Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected from the central High Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. The central High Plains threat will increase by late afternoon and spread across Kansas through the night, with the Missouri portion beginning this evening and continuing through the night. ...Central High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... While outflow from morning convection has spread across the Ozarks and northern OK, this should dissipate as convection further decays with a period of weakened low-level warm advection this afternoon. Primary surface front should become established by early evening from east-central CO arcing across southern KS through central MO as pronounced differential heating occurs across it. Warm 700-mb temperatures of 12-16 C within an intensifying and expanding stout elevated mixed layer, characterized by extremely steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 9-9.5 C/km, will overspread much of the baroclinic zone and effectively cap surface-based storm development through early evening east of the high terrain. Initial storms should form near the Front Range within a weak low-level upslope flow regime north of the front, likely focused across northeast CO where more robust insolation is underway south of morning stratus. The western extent of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points will coincide with the western periphery of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. On the southern periphery of a strong mid-level jet centered on southeast WY to IA, a few supercells should develop with primary risks of very large hail and severe wind gusts. How this convection evolves through the evening and eastward into the northwest/north-central KS vicinity is uncertain given pronounced MLCIN. It is plausible that a sufficient cold pool might develop with colliding outflows and a subsequent MCS could expand/intensify eastward given broad strengthening of a southerly low-level jet across the frontal zone. With the presence of extreme mid-level lapse rates and strong to extreme buoyancy remaining centered across eastern KS, potential exists for a swath of significant severe wind and large hail continuing into early morning. Farther east across the Lower MO Valley, a separate zone of low-level warm-advection driven convection should develop near dusk and likely be regenerative through the night along the periphery of stronger MLCIN. Initial updrafts should have the greatest potential to produce significant severe hail. Convective mode should quickly evolve into potentially multiple clusters that would have a mixed risk of severe wind/hail given the ample buoyancy. The potential upstream MCS across northern KS might eventually merge with these clusters prior to dawn. ...Northeast to Great Lakes... A low-amplitude upper trough crossing the Lower Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley will foster scattered thunderstorm development along and ahead of its attendant surface trough. Modest mid-level lapse rates and weak lower-level flow will be limiting factors to a greater severe threat. Mid to upper-level speed shear will support small hail while a mixed boundary-layer yields potential for locally damaging winds. Overall threat should be more subdued compared to yesterday. A separate corridor of marginal severe potential is also apparent across eastern WI to western Lower MI along a cold front associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east from northwest WI. ..Grams/Jirak.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected from the central High Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. The central High Plains threat will increase by late afternoon and spread across Kansas through the night, with the Missouri portion beginning this evening and continuing through the night. ...Central High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... While outflow from morning convection has spread across the Ozarks and northern OK, this should dissipate as convection further decays with a period of weakened low-level warm advection this afternoon. Primary surface front should become established by early evening from east-central CO arcing across southern KS through central MO as pronounced differential heating occurs across it. Warm 700-mb temperatures of 12-16 C within an intensifying and expanding stout elevated mixed layer, characterized by extremely steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 9-9.5 C/km, will overspread much of the baroclinic zone and effectively cap surface-based storm development through early evening east of the high terrain. Initial storms should form near the Front Range within a weak low-level upslope flow regime north of the front, likely focused across northeast CO where more robust insolation is underway south of morning stratus. The western extent of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points will coincide with the western periphery of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. On the southern periphery of a strong mid-level jet centered on southeast WY to IA, a few supercells should develop with primary risks of very large hail and severe wind gusts. How this convection evolves through the evening and eastward into the northwest/north-central KS vicinity is uncertain given pronounced MLCIN. It is plausible that a sufficient cold pool might develop with colliding outflows and a subsequent MCS could expand/intensify eastward given broad strengthening of a southerly low-level jet across the frontal zone. With the presence of extreme mid-level lapse rates and strong to extreme buoyancy remaining centered across eastern KS, potential exists for a swath of significant severe wind and large hail continuing into early morning. Farther east across the Lower MO Valley, a separate zone of low-level warm-advection driven convection should develop near dusk and likely be regenerative through the night along the periphery of stronger MLCIN. Initial updrafts should have the greatest potential to produce significant severe hail. Convective mode should quickly evolve into potentially multiple clusters that would have a mixed risk of severe wind/hail given the ample buoyancy. The potential upstream MCS across northern KS might eventually merge with these clusters prior to dawn. ...Northeast to Great Lakes... A low-amplitude upper trough crossing the Lower Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley will foster scattered thunderstorm development along and ahead of its attendant surface trough. Modest mid-level lapse rates and weak lower-level flow will be limiting factors to a greater severe threat. Mid to upper-level speed shear will support small hail while a mixed boundary-layer yields potential for locally damaging winds. Overall threat should be more subdued compared to yesterday. A separate corridor of marginal severe potential is also apparent across eastern WI to western Lower MI along a cold front associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east from northwest WI. ..Grams/Jirak.. 08/16/2019 Read more

August 15 update: Main Street Fire is 100% contained and in patrol

August 15 update: The Frehner Canyon Fire is 100% contained and in patrol

The Ward Fire started early afternoon August 9th, 2019 when a lightning storm came through the area. The fire instantly started running and spotting, aided by topography and winds. Crews from ODF and BLM along with Green Diamond timber company responded rapidly. Due to the favorable weather and quick action on the part of the cooperators good progress is being made. Cooperators include Klamath-Lake Distirct - Oregon Department of Forestry, Klamath Falls Resource Area, Lakeview District BLM, Green Diamond Resource Company and Klamath County Fire DepartmentOregon Department of Forestry Type 1 IMT 2 (Chris Cline, Incident Commander) assumed command at 6pm August 10,

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be this evening and overnight, for hail and wind over portions of northeastern Kansas and western/central Missouri. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a set of cyclones across western and northern Canada, along with assorted shortwaves to their south, is contributing to a zonal to slightly cyclonic pattern across the northern half of the CONUS. A leading shortwave trough -- initially over New England, will eject away from the region. Meanwhile another perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of WI and northern IL -- should eject northeastward across Upper MI and eastern Lake Superior to adjoining parts of northeastern ON. A weak shortwave trough currently over OH will move east-northeastward across parts of PA and NY, weakening further through the period. Upstream, another perturbation is evident over southeastern MT and eastern WY, and should shift east-southeastward to near the OMA/FSD corridor by 00Z, then reaching Lower MI by 12Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a weak surface low over eastern PA, with quasistationary frontal zone southwestward roughly down the Blue Ridge to north-central GA, then arching northwestward into an area of outflow over southeastern MO. That part of this front east of the Mississippi River should move little through the period. Another frontal zone -- weakly cold to stationary -- was drawn from central IA across central/southwestern KS. This boundary should move eastward across portions of WI and northern IL by 00Z, just ahead of the mid/upper trough, then eastward over Lower MI and much of IL by the end of the period, while the remainder of the front remains across parts of KS/MO. ...KS/MO and vicinity... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in clusters should form this evening and overnight in and near the enhanced-risk area, offering large hail -- some significant/2+ inches being possible from any supercells. Damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out, though this threat is more conditional on location/extent of upscale cold-pool aggregation and depth/strength of near-surface static stability in the nocturnal preconvective environment. An extensive area of convective outflow is present at outlook time over much of MO and eastern KS, reinforced by multiple rounds of convection during the prior overnight period. Considerable uncertainty exists in the northeastward extent and timing of favorable air mass recovery by late afternoon and evening -- both surface and aloft over western/northern MO. This is related not just to the mesoscale and at least partly elevated nature of the putative low-level forcing, but also both synoptic and convection- allowing models' poor performance with duration/extent of ongoing convection from northeastern OK across the KS/MO border region. Still, the concern is more of location and timing of overnight severe rather than density/intensity. With strong low-level warm advection and moisture transport accompanying a 50-60-kt southwesterly LLJ tonight, expect one or two primary clusters to move eastward to east-southeastward over the region with severe potential lingering through much of the overnight part of the period. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will form this afternoon over some of the higher terrain just east of the eastern mountains in CO/WY, including the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge, as strong surface heating preferentially removes CINH on the elevated terrain. Additional, isolated to widely scattered convection may form elsewhere across the western parts of the outlook area. This should occur primarily driven by boundary-layer forcing, both thermodynamically and kinematically (weak convergence and upslope-lift areas north of the front), since mid/upper-level support is meager. Severe hail and gusts will be the main concerns, with localized severe concentrations in both coverage and magnitude where sustained supercells and/or bow echoes can develop. Moisture and buoyancy will increase eastward, as will MLCINH with lowering altitude, amidst steep midlevel lapse rates. An axis of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should develop from extreme eastern WY southeastward to extreme eastern CO, amidst 40-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The threat generally should diminish through mid/late evening as the foregoing boundary layer stabilizes, though isolated severe activity may persist to near 06Z. ...Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms should form from midday through this afternoon, in zones of weak boundary-layer convergence related to a surface trough and remnant frontal zone. Isolated gusts to severe limits may occur from the most intense cells, and subsevere gusts still may produce minor damage. Areas of sustained surface heating are expected today amidst patchy low and high clouds, and behind the initial shortwave trough. This, combined with favorable surface moisture (e.g., dewpoints increasing through the 60s to near 70 F with southward extent), will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to eradicate MLCINH and produce favorable buoyancy for afternoon convective development. Weak lift ahead of the subtle shortwave trough also may contribute to a favorable convective environment. Forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE generally in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level winds and deep shear will increase northward, leading to effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range area-wide. Organized multicells and brief/marginal supercell behavior are possible. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be this evening and overnight, for hail and wind over portions of northeastern Kansas and western/central Missouri. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a set of cyclones across western and northern Canada, along with assorted shortwaves to their south, is contributing to a zonal to slightly cyclonic pattern across the northern half of the CONUS. A leading shortwave trough -- initially over New England, will eject away from the region. Meanwhile another perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of WI and northern IL -- should eject northeastward across Upper MI and eastern Lake Superior to adjoining parts of northeastern ON. A weak shortwave trough currently over OH will move east-northeastward across parts of PA and NY, weakening further through the period. Upstream, another perturbation is evident over southeastern MT and eastern WY, and should shift east-southeastward to near the OMA/FSD corridor by 00Z, then reaching Lower MI by 12Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a weak surface low over eastern PA, with quasistationary frontal zone southwestward roughly down the Blue Ridge to north-central GA, then arching northwestward into an area of outflow over southeastern MO. That part of this front east of the Mississippi River should move little through the period. Another frontal zone -- weakly cold to stationary -- was drawn from central IA across central/southwestern KS. This boundary should move eastward across portions of WI and northern IL by 00Z, just ahead of the mid/upper trough, then eastward over Lower MI and much of IL by the end of the period, while the remainder of the front remains across parts of KS/MO. ...KS/MO and vicinity... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in clusters should form this evening and overnight in and near the enhanced-risk area, offering large hail -- some significant/2+ inches being possible from any supercells. Damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out, though this threat is more conditional on location/extent of upscale cold-pool aggregation and depth/strength of near-surface static stability in the nocturnal preconvective environment. An extensive area of convective outflow is present at outlook time over much of MO and eastern KS, reinforced by multiple rounds of convection during the prior overnight period. Considerable uncertainty exists in the northeastward extent and timing of favorable air mass recovery by late afternoon and evening -- both surface and aloft over western/northern MO. This is related not just to the mesoscale and at least partly elevated nature of the putative low-level forcing, but also both synoptic and convection- allowing models' poor performance with duration/extent of ongoing convection from northeastern OK across the KS/MO border region. Still, the concern is more of location and timing of overnight severe rather than density/intensity. With strong low-level warm advection and moisture transport accompanying a 50-60-kt southwesterly LLJ tonight, expect one or two primary clusters to move eastward to east-southeastward over the region with severe potential lingering through much of the overnight part of the period. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will form this afternoon over some of the higher terrain just east of the eastern mountains in CO/WY, including the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge, as strong surface heating preferentially removes CINH on the elevated terrain. Additional, isolated to widely scattered convection may form elsewhere across the western parts of the outlook area. This should occur primarily driven by boundary-layer forcing, both thermodynamically and kinematically (weak convergence and upslope-lift areas north of the front), since mid/upper-level support is meager. Severe hail and gusts will be the main concerns, with localized severe concentrations in both coverage and magnitude where sustained supercells and/or bow echoes can develop. Moisture and buoyancy will increase eastward, as will MLCINH with lowering altitude, amidst steep midlevel lapse rates. An axis of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should develop from extreme eastern WY southeastward to extreme eastern CO, amidst 40-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The threat generally should diminish through mid/late evening as the foregoing boundary layer stabilizes, though isolated severe activity may persist to near 06Z. ...Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms should form from midday through this afternoon, in zones of weak boundary-layer convergence related to a surface trough and remnant frontal zone. Isolated gusts to severe limits may occur from the most intense cells, and subsevere gusts still may produce minor damage. Areas of sustained surface heating are expected today amidst patchy low and high clouds, and behind the initial shortwave trough. This, combined with favorable surface moisture (e.g., dewpoints increasing through the 60s to near 70 F with southward extent), will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to eradicate MLCINH and produce favorable buoyancy for afternoon convective development. Weak lift ahead of the subtle shortwave trough also may contribute to a favorable convective environment. Forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE generally in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level winds and deep shear will increase northward, leading to effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range area-wide. Organized multicells and brief/marginal supercell behavior are possible. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be this evening and overnight, for hail and wind over portions of northeastern Kansas and western/central Missouri. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a set of cyclones across western and northern Canada, along with assorted shortwaves to their south, is contributing to a zonal to slightly cyclonic pattern across the northern half of the CONUS. A leading shortwave trough -- initially over New England, will eject away from the region. Meanwhile another perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of WI and northern IL -- should eject northeastward across Upper MI and eastern Lake Superior to adjoining parts of northeastern ON. A weak shortwave trough currently over OH will move east-northeastward across parts of PA and NY, weakening further through the period. Upstream, another perturbation is evident over southeastern MT and eastern WY, and should shift east-southeastward to near the OMA/FSD corridor by 00Z, then reaching Lower MI by 12Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a weak surface low over eastern PA, with quasistationary frontal zone southwestward roughly down the Blue Ridge to north-central GA, then arching northwestward into an area of outflow over southeastern MO. That part of this front east of the Mississippi River should move little through the period. Another frontal zone -- weakly cold to stationary -- was drawn from central IA across central/southwestern KS. This boundary should move eastward across portions of WI and northern IL by 00Z, just ahead of the mid/upper trough, then eastward over Lower MI and much of IL by the end of the period, while the remainder of the front remains across parts of KS/MO. ...KS/MO and vicinity... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in clusters should form this evening and overnight in and near the enhanced-risk area, offering large hail -- some significant/2+ inches being possible from any supercells. Damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out, though this threat is more conditional on location/extent of upscale cold-pool aggregation and depth/strength of near-surface static stability in the nocturnal preconvective environment. An extensive area of convective outflow is present at outlook time over much of MO and eastern KS, reinforced by multiple rounds of convection during the prior overnight period. Considerable uncertainty exists in the northeastward extent and timing of favorable air mass recovery by late afternoon and evening -- both surface and aloft over western/northern MO. This is related not just to the mesoscale and at least partly elevated nature of the putative low-level forcing, but also both synoptic and convection- allowing models' poor performance with duration/extent of ongoing convection from northeastern OK across the KS/MO border region. Still, the concern is more of location and timing of overnight severe rather than density/intensity. With strong low-level warm advection and moisture transport accompanying a 50-60-kt southwesterly LLJ tonight, expect one or two primary clusters to move eastward to east-southeastward over the region with severe potential lingering through much of the overnight part of the period. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will form this afternoon over some of the higher terrain just east of the eastern mountains in CO/WY, including the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge, as strong surface heating preferentially removes CINH on the elevated terrain. Additional, isolated to widely scattered convection may form elsewhere across the western parts of the outlook area. This should occur primarily driven by boundary-layer forcing, both thermodynamically and kinematically (weak convergence and upslope-lift areas north of the front), since mid/upper-level support is meager. Severe hail and gusts will be the main concerns, with localized severe concentrations in both coverage and magnitude where sustained supercells and/or bow echoes can develop. Moisture and buoyancy will increase eastward, as will MLCINH with lowering altitude, amidst steep midlevel lapse rates. An axis of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should develop from extreme eastern WY southeastward to extreme eastern CO, amidst 40-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The threat generally should diminish through mid/late evening as the foregoing boundary layer stabilizes, though isolated severe activity may persist to near 06Z. ...Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms should form from midday through this afternoon, in zones of weak boundary-layer convergence related to a surface trough and remnant frontal zone. Isolated gusts to severe limits may occur from the most intense cells, and subsevere gusts still may produce minor damage. Areas of sustained surface heating are expected today amidst patchy low and high clouds, and behind the initial shortwave trough. This, combined with favorable surface moisture (e.g., dewpoints increasing through the 60s to near 70 F with southward extent), will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to eradicate MLCINH and produce favorable buoyancy for afternoon convective development. Weak lift ahead of the subtle shortwave trough also may contribute to a favorable convective environment. Forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE generally in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level winds and deep shear will increase northward, leading to effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range area-wide. Organized multicells and brief/marginal supercell behavior are possible. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/16/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 1758 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1758 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...southeast Kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 161104Z - 161200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorms continue this morning all continue to exhibit a slow weakening trend. As such a new watch is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...Three distinct thunderstorm clusters are evident across the region this morning: 1) south-central Missouri -- the remnants of the original bow; 2)west-central Missouri -- the remnants of the initial warm-air advection storms; and 3)southeast Kansas -- newer warm-air advection storms. The remnants of the earlier bow echo continue to move east-southeast across south-central Missouri. The airmass along and ahead of this cluster should become increasingly hostile to thunderstorm maintenance, let alone severe maintenance. Most-unstable CAPE quickly drops off to near nothing to the east of the storms, and deep-layer shear decreases as well. Thus, the severe threat along and ahead of this cluster is low. The remnants of the initial warm-air advection storms across northeast Kansas have continued to slowly move east into western Missouri. Despite being fed from a moderately unstable airmass to the west, the persistent, slow-moving nature of the storms has likely stabilized the airmass in the immediate vicinity of the complex. This, combined with a weakening low-level jet, and subsequent decrease in warm-air advection later this morning, the overall severe threat should remain limited. Hail will be the primary severe threat. The newer warm-air advection thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas should continue for a few more hours. Here, the airmass is less worked over than areas farther north and east, suggesting a potential for severe hail. At the same time deep-layer shear is less, which would argue for less thunderstorm organization and less organized severe potential. Based on observed trends, some potential exists for a thunderstorm or two to briefly support hail in excess of 1 inch. However, the severe threat should remain poorly organized. All-in-all, while severe hail or wind cannot be ruled out anywhere within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587, the overall severe threat is much less than earlier. Current expectations are that ongoing watch #587 will be allowed to expire at the top of the hour, with no plans for an additional watch. ..Marsh.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36769631 39679430 36759107 36769631 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNU TO 35 NE CNU TO 20 WNW OJC TO 20 S FNB. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-005-011-021-037-091-099-103-107-121-133-205-209-161040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI NEOSHO WILSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-161040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JACKSON JASPER Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNU TO 35 NE CNU TO 20 WNW OJC TO 20 S FNB. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-005-011-021-037-091-099-103-107-121-133-205-209-161040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI NEOSHO WILSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-161040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JACKSON JASPER Read more

WW 587 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 160500Z - 161200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and central Missouri * Effective this Friday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will spread southeastward across eastern Kansas and western into central Missouri overnight. The environment will support the possibility of additional supercells/bowing segments capable of large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Leavenworth KS to 30 miles west southwest of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...WW 585...WW 586... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SNY TO 25 SE AIA TO 45 ESE AIA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-171-161040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SNY TO 25 SE AIA TO 45 ESE AIA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-171-161040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 586 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 160440Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1040 PM until 500 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify through the overnight hours as a seasonally strong mid-level disturbance approaches the region. The environment will support southeastward-moving supercells and well-organized clusters capable of large hail and locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Douglas WY to 40 miles east of Alliance NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...WW 585... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more