Aggregator

Corn leaves in Knox County were starting to roll from drought stress. Some research suggests that some yield loss could occur when leaves are rolling for about four consecutive days or more. Soybeans were stressed from the lack of rain also. WTHI TV 10 (Terre Haute, Ind.), June 7, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 7 22:10:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072150Z - 072315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional instances of severe hail and wind are possible with the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated enough such that a WW issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells have developed over the past hour across the TX Trans Pecos region. A mid-level shortwave trough and associated 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates continue to overspread upper 50s/low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in increasing buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer ascent to support the continued intensification of storms. Modest mid-level flow is also overspreading southwestern Texas, resulting in lengthy hodographs and accompanying 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. Large hail may accompany the stronger storms, with severe gusts also possible (given the well-mixed boundary layer and 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates). However, the overall severe threat should remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 30250461 31060520 31520556 31900493 32030393 32000250 31530176 30970141 30410157 30080230 29910382 30250461 Read more

Grass was growing more slowly in Peoria so lawn care companies were mowing less frequently. WEEK (East Peoria, Ill.), June 7, 2023

Drought has caused the level of Lake Afton to drop so low that a boat ramp was closed. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), June 7, 2023

Hay cuttings in Van Buren County in north central Arkansas were down a quarter to a third as dry weather took a toll. Hay growers were concerned about a second cutting or having to feed the first cutting of hay for lack of pasture growth. Hills were drying up quickly in the Jackson County area. Many water holes were dry, and non-diverse forage areas were struggling. Stuttgart Daily Leader (Ark.), June 6, 2023

Grass was growing more slowly in the St. Louis area, so lawn care companies were finding that lawns did not need to be mowed, which has cut into income. However, some people were watering their lawn and flowers more frequently to keep them looking nice amid the dry weather. KMOV (St. Louis, Mo.), June 6, 2023

A burn ban was issued for Sandy Township by the fire chief, due to severe drought conditions. GantDaily (Clearfield, Pa.) June 7, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS OF THE CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with wind and hail remain possible in several areas of the country this afternoon and evening: the southern High Plains, the South Carolina vicinity, south to east Florida, the interior Northwest, and the eastern Dakotas. ...20Z Update... Some minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm lines across NC/VA, but severe probabilities remain unchanged. The potential for a supercell or two late this afternoon into this evening remains evident across the TX Trans Pecos, with generally more disorganized threats scattered elsewhere across the CONUS. For more information regarding the short-term threats, see MCD 945 across Florida, MCD 946 across South Carolina, and MCD 947 across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 06/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... A southern-stream upper jet will gradually expand east across much of northern Mexico. Within the left-exit region of this jet, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos and eastern NM. Proximity of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will yield weak deep-layer shear north of the Trans-Pecos, with the latter seeing strengthening flow during the late afternoon into the evening. Here, a couple supercells should form with a primary threat of isolated large hail before clustering towards the Rio Grande. Farther north, loosely organized multicell clusters should dominate with sporadic occurrences of severe hail and wind possible through early tonight. ...Southeast... Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be commencing across the south to eastern FL peninsula, with additional storms likely to form later this afternoon near a southward-sagging cold front in the SC vicinity. Belts of 30-40 kt west-southwesterlies will persist across central to south FL ahead of a low-amplitude trough over the east-central Gulf and along the frontal zone to the south of the amplified trough across the Northeast. While low-level flow will be weak over FL and predominately westerly over the SC vicinity, adequate effective bulk shear will exist for transient supercell and multicell structures capable of isolated damaging winds and lower-end severe hail. ...Northeast CA to southwest MT... A weakening upper low will drift northeast from southeast CA into southern NV. This will result in gradual decay of the mid-level wind field. However, adequate speed shear from the mid to upper levels should still support semi-organized multicell clustering later this afternoon, mainly across southern to eastern OR and the southern half of ID. Similar to yesterday, isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, with small to marginally severe hail also possible. ...Eastern Dakotas... A mid to upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the central Dakotas. A pocket of moderate buoyancy should develop across a portion of the eastern Dakotas where boundary-layer dewpoints can hold from 60-64 F. While deep-layer flow will remain weak, directional change with height from light low-level south-southeasterlies to weak mid-level northerlies may yield a strip of 15-20 kt effective bulk shear. A few marginally severe wind and hail events from pulse to weakly organized multicells remain possible during the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

Williamsport and Old Lycoming Township also issued burn bans through June 16. Hepburn Township issued an immediate outdoor burning ban through June 16. Williamsport Sun-Gazette (Pa.), June 7, 2023

A burn advisory notice was issued for Lycoming County on June 6 as grass turned yellow and brown and fires were more common. Record low groundwater levels and stream levels, very dry conditions, and no significant rainfall in the forecast have elevated the potential for wildfires to “very high” throughout the county, according to the director of the Lycoming County Department of Public Safety. Williamsport Sun-Gazette (Pa.), June 7, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes; localized fire-weather conditions will remain possible across the Great Lakes D2/Thursday, but noticeably weaker winds should be less favorable for widespread fire concerns. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to slowly sag southward along the East Coast while weak, cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the western U.S. tomorrow/Thursday. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the central and eastern CONUS. Dry low-level air will continue to drift southward from the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Carolina Piedmont during the afternoon. At the moment, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be weak, with fire weather highlights withheld this outlook. Likewise, seasonably dry low-level air will meander across the Southwest, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Many blueberry growers in Van Buren County were irrigating to keep their blueberry crop looking good amid the drought. On the bright side, the hot, dry weather has limited the amount of fungus on the plants. WMUK (Kalamazoo, Mich.), June 7, 2023

Indianapolis’ water provider, Citizens Energy Group, encourages its customers to conserve water and limit lawn watering amid abnormally dry conditions. Indy Star (Indianapolis, Ind.), June 7, 2023

The Eastern Shore counties of Northampton and Accomack remained in a drought advisory, despite recent rainfall. The drought advisories for other parts of the state were lifted in mid-May. WESR-FM (Onley, Va.), June 7, 2023 The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued the drought watch advisory for five of the Drought Evaluation Regions due to current drought conditions and to make the public aware that dryness could pose a problem this year. The affected areas include 28 counties and 11 cities. These are the regions and localities in the advisory: Chowan: Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Prince George, Southampton, Surry, and Sussex counties, and the cities of Emporia and Franklin. Eastern Shore: Accomack and Northampton counties. Northern Coastal Plain: Caroline, King George, King William, King and Queen, Essex, Richmond, Westmoreland, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Lancaster, and Northumberland counties. Southeast Virginia: Isle of Wight County, and the cities of Suffolk, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach. York-James: Charles City, James City, New Kent, and York counties, and the cities of Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, and Williamsburg. WCAV-TV (Charlottesville, Va.), April 26, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 6 22:12:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023 Areas affected...South Carolina into extreme eastern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062155Z - 062330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms through the evening, with a gradual weakening trend likely after sunset. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across SC over the past hour or so, with MRMS mosaic radar data indicating 30 dBZ echo tops exceeding 45 kft and MESH showing hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. Shear across the region is poor, though mid 60s F surface dewpoints amid 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis) is contributing to 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. The stronger pulse storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps an instance of severe hail. After sunset, nocturnal cooling should result in waning storm intensity. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated at best and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34748269 34898170 34657984 34297932 33667940 33027969 32658011 32368066 32208104 32258139 32928248 33738287 34748269 Read more

MD 0943 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and northern New Mexico...far southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062031Z - 062230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across portions of far eastern Arizona and New Mexico. A few of these storms have produced nickel to quarter size hail across eastern Arizona and northeastern New Mexico. Surface objective analysis indicates daytime heating yielding around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE atop steep lapse rates through the profile. Increasing southerly flow from a mid-level jet max across Arizona has led to around 20 kts of shear, which is largely speed shear as winds are uniform in direction with height. This environment will favor multi-cell clusters, a few of which may produce instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Weak shear for organization is expected to keep coverage of this threat too localized to warrant watch issuance. ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 35810577 36370543 36680528 37120485 37260471 37420443 37570405 37430317 37090314 35790322 35220332 33780435 33370443 32750495 32720496 32490615 32630654 33070726 33620774 33750811 33970856 34320870 34610885 35010888 35310879 35480871 35320801 35340698 35810577 Read more