Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHERN IDAHO...NEW MEXICO/TEXAS TRANS-PECOS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with threats of damaging winds and large hail will be possible through this evening across several portions of the country: the South Carolina vicinity, the Northeast, northern California to northern Utah/southern Idaho, New Mexico/Texas Trans-Pecos, and south Florida. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous outlook remains valid. Thunderstorms remain possible across a large portion of the CONUS, with stronger storms anticipated in a few areas, including portions of the Northeast, northern CA into the Great Basin, and southern High Plains. Each of these areas are addressed in the previous discussion. Additional details for the Northeast can be found in recently issued MCD #941, and for portions of northern California, north and central Nevada, and western Utah in MCD #942. In all, generally modest buoyancy and the lack of stronger flow aloft is expected to preclude a more widespread severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023/ ...SC Vicinity... A plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg centered on north GA will shift east into SC later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along and just ahead of a weak surface trough shifting slowly south across NC to upstate SC. The region will lie within the gradient of weak to moderate mid-level northwesterlies, well to the southwest of a deep upper low over the Canadian Maritimes. While low-level flow will remain weak and veered to the west-southwest, 15-25 kt effective bulk shear should support some multicell clustering and a threat for isolated damaging winds and severe hail. ...Northeast... A secondary mid-level impulse embedded within the larger-scale trough on the backside of the deep upper low over the Canadian Maritimes should aid in isolated to scattered higher-based convection. MLCAPE will remain weak owing to surface dew points only in the mid 40s to around 50 F. But moderate speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should foster small to marginally severe hail growth in the deeper cores. This combined with an inverted-v thermodynamic profile will support a threat for locally damaging winds. Refer to the SPC Fire Weather Outlook for additional information. ...Northern CA to northern UT/southern ID... An upper low will wobble over the San Joaquin Valley through tonight. A belt of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 600-1200 J/kg should develop at peak heating within a largely west/east-oriented arc across northern CA to northern UT/southern ID. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this buoyancy plume by late afternoon. While moderate mid-level flow will generally be displaced to the south, 20-30 kt southeasterlies around 500 mb will support some multicell clustering and a primary threat of isolated severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail will also be possible in deeper updrafts. ...NM and the TX Trans-Pecos... Downstream of the CA upper low, scattered thunderstorms will develop within a modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 700-1400 J/kg. The bulk of stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced west of the buoyancy/higher PW plume in AZ, as a low-amplitude mid-level ridge tries to hold over central NM. As such, convection will likely struggle to initially organize with sporadic severe gusts and small hail being the main threats. Somewhat greater effective shear should occur from the TX Trans-Pecos to the Raton Mesa during the early evening, where isolated marginally severe storms may occur. ...South FL... Morning convection along the southeast FL coast has yielded outflow that has pushed inland over the Everglades. Later afternoon convection will probably be focused along this boundary into southwest FL. While a 50-kt speed max at 500 mb was sampled in the 12Z Miami sounding, guidance is consistent with weakening mid-level winds through the afternoon. It still should remain sufficient for a transient cell or two with mid-level rotation, and supportive of a brief threat for severe wind/hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest forecast guidance. The Elevated area was expanded westward across lower MI to better cover areas of RH less than 30% and breezy afternoon winds to 15-20 mph. Across the Northeastern CONUS, weaker winds are expected D2/Wed, but another day of abnormally warm temperatures and lower afternoon RH may support elevated fire-weather potential given the lack of recent rainfall. The Elevated area was expanded into portions of DelMarVa to better overlap with receptive fuels. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will meander over the Northeast while an upper trough across the Southwest diminishes through the day tomorrow/Wednesday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may occur across southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. However, the diminishing of the upper trough suggests that the surface winds should be weak compared to Day 1, with Elevated highlights withheld this outlook. Elevated highlights have been introduced from Lower Michigan into New Jersey again as dry northwesterly surface flow beneath the upper trough should persist. Since appreciable rainfall is not expected with the potentially dry thunderstorms on Day 1, fuels should remain largely receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Seeds were not germinating in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. Corn and other row crops were struggling to get started. Hay growth was slow also, and grass was not recovering after cows grazed it. WV Metro News (Charleston, W.V.), June 6, 2023

Martin County commissioners enacted a burn ban on June 5, while a burn ban went into effect for Vermilion County on June 1. The Wabash Valley was very dry for lack of rain. WTWO TV (Terre Haute, Ind.), June 6, 2023

Lawns were going dormant in the Milwaukee area. A landscaping service called off all of their maintenance contracts, so they were not cutting any grass since growth had slowed. CBS58 (Milwaukee, Wis.), June 5, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061704
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Kelly

The fire chiefs of Margaretta, Oxford and Groton townships in Erie County have posted an open burning ban until conditions improve. FOX 8 News (Cleveland, Ohio), June 5, 2023

Crops and livestock in McHenry County were affected by the dry conditions. Pasture grass was not growing, and water sources were beginning to dry up. Farms could be in critical condition by June 10 if heavy rain does not fall, per a farmer. MyStateline.com (Rockford, Ill.), June 5, 2023

Young apple trees were visibly stressed by the dry weather, leading an orchard owner to begin irrigating the trees with pond water. He has also delayed planting corn and pumpkins until significant rainfall occurs. Cleveland 19 Online (Ohio), June 5, 2023

Parts of northeast Ohio have gone 16 days without rain. Some strawberry growers have had to irrigate as the berries need a lot of water before they are ready to be picked. A Valley View farm has a recorded message on their voicemail, notifying customers that strawberries and sweet corn may not be available. A hard March frost plus the hot, dry weather have devastated the berries. The corn, too, was struggling in the hot, dry weather. A Vermilion berry farm plans to reopen when the farm’s mid-season berry crop is ready. A Geauga County fruit farm is irrigating much more than usual to keep the fruit looking good. Cleveland.com (Ohio), June 5, 2023

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/05/23 ATTN...WFO...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-052240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON HIDALGO JIM HOGG KENEDY STARR WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 259 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 051830Z - 052300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Deep South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop and consolidate into a southward-moving cluster that spreads towards and across the Rio Grande this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Mcallen TX to 40 miles east southeast of Mcallen TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 34025. ...Grams Read more

MD 0939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CA
Mesoscale Discussion 0939 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023 Areas affected...Parts of northern CA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052026Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized strong/severe gusts and perhaps some hail may increase through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Despite generally limited low-level moisture, strong diurnal heating has resulted in modest destabilization across parts of northern CA, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms have already initiated, and additional development is expected through the remainder of the afternoon, especially across terrain-favored areas. Deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak, but midlevel easterly flow to the north of a mid/upper-level low near the coast of southern CA will support westward-moving cells/clusters through the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated hail potential with initial storm development across relatively higher elevation areas. With very steep low-level lapse rates, some threat for localized strong/severe gusts will accompany any stronger outflow-driven clusters that spread into the lower elevations. The severe threat is expected to remain too marginal and isolated for watch issuance. ..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... LAT...LON 41452364 41982231 41862089 41142046 40312010 39902042 39722101 39602210 39482326 39922370 40992394 41452364 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible across several areas of the country this afternoon and evening. The most likely corridor for severe storms appears to be over Deep South Texas through this afternoon into the evening. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous outlook remains valid. Thunderstorms remain possible across a large portion of the CONUS, with pockets of stronger storms possible over the southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont, the Sierra and central valley of CA, western MT, south FL and south TX. Each of these areas is addressed in the discussion appended below. Greatest severe coverage is still expected across south TX, where a few supercells have developed along the outflow boundary moving westward across the region. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023/ ...Deep South TX... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northwest Gulf to the Corpus Christi vicinity of the TX Coastal Plain near a minor mid/upper trough. On the backside of this trough, a belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies (near 40 kts at 500-mb per 12Z BRO sounding) will slacken through this afternoon. This flow regime should remain sufficient for potential supercell development towards the Lower Rio Grande Valley where low to mid 70s surface dew points and nearly full insolation are prevalent. With minimal MLCIN amid modest mid-level lapse rates, 12Z HREF members (outside of the HRRR) and the RRFS are fairly consistent in backbuilding convection across Deep South TX through late afternoon. A south-moving cluster with embedded supercells may develop with a threat for both severe hail and wind until convection spreads into Tamaulipas by early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... A deep upper low will persist off the New England Coast today. Peripheral influence of this low will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level north-northwesterlies extending to the southern Appalachians through this evening. This will overlap with the eastern extent of the surface-based instability plume from the TN Valley/Deep South. Pervasive low clouds adjacent to the high terrain should gradually decrease through the day, with convective initiation likely to begin over the high terrain where breaks are already evident. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop and attempt to spread southeast, but may tend to weaken with southeast extent in the Carolinas and backbuild west given the orientation of the instability plume. This should result in a corridor of isolated damaging wind and severe hail during the late afternoon to early evening focused along the lee of the high terrain. ...CA... An upper low spinning off the southern CA Coast should gradually shift inland north of the L.A. Basin by early morning. While its attendant strong mid-level jet will remain confined south of the border over Baja CA, a belt of enhanced south to southeasterlies will curl around the east to northeast semi-circle of the trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most likely over the Sierra NV towards the higher terrain of northern CA and separately towards the western portion of the Transverse Ranges in southern CA where upslope flow will occur. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe wind and hail, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South FL... 30-40 kt mid-level westerlies should persist across the southern third of the peninsula downstream of the minor mid/upper trough over the western Gulf. With generally northeasterly surface winds, weak flow through 3 km, and some backing of winds in the mid to upper levels, mid-level updraft rotation will probably remain relatively transient. Given the strength of the mid-level flow, a few of the stronger cells might produce marginally severe wind and hail during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Western MT... A minor mid-level impulse will continue to drift north from ID into northwest MT. Its attendant cloudiness this morning will slow diabatic heating immediately ahead of it near the ID/MT border, but more robust boundary-layer warming will occur farther downstream in parts of western to north-central MT. With just modest enhancement to mid-level southerlies, effective bulk shear will remain subdued from 20-30 kts. In addition, modest mid-level lapse rates will further temper updraft acceleration. Overall severe threat appears rather marginal, but a few severe wind and hail events may occur. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Great Lakes and Northeast... Confidence has increased that low-level wind fields will strengthen in the wake of the backdoor cold front moving through the eastern US. Aided by stronger flow aloft on the backside of the lingering upper trough, occasional gusts to 15-20 mph are possible across portions of lower MI, northern OH, PA and into portions of NY and NJ D2/Tuesday. With abnormally warm temperatures expected to continue, afternoon RH values of 25-35% will aid in the drying of area fuels. The dry and breezy conditions will support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern for tomorrow/Tuesday will be quite similar to Day 1, with mid-level troughs meandering over the Southwest and Northeast. The trough over the Southwest will support 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights for parts of southern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. Dry northerly surface flow will occur yet again over the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Still, forecast surface wind speeds appear too low to address with fire weather highlights this outlook, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A 30-day burn ban for York County took effect on June 5 as conditions were dry, stream and groundwater levels were low, and no significant rain was in the forecast. Local fire chiefs and a forest fire warden with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources were concerned about the fire danger and threat to life and property. KCUR-FM 89.3 (Kansas City, Mo.), June 5, 2023

Kansas wheat farmers were expected to harvest the smallest wheat crop since 1957 as drought hindered germination and growth of the crop. Kansas flour mills were anticipated to buy wheat from Eastern Europe for the first time. In some parts of the state, farmers do not see the crop as being worthy of harvesting, so they are spraying it with herbicide to kill it and collect insurance. One farmer noted that depression was evident among farmers with the ongoing drought and having to destroy the crop. KCUR-FM 89.3 (Kansas City, Mo.), June 5, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 4 22:19:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 4 22:19:01 UTC 2023.