ESE LIC TO 10 WSW ITR TO 25 NNW ITR TO 25 NW AKO. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-075-095-115-121-125-240340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC057-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 232035Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Extreme western Kansas Extreme southwestern Nebraska Extreme northeastern New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwestern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming in several clusters along the Front Range from northeastern New Mexico northward into Colorado. The storm environment is most favorable for multicell clusters and some upscale growth into larger clusters/line segments with an attendant threat for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur later this evening as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary near the Kansas/Colorado border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles south southeast of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SNY TO 20 SW AIA TO 45 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE GCC. WW 614 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240400Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC033-123-240400- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE MORRILL WYC011-240400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwestern South Dakota Much of central and eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming across central Wyoming and immediately east of the higher terrain into eastern Wyoming. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells across central Wyoming, though growth into clusters with damaging winds and large hail should be the primary concern through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY to 95 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 03:31:08 GMT