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No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across southern ID/northern UT and downstream of a larger trough over the eastern Pacific. A few thunderstorms have been observed this evening in association with weak buoyancy/appreciable ascent with the ID/UT disturbance. This activity may linger for a couple of more hours before the zone of stronger ascent moves east into a more dry environment farther east in WY. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions reside over much of the Lower 48 states owing to building surface high pressure over the north-central U.S. and a departing mid-level shortwave trough over New England. ..Smith.. 10/22/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Norma, located over the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, north of Cabo San Lucas.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of shower
and thunderstorm activity. The upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for development of this system during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week. The system is forecast to meander or drift generally
northward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 the center of Norma was located near 23.5, -109.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Hay production in Mississippi was down at least 28% this year, due to drought. Hay growers usually get three cuttings per year, and often four when conditions are right. “This year, you were truly blessed to get maybe two,” according to a Mississippi State University Extension forage agronomist. “A lot of the second cutting was delayed by quite a bit of rain in June and July. We had drought conditions after that, and although growers kept waiting to get a third cutting, the forage never could get going.” WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 20, 2023

Crop yields were “really down” in Pottawatomie County in northeast Kansas. Some farmers were moving cattle off pastures earlier than usual. Hay production was also poor. The area did not receive any significant precipitation from late July to early October, leaving soybean yields less than half of a normal crop. SF| Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 20, 2023

Morton pumpkin growers attested that getting seeds to germinate was a challenge, but rain helped the seeds to sprout and grow. Drought reduced the size of the pumpkins and number of the pumpkins, but the dry conditions also led to very little rot among the pumpkins. Peoria Public Radio (Ill.), Oct 13, 2023

Drought caused some apples in Iowa to be ready for picking as much as three weeks earlier than normal. Cherokee Chronicle Times (Iowa), Oct 19, 2023

The Texas A&M Agronomy Society cannot offer its annual corn maze and fall festival this year, due to extreme drought this summer that killed the corn crop. The seeds were planted in July, but no rain fell for nearly three or more months with temperatures above 100°. The seeds were irrigated, but the high soil temperatures caused the water to evaporate, leaving the seeds dry. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), Oct 19, 2023

A burn ban took effect, prohibiting outdoor burning and open fires within city limits, including recreational fires in fire pits. FOX23 News (Tulsa, Okla.), Oct 19, 2023

Drinking water advisories in Plaquemines Parish have been lifted as reverse osmosis machines and barges moving millions of gallons of water were arriving to dilute the salt in the water to safe levels below 250 ppm consistently. FOX 8 (New Orleans, La.), Oct 18, 2023 The water supply for communities drawing water from the Mississippi River is being protected by an underwater barrier to block the progression of a saltwater wedge that is moving upstream since July. The saltwater is expected to overtop the current barrier sometime around Sept. 22. In June, saltwater affected the drinking water of residents in lower Plaquemines Parish, forcing them to use water provided by the parish. About 2,000 people were using the distributed water, and the parish has given out more than 1.5 million gallons of water. If the saltwater were to reach Belle Chasse, at least 20,000 more people would need potable water. The bed of the Mississippi River is below sea level throughout the entire length of Louisiana, so when drought reduces the flow of the river, the salty, denser ocean water can creep further upstream. WWNO 89.9 (New Orleans, La.), Sept 19, 2023 Plaquemines Parish has been dealing with water line breaks and the saltwater wedge in the Mississippi River for months as drought affects the region. Lower parts of Plaquemines Parish have not had clean drinking water for months due to a saltwater wedge creeping up the Mississippi River. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built an underwater sill in July to slow the movement of the wedge upstream, but the wedge is expected to push past the sill and reach Belle Chasse by October 3. WWL-TV (New Orleans, La.), Sept 17, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Oct 2023 02:41:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Oct 2023 03:31:26 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200241 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 The eye of Norma is no longer evident on conventional geostationary satellite imagery, but could still be seen on a recent SSMI/S microwave pass. Deep convection remains very strong near the estimated center with some cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. A few convective banding features are evident over the northern portion of the circulation, and upper-level outflow is still strong over most sectors of the system. The current intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of various subjective and objective satellite estimates. This is in best agreement with a recent AI-based objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. For the next couple of days, Norma's environment will be characterized by increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with a broad upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula, along with a drier mid-level air mass. These factors should cause gradual weakening while the system nears southern Baja California Sur, but it is likely that Norma will still be a hurricane when it moves near or over that area. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the model guidance during the early part of the forecast period, but close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA at 48 hours and beyond. Although the center fixes are a little more uncertain than earlier today, the initial motion does not appear to have changed much and is around 350/6 kt. Over the next few days, Norma is expected to move between a mid-level high to its east and a trough to the northwest and north. The track guidance models, especially the more reliable ones, have come into a little better agreement, and the NHC forecast track is close to the simple dynamical model consensus. This is also close to the previous official forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the area. 2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through Sunday This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 108.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200240 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 23(27) 52(79) 9(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 13(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 20(23) 52(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 18(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) LA PAZ 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 17(49) 8(57) X(57) X(57) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 2(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 65 25(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 50 5 29(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 110W 64 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 11(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 200240 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 ...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to La Paz * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 the center of Norma was located near 18.2, -108.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.