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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... With a surface cold front now clearing the far southeastern tip of Florida (southeastern Dade County) and the Keys, and thunder potential overnight will remain offshore. Elsewhere, with dry/stable air spilling across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and a ridge prevailing over the West, no thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period. ..Goss.. 10/16/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the top of a mid-level ridge across the northern Rockies on Tuesday and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS for the end of the week. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather threat has ended over the eastern North Carolina vicinty. Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... A surface low now in the vicinity of southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay will move offshore this evening, as mid-level short-wave troughing continues to move eastward across the central Appalachians. Earlier warm-sector convection over far eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks has moved offshore, and with it, any potential for stronger storms. As such, MRGL risk is being removed from the outlook at this time. A few lightning strikes will remain possible, however, across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may persist this evening over South Florida, while lightning is not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through 15/12Z. ..Goss.. 10/15/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Subsequent
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible after that while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the eastern North
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The beginning of the extended forecast period will feature a large high pressure center across the Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Monday will traverse the top of the ridge across the northern Rockies and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm risk has diminished in the Mid-Mississippi Valley area. Severe weather will remain unlikely through the rest of the period. ...Discussion... Convection ongoing across parts of Iowa and Illinois continues to weaken this evening, as nocturnal cooling continues to yield steadily decreasing instability. This has resulted in a cessation of appreciable severe potential. Occasional lightning will be possible across the Midwest/Ohio Valley as the storm system associated with the convective activity advances eastward. A few thunderstorms across Deep South Texas, and southern Florida, may persist through the evening and into the overnight, while a few storms may develop later over portions of eastern South Carolina and vicinity. However, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/14/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week
while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Surface high pressure will dominate the United States early next week as a cool, continental airmass is in place across much of the CONUS. Lee troughing may return by the middle of the week and bring some dry and breezy conditions to the Plains and vicinity. However, relative humidity is not expected to be that low, and these breezy conditions are anticipated where fuels are currently moist and should remain so. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal through next week. ..Bentley.. 10/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Duck hunters in North Dakota will find fewer wetlands after the summer turned dry. The state Game and Fish Department’s annual fall wetland survey estimated the number of duck hunting wetlands holding water as being almost the same as last year’s estimate, but still 29% below the 2003-2022 long-term average. As of Oct. 5, nearly half of North Dakota was in drought. The number of duck hunting type wetlands -- seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands -- counted statewide during the fall survey was the sixth lowest since 2003. The northern edge of the state was 29% to 40% behind long-term averages. The northeastern region had its lowest number of duck hunting wetlands in 20 years. Some heavy rain has fallen since the survey was carried out in mid-September, so wetlands may be higher in some areas. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Oct 13, 2023

All of northwest Alabama was in drought, and the forecast offered no chances of significant rain. Local authorities were pleading with the public to avoid outdoor burning. Times Daily (Florence, Ala.), Oct 13, 2023

Wisconsin crop yields were better than expected. A farmer noted that the stalk was shorter than normal, but the grain filled out well. Wisconsin farmers planted about 3.9 million acres of corn last year. Most was harvested for grain, but 880,000 acres were cut for silage. Drought may lead to more acres being cut for silage this year. Wisconsin State Journal (Madison), Oct 11, 2023

Nebraska hunters were reminded to exercise caution to prevent inadvertently sparking a wildfire as 27% of the state was in severe to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. KFXL (Axtell, Neb.), Oct. 12, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Nebraska. ...Central Plains... An upper low will continue to move slowly east across NE through tonight, with a 70-80 kt midlevel jet pushing east into IA and northern MO. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves east across the same areas. Storms have generally decreased in intensity this evening due to the cooling air mass, except for farther south into east-central KS in closer proximity to the surface warm plume. 00Z soundings downstream indicate minimal instability overall, with little additional destabilization expected as a cooling boundary layer counteracts any cooling aloft. Shear will remain strong over northern areas, but waning instability should limit the overall severe risk. As such, a Marginal Risk will remain over the area for sporadic hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell.. 10/13/2023 Read more