Aggregator

Mandatory, nonessential water restrictions remained in place in Avoca and other towns in Pottawattamie County and the surrounding area since the end of May. Due to the high water demand, the Regional Rural Water Association’s water treatment plant has been running nonstop for the past 18 days without a moment of downtime for maintenance because people would run out of water if the plant were shut down. WOWT TV 6 (Omaha, Neb.), Aug 2, 2023

The Ogallala Aquifer beneath West Texas was being drawn down at a quick rate, due to drought and heat. Conservation was needed to protect the aquifer. KCBD (Lubbock, Texas), Aug 2, 2023

A burn ban was in effect for St. Tammany Parish for the next 14 days as extreme heat and drought increased the fire danger. WWL-TV (New Orleans, La.), Aug 3, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature during the next day or so, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not
far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Northeast on Friday afternoon. Additional strong storms are possible along a broad arc from the central Plains to the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Northeast will feature moderate westerly flow moving through its base during the period. A flattened mid-level anticyclone over the southwest border states will remain while a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow extends from the central Rockies across the central Great Plains and towards the southern Appalachians. ...Northeast... A cold front will push through the region during the period. Along this boundary, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning near the NY/Ontario border. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of 60s deg F dewpoints. Heating during the morning amidst cloud breaks will result in a moderately unstable airmass by midday into the early afternoon. A weak cap will erode and scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop in a broken band from PA north-northeast into New England by 17z. A mix of cells and linear structures will likely transition to mostly linear convection during the afternoon with widely scattered damaging gusts being the primary hazard. The thunderstorms will weaken by evening as they approach the coast. ...AR to Southern GA/Northern FL... Similar to Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Friday morning from eastern MO southeastward into the TN Valley. Remnant outflow and a zone of differential heating related to this early day activity will be focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Very moist low levels will contribute to moderate to strong instability. It remains unclear if/where a thunderstorm cluster will form during the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains... Not much change in forecast thinking at this point compared to the previous convective outlook. Moist, upslope low-level flow within moderately unstable environment will support thunderstorm development over western portions of the central High Plains by late afternoon. A weak boundary is forecast to develop southward across NE into KS with storm coverage increasing during the evening. Several thunderstorm clusters, initially posing a risk for hail and strong gusts, are expected to develop east/southeast and likely focus the majority of the isolated severe risk. ..Smith.. 08/03/2023 Read more

Des Moines Water Works employees raised the flashboards on the Raccoon River for the third consecutive year to increase the amount of water it can access as the river was 83% below its normal levels. The public is asked to voluntarily adhere to a watering schedule, based on one’s address. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Aug 2, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 2 22:19:20 UTC 2023.

MD 1815 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1815 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022209Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A severe wind threat will persist for another 1 to 2 hours across northern Utah. DISCUSSION...A cluster/broken line of thunderstorms has produced severe wind gusts across portions of the southern Salt Lake Basin over the past 1 to 2 hours. These storms continue to move north into a region with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This should support a continued threat for damaging wind gusts into the evening across northern Utah. Expect these storms to weaken by mid to late evening as storms move out of the greater instability and the boundary layer begins to cool. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC... LAT...LON 40541200 40501273 40711317 41311332 41871293 41981121 41711101 40901110 40631126 40541200 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into the Northwest... A plume of monsoonal moisture will be in place across parts of the northern Great Basin into the Northwest on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. This midlevel moisture atop a warm/deeply mixed boundary layer will yield sufficient instability for high-based thunderstorms -- aided by a series of subtle/low-amplitude midlevel impulses and possible MCVs crossing the region. 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in central OR into northeast CA/northwest NV will favor isolated dry thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Deeper monsoonal moisture over eastern OR will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, with storms becoming increasingly wet into western ID. The primary concern with this activity is lightning strikes along the peripheries of rain cores. Strong/erratic outflow winds are possible with thunderstorms each day given the deep/dry sub-cloud layer. ...Central Texas... Slightly weaker sustained surface winds on Day 3/Friday (compared to previous days) could limit the fire-weather threat briefly over central TX. With that said, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and critically dry fuels will still support elevated fire-weather conditions. Thereafter, an increase in surface winds is possible on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday, leading to increasing fire-weather concerns. Currently, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low to add probabilities, though highlights may eventually be needed. ...Southwest... Despite persistent thunderstorm activity across the Southwest over the last week, rainfall accumulations have generally been minimal with the exception of northwest AZ. By Day 3/Friday into next week, a warming/drying trend is expected across the Southwest, which combined with strengthening winds could result in increasing fire-weather concerns. Continued model differences on the overlap of strong winds/low RH over dry fuels casts uncertainty on where the fire-weather threat will be maximized, though probabilities/highlights could eventually be needed. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 21:32:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 21:32:09 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 407 WTPZ35 KNHC 022048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 ...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 115.6W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.6 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Friday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 2 the center of Dora was located near 15.4, -115.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 642 WTPZ25 KNHC 022047 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Portions of central Texas into southwest Oklahoma (along/west of the I-35 corridor) were upgraded to Critical with this update. Fuels across this area are becoming increasingly dry (95th+ percentile ERCs) given the persistent 100 deg afternoon temperatures and lack of rainfall. While sustained surface winds around 15 mph would typically be borderline for Critical highlights, frequent 20-25 mph gusts and the critically dry fuels should generally compensate for this. For additional details on the Day 2 fire-weather risk, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to deepen across central Kansas on Thursday which will tighten the pressure gradient across the southern Plains. Dry and breezy conditions (15 mph sustained winds and 20 to 30 percent relative humidity) are expected from central Oklahoma into central Texas with temperatures over 100F. These meteorological conditions, paired with critically dry fuels which continue to dry further each day, support an Elevated area across portions of the southern Plains on Thursday. Monsoon moisture will continue to drift west on Thursday, with isolated thunderstorms amid 0.75 to 1 inch PWAT values across portions of eastern Oregon, northeast California and northwest Nevada. These storms will be slow moving, but LCLs will be around 12kft, which will support mostly dry thunderstorms. In addition, 90th to 95th percentile ERCs should be in place across most of this region on Thursday. Therefore, an IsoDryT delineation is warranted on Thursday to cover the potential for new lightning starts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential appears to be over parts of the lower Missouri Valley region toward the lower Ohio Valley, this afternoon into evening. Severe gusts and large hail are expected, along with a marginal tornado threat. ...Discussion... The only change to the previous convective outlook was to remove low-severe probabilities in wake of the convective band over UT. ..Smith.. 08/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023/ ...MO and vicinity this afternoon through tonight... Overnight convection (associated with low-level warm advection) has been slowly weakening through the morning over MO. A couple of MCVs emanating from the overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward through the afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding the potential for diurnal convection along the residual front/outflow boundary across MO/northeast KS, given the presence of substantial cloud cover and the need for surface temperatures to warm well into the 90s to reduce convective inhibition. Will maintain the outlook area with no changes in this update, but will have to monitor for late afternoon storm development near the KS/MO border close to I-70. If storms form in this area, the environment will conditionally favor the potential for large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado, with a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Convection is expected to persist overnight with a renewed strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection. ...Central High Plains this afternoon/evening... Lingering low-level moisture across the central High Plains and surface heating in cloud breaks may again support scattered thunderstorm development to the east of the higher terrain later this afternoon into this evening. Vertical shear will be relatively weak, though a few strong outflow gusts will be possible. ...UT/northern AZ today... A well-defined MCV with associated convection is moving slowly northeastward from the lower CO River Valley toward UT. Strong surface heating/mixing will occur in advance of the ongoing convection, which will also coincide with a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow. The net result will be the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts with a broken band of convection spreading northeastward through the afternoon. Read more