Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Height rises will occur initially over the CONUS on Mon/D4 as an upper trough ejects northeast across Quebec. However, a second minor amplification is expected beginning late D4/Mon night over the Dakotas and Minnesota as subtle height falls develop out of Canada. While the ECWMF is more amplified with this trough than the MREF members, especially into Tue/D5, all models suggest up to 50 kt northwest 500 mb winds impinging upon a large reservoir of instability over the northern Plains and Midwest, with impressive midlevel lapse rates for this time of year (8.0-8.5 C/km). Further, there is good model overlap with the convective signal which shows storms initiating D4/Mon evening over SD due to strong heating and increasing nocturnal warm advection. The result may be a severe MCS Monday night into Tuesday, from SD into southern MN, IA, and northern IL, with potentially damaging winds. Given inherently low predictability for multi-day MCS tracks, will begin this scenario with a Slight Risk for Mon/D4 from SD into MN, with the possibility of further upgrades on Tue/D5 into IL should further model runs show good run-to-run consistency. By Wed/D6, the previously large pool of instability over the northern Plains/Midwest will rapidly diminish as the air mass overturns from the D4-D5 storms, and temperatures aloft warm behind the upper trough as it continues east across Ontario and Quebec. Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MHK TO 40 SSE BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-021-031-037-045-059-073-085-087-091-099-103- 107-111-121-133-139-149-177-197-205-207-209-160840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-160840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TOR TO 30 NE TOR TO 50 NE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-069-123-157-161-165-160840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE GARDEN MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1756 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...eastern Kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 160734Z - 160900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. These thunderstorms will continue through the night. Large hail and gusty winds should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue on the eastern periphery of a warm low-level airmass across central Kansas. This complex of thunderstorms is exhibiting a modified "bow and arrow" mesoscale convective system structure, with a leading bow echo -- now over southwest Missouri -- and trailing line of thunderstorms behind the initial bow echo -- fed by warm-air advection emanating from a moist, warm low-level airmass across central Kansas. Generally speaking, a threat for hail and gusty winds will continue for a couple more hours with the leading bow across southern Missouri. Behind this bow, thunderstorms will continue to be fed by an unimpeded fetch of moist, unstable air (where most-unstable CAPE values will be in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg). Although deep-layer shear is less than to the northwest, values around 30-40 knots will be more than sufficient to support updraft organization and a continued threat of large hail and gusty winds through the morning. Unless additional development becomes apparent across portions of southeast Kansas, western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587 may be cleared from the watch before expiration later this morning. This will be monitored. ..Marsh.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39579655 39559576 39669576 39639508 39799482 39799464 39749462 39759425 39559417 39529373 39589374 39609332 39219286 39019285 38969254 38689262 38669284 38419256 38349218 37979202 37599202 37609223 37459224 37449267 37069268 37099358 36929359 36919403 37039404 37059460 36999462 37019555 37339550 37379591 37599597 37609646 38089648 38099633 38739634 38819646 39049645 39059636 39139636 39179650 39409672 39579655 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO LAKE ONTARIO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario on Sunday, generally north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough with cold front will move from the Upper MS Valley into Ontario during the day, while to the south a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from IL into OH. The southern wave may be associated with an MCS, but large-scale support will decrease with time. To the west, a low will develop over western OK, with a very unstable air mass over OK, KS, MO and AR. One or more outflow boundaries may exist from eastern KS into MO, providing a focus for storms, but heights will be rising behind the Great Lakes trough. ...From IA and IL to western NY and PA... Numerous storms, possibly an MCS, are forecast to be ongoing over parts of MO, IL, and IA, within a deep theta-e plume emanating out of the southwest. Most guidance weakens this activity through the morning, but outflow and/or an MCV may support regeneration as 1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops downstream over IN, OH, and lower MI. Localized wind damage will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the late evening as far east as western NY, as moisture and instability spread east with increasing west/southwest 850 mb winds. ...MO...northeast OK...northern AR... Warm, moist and unstable conditions will develop during the day as upper ridging takes place. Early day convection may still be ongoing over southeast KS or southwest MO, and will have a tendency to propagate southwestward into OK and AR where strong instability will develop. Shear will be weak but localized severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more

MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... FOR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586... Valid 160713Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to move southeast out of eastern Wyoming and into/across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. The threat for hail and gusty winds will continue for another couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to move southeast from eastern Wyoming into and across the Nebraska Panhandle. These thunderstorms are slightly offset to the east-northeast from the best corridor of instability, being supported by warm-air advection originating within the corridor of better moisture and instability. The airmass feeding these thunderstorms has resulted in most-unstable CAPE values around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 50-60 knots. Given the organized nature of the ongoing thunderstorms, the potential for severe hail and gusty winds will continue for the next few hours before instability diminishes sufficiently -- and inhibition increases sufficiently -- to weaken overall thunderstorm intensity. ..Marsh.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... LAT...LON 41390401 42790418 42530176 41160141 41390401 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to preclude introducing a critical area. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of 40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains are unlikely. ..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A few strong storms are also possible from the Lower Great Lakes into western New England. ...Synopsis... An upper trough and attendant cold front will move from MT across the Dakotas during the day on Saturday, providing lift and increased deep-layer shear. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this front will support low 60s F dewpoints into this region, fueling scattered storms. To the south and east, a belt of moderate mid and high-level westerlies will remain over the central Plains, extending cyclonically eastward into New England. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist throughout this zone, supporting steep lapse rates aloft especially over the Plains where strong instability will develop due to 60s and 70s F dewpoints. A belt of 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb winds will maintain a feed of greater theta-e across the MO Valley, supporting bouts of severe storms. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes and New England strengthening deep-layer wind fields and aiding lift via cooling aloft and increased low-level warm advection out of the southwest. ...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into western MN by late evening, but likely weaker. ...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially, but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z. Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass, beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL. While significant severe is possible given the parameter space, will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks when predictability is greater. ...Northeast OH across NY and into western New England... Southwesterly low-level winds and heating will lead to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with around 35-40 kt of effective shear. Storms are expected to form near the lake breezes from northern OH into western NY, with damaging winds or marginal hail possible. While low-level shear will not be strong, effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may support a brief supercell. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/16/2019 Read more