SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms may develop across
parts of the southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex, and lower Mississippi
Valley on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be
possible across the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley, with
some potential for very large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or
two across parts of north and central Texas.
...Synopsis...
On the large scale, a seasonably deep upper-level trough will shift
slowly eastward across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS on
Saturday, as a notable upper ridge remains in place from the
northern High Plains into the Canadian Prairies, and a longwave
trough generally remains in place from the Great Lakes into much of
the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move through
the northern and eventually central Plains, with a frontal wave
expected to move southeastward somewhere across NE/KS, and another
weak surface wave potentially developing near a surface trough
across the southern High Plains.
...ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions...
A thunderstorm cluster or loosely organized MCS may be ongoing
somewhere across OK/north TX/western AR Saturday morning, aided by
low-level warm advection. Some rejuvenation and/or redevelopment
along the gust front will be possible by late morning into early
afternoon into parts of the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions, as rather
strong heating and destabilization occurs downstream of any morning
convection. Scattered damaging winds and isolated hail will be
possible if this scenario does evolve on Saturday. Any storm cluster
or MCS would likely tend to lose organization as it moves toward the
lower MS Valley, due to weaker deep-layer shear and low-level inflow
with eastward extent, though some damaging wind threat could persist
with any remnant cluster into central/southern MS. A few strong
multicells could also develop across parts of AR/MS ahead of any
outflow-driven cluster during the afternoon, within a warm, buoyant,
and uncapped environment.
...Parts of north/central into east TX...
Confidence is rather high regarding the development of severe
thunderstorms somewhere across central/north TX Saturday afternoon,
as a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough moves across the
region and an outflow boundary potentially spreads into the area
from the north. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding
the position of the outflow boundary (if any) during the afternoon.
In general, scattered storm development will be possible near any
outflow boundary, and also along a diffuse surface trough/dryline
that may gradually mix eastward during the afternoon.
Strong heating of a favorably moist environment will support strong
to locally extreme buoyancy near/south of any outflow boundary, and
along/east of the weak surface trough/dryline. Midlevel
west-northwesterly flow will not be overly strong, but sufficient to
support 30-40 kt of effective shear (greater where surface winds are
locally backed), and initial development may quickly evolve into
supercells with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized
severe gusts. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, depending
on mesoscale details regarding the orientation of any outflow
boundary and the extent of modification on the cool side of the
boundary.
With time, storm clustering may result in some upscale growth, with
a threat of damaging winds and embedded hail spreading
south-southeastward Saturday evening into portions of
central/southeast TX. Storms will eventually move into a region of
weaker deep-layer shear and increasing MLCINH, but some severe
threat may reach as far as the upper TX coast Saturday night.
...Central Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal
regime across the High Plains, and along/ahead of the cold front
from central/eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO. Deep-layer flow/shear
will generally remain rather weak, with some uncertain potential for
locally enhanced shear near any MCVs. One or more weakly organized
clusters may eventually evolve and move east/southeastward with time
across the region, with an attendant threat of isolated hail and
localized severe gusts.
..Dean.. 06/09/2023
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