Aggregator

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 444 WTPZ41 KNHC 052038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved, with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just east of the surface circulation. Based on this and a consensus of the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next day or so. By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass. The NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually reliable intensity consensus guidance. The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the north. By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering before dissipating next week. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the various consensus models. Although the track forecast is currently off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052037 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023 Dora has become significantly better organized over the past six hours, with a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside a cold central dense overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 100-120 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in best agreement with the subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. As noted in the last several advisories, Dora continues moving westward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to build westward for the next three days or so, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while it passes well south of Hawaii early next week. There has been little change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is again almost identical to the old track. Dora is moving over sea surface temperatures near 27C, and it is currently in a light-shear environment. This is at least partly responsible for the current intensification. The intensity guidance suggests this round of intensification should be almost over, although there is some uncertainty in this since it underestimated how strong the storm would get today. Based on the current trends and the current guidance, the intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by some weakening. After 48 h, while Dora should remain over 27C sea surface temperatures and in light shear through 96 h, it is expected to encounter a drier environment and an area of upper-level convergence. These factors should lead to continued gradual weakening, with the caveat that there is a large spread in the guidance on how much weakening will occur. The early part of the intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the intensity guidance, while the 60-120 h portion is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.3N 134.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA REGAINS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY... ...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Aug 5 the center of Dora was located near 13.3, -134.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.7 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through the weekend followed by a turn toward the west-northwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected and the cyclone should quickly become a remnant low in 3 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Eugene will remain mostly off the southwest Mexican coast. The outer edges of rainfall from the depression may produce 1 to 2 inches of rain along the coastal sections of the southwestern Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and the southern portion of Baja California Sur. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 the center of Eugene was located near 19.2, -107.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday over portions of the Midwest and Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough now over the Dakotas will continue into the Midwest and parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys on Sunday. Multiple convectively augmented shortwave troughs/MCVs are expected to exist within the Great Lakes region as well as the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure systems are forecast within the Lower Great Lakes and the Mid-Missouri Valley. A cold front is expected to be moving through the southern Plains. A warm front will be present within the Ohio Valley into perhaps parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Confidence is highest in convection occurring with a shortwave trough/MCV that moves out of Nebraska/Iowa on Saturday night. Convection may be ongoing into parts of eastern Iowa/western Illinois early in the period. There is some uncertainty on the degree of destabilization as there will likely be some impact in the wake of two MCVs moving out of the area early in the period. The greatest amount of surface heating is still expected from parts of central/southern Illinois and southern Indiana southward into Tennessee. Storm coverage will be maximized near the MCV, but other development may occur farther south along the cold front as well. Strong/damaging wind gusts are the primary threat expected, but some large hail could occur as well. There could be a more concentrated area of wind damage potential in southern Illinois/Indiana, but confidence is too low for an increase in wind probabilities. ...Southeast... An MCV from convection in the southern Plains will move into the Mid-South/Southeast during the afternoon. Strong surface heating of a moist airmass and forcing from the MCV could promote development of a cluster of storms. The location of this activity is a bit uncertain, but wind damage risk is probable where development occurs given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates. ...Mid-Atlantic... An MCV is forecast to move out of eastern Kentucky/Tennessee. Given cloud cover expected with this feature, downstream destabilization is far from certain especially given the poor mid-level lapse rates expected. Isolated wind damage may occur with a few stronger storms. Should an area of greater surface heating/storm intensity become apparent, wind probabilities could be increased. ...Eastern Colorado... Moderate mid-level winds will persist across the Divide in the wake of the mid-level trough. Modestly moist post-frontal upslope flow may be enough to initiate a few strong storms. Wind profiles would favor some potential for at least small hail. Currently, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to a greater threat of large hail. Hail probabilities will be withheld for now. ..Wendt.. 08/05/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated area of severe thunderstorms with potential for destructive wind and hail is expected across parts of the south-central Great Plains the remainder of this afternoon through tonight. Potential for a few tornadoes will exist separately over the Mid-Missouri and Wabash Valleys during the late this afternoon to early evening. ...20Z Update... Weak warm advection activity from far southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma has tempered destabilization especially for southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. Given these observational trends along with model solutions that have generally handled this activity better, wind probabilities have been reduced for these areas. Even with some stabilization remaining into northeast Oklahoma, the low-level jet still may support an organized MCS moving into central/northeast Oklahoma tonight. Probabilities remain unchanged in northeast Oklahoma and have been increased into parts of central Oklahoma. Given the potential for clustering in parts of Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi, wind probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Ongoing activity will move into strongly buoyant airmass where temperatures have risen into the upper 90s to low 100s F. See mesoscale discussion #1846 for more short-term details across these areas. ..Wendt.. 08/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a rather complex upper-air pattern with several important features that will influence the severe threat this afternoon into tonight. An MCV located over the southeast KS/northeast OK vicinity will continue to move east across the Ozarks during the day. Another MCV over IL will gradually shift east into IN by this evening. A mid-level low will move little over SD during the period, while a belt of stronger mid- to upper-level flow associated with an upper jet noses into the central High Plains. In the low levels, extensive outflow is evident over much of the northern half of OK into KS in wake of earlier morning thunderstorm activity near the OK/KS border. Easterly low-level flow will aid in maintaining moist conditions into eastern CO southward to the Raton Mesa. A narrow moist plume will protrude northward from eastern NE/western IA into southeast SD ahead of a gradually eastward-moving cool front. Low-level confluence will aid in focusing thunderstorm development over the lower Wabash Valley beginning early this afternoon through early evening. ...Eastern CO/northeast NM into the TX Panhandle and KS/OK... Not much change from previous forecast thinking. Convective outflow late this morning arcs westward across central OK through the central TX Panhandle. Near and north of the outflow, late morning thunderstorms over OK may continue to linger into the mid afternoon across the northern half of OK and pose an isolated risk for severe gusts. The initial thunderstorm development and more appreciable severe risk will probably focus near the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide towards mid-afternoon. Moist upslope flow beneath the left exit region of an upper jet overspreading the central High Plains will facilitate a favorable setup for supercells. Potential will exist for regenerative supercells spreading east-southeast off the higher terrain. A few of these may become long-lived and capable of producing baseball to softball-sized hail centered on the southeast CO vicinity given highly elongated mid to upper hodographs and large buoyancy amid very steep mid-level lapse rates. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX during the evening will favor increasing convective development with multiple severe thunderstorm clusters spreading across western and southern KS, the Panhandles, and western to northern OK. Severe wind gusts will become more prolific as this occurs, which should include potential for sporadic gusts from 70-85 mph. ...Ozarks/Mid South... Ongoing thunderstorm cluster late this morning will continue to move east into a destabilizing and very unstable airmass across northern AR. Strong heating via mostly clear skies will result in temperatures warming into the 90s with mid to upper 70s dewpoints. Forecast soundings show a moderate mid-level flow enhancement via the approaching disturbance and MLCAPE 3000-4500 J/kg. Although uncertainty is high regarding details, it is possible some rejuvenation to the thunderstorm activity occurs on the periphery of the deeper cores going forward into the early-mid afternoon. If this occurs, widely scattered strong to severe gusts are possible into the early evening. ...Mid-MO Valley vicinity... A mid-level low over central SD will drift east with stronger destabilization confined downstream of it from southeast SD to eastern NE and far western IA. Early afternoon convective development will initially be most pronounced across southeast SD and likely arc southward into at least northeast NE before spreading into northwest IA later. Weaknesses in the mid-level wind profile may yield a linear cluster type mode, but some enlargement to the low-level hodograph, especially in the SD/NE/IA border area, should foster low-level updraft rotation capable of producing a couple tornadoes. Otherwise, slow-moving linear clusters will yield a threat for isolated severe hail and wind persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN vicinity... An MCV over central IL will drift east into IN through tonight. Continued destabilization despite appreciable cloud cover will become increasingly conducive for scattered storms to develop by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show a spatially confined corridor of favorable low-level SRH overlapping the northeast extent of the surface-based instability plume in southern parts of IL/IN. A few supercells will probably evolve as storms mature through the late afternoon/early evening and move east into south-central IN. Any vigorous updraft/supercell will be capable of at least an isolated, short-term risk for a tornado given the wind profile/moist low levels. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated across the Southwest. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no further updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns are anticipated again for Sunday afternoon across parts of central TX - largely driven by very dry fuels and hot temperatures - as well as the Southwest/Four Corners region. ...Southern Plains... Critically dry fuels and anomalously hot temperatures (reaching or exceeding 100-105 F) will result in another day of elevated fire weather concerns for parts of central TX. A modest influx of Gulf moisture will limit RH reductions to the mid 20s for most locations, and ensemble guidance shows only limited potential for sustained winds of 15+ mph. These factors will modulate the overall fire concern, but recent reports of active fire behavior within this hot/dry regime and the potential for wind gusts between 15-20 mph warrant maintaining fire weather highlights. ...Southwest/Four Corners... A belt of 20-30 knot mid-level flow is expected to become established across northern AZ/NM by Sunday afternoon as an upper trough shifts east into the Plains. While low-level gradient winds are expected to be modest, deep diurnal mixing will not only drive RH reductions into the teens, but will also allow for efficient downward momentum transfer, resulting in frequent gusts up to 20-30 mph. Elevated to locally critical conditions appear likely north/northeast of the Mogollon Rim into northwest NM and adjacent parts of southern UT/CO. Fuels across this region continue to dry and should be receptive to fire spread by Sunday afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin... Latest ensemble guidance shows a weak convective signal across parts of southern ID, northern NV, and northern UT Sunday afternoon as a weak upper low migrates east. Forecast soundings from across these regions show adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms with deep, well-mixed boundary layers and PWAT values on the order of 0.6 to 0.8 inches. These thermodynamic conditions are favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms, but only marginally dry fuels should mitigate the overall fire concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located more than 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and newly formed Tropical
Depression Six-E, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
the Baja California peninsula.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0585 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 585 SEVERE TSTM MO 042215Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass exists across northern and central Missouri this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within this environment, with moderate vertical shear helping to organize a few of these storms into supercells. Some large hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with the strongest storms. There is a low chance for a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knob Noster MO to 25 miles east northeast of Columbia MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 585 SEVERE TSTM MO 042215Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass exists across northern and central Missouri this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within this environment, with moderate vertical shear helping to organize a few of these storms into supercells. Some large hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with the strongest storms. There is a low chance for a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knob Noster MO to 25 miles east northeast of Columbia MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1835 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584... FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1835 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into the New England region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584... Valid 042213Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 584, and may extend into portions of southern/southeastern Pennsylvania over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue to develop along the cold frontal boundary draped across the New England region. Recent GOES imagery shows transient nature of some cells, possibly due to undercutting outflow from prior convection, but cooling cloud top temperatures in IR imagery as well as tight clustering of in-cloud lightning with developing storms suggest robust convection remains possible. Recent GOES-derived winds and cloud heights suggest that 40-50 knot anvil-level winds, combined with weaker low-level flow, continue to support nearly 30 knots of deep-layer shear orthogonal to the frontal axis. Given adequate buoyancy over the region, this will maintain the potential for additional discrete convection (including a few supercells) prior to the onset of stronger nocturnal stabilization later this evening. The approach of a 300 mb jet max into the Mid-Atlantic region will augment broad-scale ascent across eastern PA, and may allow for the severe threat to continue towards the MD border. Portions of WW 584 have been extended to address this concern, but further downstream watch issuance is uncertain given a diminishing thermodynamic environment towards the coast and the influence of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours. ..Moore.. 08/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 40407899 41147793 42727542 44077236 43997176 43797107 43387101 42537170 40797447 39737588 39657664 39667790 39747879 39877906 40117915 40407899 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Central Texas and Southwestern Oklahoma... A cold front will sag southward Sunday and stall near the Red River through late Monday, bringing a shift to northwesterly flow across southwestern Oklahoma/northwestern and north-central Texas. This will also bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the front, with low confidence in wetting precipitation outside of southwestern Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle and areas right along the Red River. Elevated to near critical fire weather will be possible before the passage of the front. However, uncertainty in where sustained winds around 15 mph or greater will be, potential cloud cover and increase in RH behind the front, and how much wetting precipitation will occur limit inclusion of any areas at this time. Lightning strikes may lead to new starts in the absence of wetting rain. The front will lift northward on Monday with warming and drying conditions to return. Across central Texas, continued dry conditions are expected with 100+ F degree temperatures forecast through the extended period. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will be possible each day. Drought stress and extreme heat have led to rapidly drying fuels (with ERCs around the 97th percentile) within this region. Given the very critical nature of fuels, Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns can be expected each afternoon through the extended. Overall, confidence in coverage of sustained 15 mph or greater winds precludes the need to include any Critical probabilities at this time. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Westerly flow further enhanced by strengthening mid-level flow atop the ridge will bring drying conditions across the Southwest. Lingering mid-level moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim in Arizona. Fuels within much of the Great Basin and Southwest have seen wetting rainfall from recent monsoonal activity which will limit fire weather concerns. Less rainfall was observed across far northeastern Arizona and northern New Mexico. ERCs within this region are in the 75th-90th percentile. A 40 percent delineation has been maintained on Sunday and Monday to characterize this threat. This threat may continue Tuesday before high pressure builds back in across the four corners with moisture steadily increasing into late in the period. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1834 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NE...NORTHEAST CO...NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1834 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Areas affected...Western NE...Northeast CO...Northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042152Z - 042315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for hail and localized severe gusts may increase into this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity late this afternoon from northeast CO into western NE, to the south of a upper-level cyclone over the northern High Plains. A surface low is located near over far southeast MT, with a surface trough extending southeastward toward the NE Sandhills region, and then southwestward toward the NE Panhandle. A secondary low-level confluence zone is noted over northeast CO. Storms will likely continue to increase near these surface features and spread eastward into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and modest effective shear (generally 25-35 kt) will support a mix of strong multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an initial threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. An outflow-driven cluster may eventually evolve and move somewhere across northern KS/southern NE later this evening, with at least an isolated severe-wind threat. While the environment is not particularly favorable for longer-lived supercells or a well-organized MCS, watch issuance is possible given the potential for increasing coverage of storms with at least some severe hail/wind threat into this evening. ..Dean/Mosier.. 08/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41230285 42220161 42550102 42860046 42619993 42119972 40889983 40020039 39140135 38870153 38670241 39000344 41230285 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2023 20:37:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2023 21:23:10 GMT