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Much of Northwest Montana will be under Stage 2 fire restrictions starting on Saturday, Aug. 5. The affected federal, state and private jurisdictions in stage 2 restrictions were Flathead National Forest, including Hungry Horse, Glacier View; Swan Lake, Spotted Bear and Tally Ranger Districts to include the Great Bear Wilderness, Mission Mountain Wilderness, and the Flathead National Forest portion of the Bob Marshall Wilderness; Kootenai National Forest, including Rexford, Fortine, Three Rivers, Libby and Cabinet Ranger Districts; Glacier National Park; US Fish & Wildlife Service; Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, including Kalispell, Libby, Stillwater, Swan and Plains Units; Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks, Region 1 within Flathead County, Lake County, Lincoln County, Sanders County; Flathead County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Lake County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Lincoln County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Sanders County– Stage 2 fire restrictions; Green Diamond was not allowing campfires on their lands; Flathead Ridge Ranch prohibited campfires on their lands; Southern Pine Plantation of Montana was not allowing campfires; Stimson Private Timber Company was not allowing campfires on their lands; and Stoltze Timber Company was not allowing campfires on their lands. On Aug. 7, Stoltze will close their land to public access of any kind. KPAX (Missoula, Mont.), Aug 3, 2023

St. Landry Parish authorities issued a burn ban in the parish effective immediately with the aim of reducing the number of grass fires occurring. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Aug 4, 2023

MD 1823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032149Z - 032345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for sporadic severe/damaging winds and large hail across lower Michigan through the evening hours. Given the limited nature of the threat, watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A broken line of cells moving onshore across northwest Lower MI have demonstrated transient signs of organization over the past hour per KGRR and KAPX imagery. This activity, including a cell along the eastern WI shore, has produced near-severe wind/hail over the past couple of hours, including a 57 mph wind gust and 0.75 inch hail. The regional thermodynamic and kinematic environment appear adequate for convective maintenance with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk wind difference values approaching 30 knots. The somewhat disorganized/clustered nature of the convection and modest deep-layer shear will modulate the overall severe threat to some degree, but sporadic severe hail and damaging winds appear possible over the next few hours as these storms spread southeast across Lower MI. ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 44038642 45028578 44878500 44458410 44038312 43678269 42858248 42348307 42208371 42518489 42948569 43178614 43398642 43688652 44038642 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-039-061-063-073-075-087-089-095-099-115- 121-123-125-032240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-032240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX WYC015-021-032240- Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 032100Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon/evening from the Front Range eastward into the Plains. The initial storms will be a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing isolated large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Through the evening, storm mergers should lead to upscale growth and an increase in the threat for severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Alliance NE to 30 miles southwest of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 581... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW CBM TO 25 ENE TCL TO 25 E ANB TO 15 NW ATL TO 35 WSW AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 ..LYONS..08/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-017-021-027-037-051-063-065-081-087-105-107-111-113- 117-121-123-125-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY COOSA ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE MACON PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA GAC009-021-035-045-053-063-077-079-089-097-113-121-125-133-141- 145-149-151-153-159-163-169-171-193-197-199-207-211-215-217-219- 221-225-231-237-247-249-255-263-265-269-285-289-293-297-301-303- 317-319-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 031905Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to persist through the afternoon while moving southeastward, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Tuscaloosa AL to 20 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 031905Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to persist through the afternoon while moving southeastward, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Tuscaloosa AL to 20 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into Northwest... Monsoonal moisture will linger over the northern Great Basin and Northwest on Day 3/Saturday. While the area will generally be beneath a midlevel trough and becoming displaced from the associated large-scale ascent, sufficient instability and modest forcing along/east of the Cascades should still support isolated high-based thunderstorms over central/eastern OR into northeast CA and northwest NV. If thunderstorms can form over this area, 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions. ...Central Texas into southwest Oklahoma... A continuation of 100 deg temperatures, 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts), and 20 percent RH, will support elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions on Day 3/Saturday -- exacerbated by critically dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Therefore, 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this risk. For Day 4/Sunday, a cold front and related northerly wind shift is expected over southern OK into north-central TX, which could impact any ongoing fires. While confidence in the development of 15 mph sustained surface winds is too low for Critical probabilities at this time, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed. For next week, a continuation of elevated fire-weather conditions is possible, though possible precipitation and the frontal passage casts uncertainty on the overall threat. ...Southwest... A warming/drying trend is expected during the extended forecast period across parts of the Southwest, as a large-scale ridge builds over southwest NM/southeast AZ. At the same time, a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will overspread the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. As a result, breezy surface winds and low RH should yield elevated to critical fire-weather conditions as fuels continue to dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday over northwest NM into northeast AZ -- where rainfall accumulations have been limited and confidence in the overlap of dry/breezy conditions is highest. Additional probabilities could eventually be needed depending on fuel trends during the next couple of days. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into Northwest... Monsoonal moisture will linger over the northern Great Basin and Northwest on Day 3/Saturday. While the area will generally be beneath a midlevel trough and becoming displaced from the associated large-scale ascent, sufficient instability and modest forcing along/east of the Cascades should still support isolated high-based thunderstorms over central/eastern OR into northeast CA and northwest NV. If thunderstorms can form over this area, 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions. ...Central Texas into southwest Oklahoma... A continuation of 100 deg temperatures, 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts), and 20 percent RH, will support elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions on Day 3/Saturday -- exacerbated by critically dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Therefore, 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this risk. For Day 4/Sunday, a cold front and related northerly wind shift is expected over southern OK into north-central TX, which could impact any ongoing fires. While confidence in the development of 15 mph sustained surface winds is too low for Critical probabilities at this time, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed. For next week, a continuation of elevated fire-weather conditions is possible, though possible precipitation and the frontal passage casts uncertainty on the overall threat. ...Southwest... A warming/drying trend is expected during the extended forecast period across parts of the Southwest, as a large-scale ridge builds over southwest NM/southeast AZ. At the same time, a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will overspread the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. As a result, breezy surface winds and low RH should yield elevated to critical fire-weather conditions as fuels continue to dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday over northwest NM into northeast AZ -- where rainfall accumulations have been limited and confidence in the overlap of dry/breezy conditions is highest. Additional probabilities could eventually be needed depending on fuel trends during the next couple of days. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 20:40:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 21:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032038 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. In addition, the eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two, although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night. Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt. The initial motion remains 265/16 kt. As mentioned before, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also nudged southward. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models. The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this, there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast shows modest intensification during that time. After 12 h, increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this time shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance. While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 490 FOPZ15 KNHC 032037 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 26 30(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 125W 50 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 48(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 21(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 10N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 ...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 121.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 121.8 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight. However, weakening is expected on Friday and Saturday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 3 the center of Dora was located near 14.4, -121.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

MD 1822 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1822 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...central portions of Alabama and Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 032024Z - 032230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts continues across WW 581, and will continue to expand southward with time into central portions of Alabama and Georgia. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an organized/nearly continuous band of strong/locally severe storms, extending west-to-east from northeastern Georgia to northwestern Alabama. The band is moving southeastward at 25 kt, with local gusts resulting in multiple areas of tree damage over the past hour. With gradual destabilization still underway, expect this band of storms to remain organized and continue moving southward over the next few hours. As storms encroach on the southwestern edge of the watch over the next hour or so, consideration of an areal WW extension -- or new WW issuance -- will become necessary. ..Goss.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33778832 33638722 33708573 33948408 34268314 33708237 31768322 31638601 31818796 33778832 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The primary change with this update was to add an Elevated area for parts of central Texas into southwest Oklahoma. While current indications are that sustained surface winds could be slightly weaker (around 10 mph with 15-20 mph gusts) than previous days, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates amid the gusty afternoon winds will still support elevated fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Farther west, only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Monsoon moisture will continue to expand west on D2/Friday with scattered wet/dry thunderstorms and an inverted-v thermal profile across portions of eastern Oregon, northeast California and northwest Nevada. ERC values in this region are mostly in the 90th percentile across this region, supporting new lightning starts. Slow storm motion and the potential for wetting rain under some cores precludes the need for a SctDryT area despite scattered storm coverage. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Columbia Basin on Friday as a weak surface low develops across northeast Washington. Winds are expected to be around 10 to 15 mph with relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent. ERCs are in the 90th to 95th percentile in this region. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted, given the dry and breezy conditions amid dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The primary change with this update was to add an Elevated area for parts of central Texas into southwest Oklahoma. While current indications are that sustained surface winds could be slightly weaker (around 10 mph with 15-20 mph gusts) than previous days, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates amid the gusty afternoon winds will still support elevated fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Farther west, only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Monsoon moisture will continue to expand west on D2/Friday with scattered wet/dry thunderstorms and an inverted-v thermal profile across portions of eastern Oregon, northeast California and northwest Nevada. ERC values in this region are mostly in the 90th percentile across this region, supporting new lightning starts. Slow storm motion and the potential for wetting rain under some cores precludes the need for a SctDryT area despite scattered storm coverage. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Columbia Basin on Friday as a weak surface low develops across northeast Washington. Winds are expected to be around 10 to 15 mph with relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent. ERCs are in the 90th to 95th percentile in this region. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted, given the dry and breezy conditions amid dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NY... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated threat for severe gusts and large hail will be later this afternoon into early tonight across parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... The only appreciable change made to the previous convective outlook was to adjust severe probabilities across parts of TN/AL/GA based on the evolution of the broken band of storms this afternoon over AL/GA. ..Smith.. 08/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023/ ...Central High Plains later this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest CO/southwest WY will begin to turn more eastward this afternoon/evening, with a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow expected to overspread the central High Plains this afternoon into early tonight. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints at or above 60 F in the post-frontal environment, along with daytime heating in cloud breaks, will drive moderate buoyancy this afternoon/evening from northeast CO eastward into northern KS. Diurnal convection is expected to first form by mid afternoon near or just east of the Front Range, and storms will subsequently spread eastward across east/northeast CO and southwest NE while gradually growing upscale through storm interactions. Isolated large hail will be possible the more discrete/initial storms that could have some supercell structures given modest hodograph length and effective bulk shear near 35 kt and midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. Damaging winds will become the primary threat this evening into early tonight, with a few swaths of 60-75+ mph winds possible. ...TN Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of an overnight MCS in MO has now progressed into southern middle TN and extreme northern AL, with a general weakening trend over the past few hours. Diurnal destabilization is ongoing to the south-southwest of the weakening storms from northeast MS across northern/central AL into northwest GA, but there is uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the ongoing storms. One possibility is for some intensification along the leading outflow as the convection moves toward northwest GA/northeast AL through early-mid afternoon, though the storms/outflow are not phased particularly well with the more unstable warm sector. Also, the stronger midlevel flow tends to lag the initial convection, and these concerns keep confidence low in the evolution of the afternoon storms (and any resultant wind damage threat). Aside from diurnal intensification, there will be the potential for late evening/early overnight storm formation in another west-northwest/east-southeast oriented band from TN into northern AL. Given the inherent uncertainty in the forecast and at least two possible storm scenarios, will only make minor changes to the ongoing outlook. ...NY to eastern Lower MI this afternoon into tonight... An embedded speed max is rotating east-southeastward over southern ON and will reach the Saint Lawrence Valley by late evening/early tonight. Some convection is ongoing in association with this shortwave trough and a surface cold front, and some low-level warming/moistening will occur ahead of the front from ON into northwest NY through this evening. The primary convective threat will likely to spread into northwest NY near or after sunset, but there will still be some potential for isolated damaging winds, especially if an storms evolve into an organized band prior to crossing into NY late this evening into tonight. Farther west into Lower MI, thunderstorm coverage is more in question, given that the stronger forcing for ascent will pass to the north of this area. Lapse rates/buoyancy and some modest enhancement to deep-layer vertical shear will conditionally favor the potential for isolated wind damage or some hail, but storm coverage is likely to remain rather isolated. Read more