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No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 24 02:32:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Areas affected...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240227Z - 240530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may develop in the next 2-3 hours. These storms will be capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Subtle signs of lift are evident in parts of west-central/northwest Iowa on IR satellite imagery. The KOAX VAD is showing the low-level jet at around 40 kts already this evening. This is expected to increase into the overnight. Lift along a warm front will eventually support potentially scattered elevated thunderstorm development within the next 2-3 hours. The 00Z observed OAX sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates. Though more muted, these lapse rates also extend into Iowa/Minnesota per this evenings DVN/MPX soundings. Mid/upper-level winds are strong enough to support long hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective shear. The strongest storms will be supercellular and capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is possible this evening. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635 41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145 44049223 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail will be possible late this evening into the overnight across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and eastward into Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper-air pattern is forecast tonight over the western half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a large-scale trough rotating across southern CA and Baja California. In the low levels, a warm front will advance north across portions of the Midwest as an elongated warm air conveyor belt extends from the southern Great Plains arcing north-northeast into the Great Lakes. ...IA/MN/WI... Latest surface observations show the northern periphery of richer moisture has moved into western IA/eastern NE. The 00z Omaha raob featured 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. The LLJ is forecast to intensify this evening and focus large-scale ascent mainly in the form of isentropic ascent/warm-air advection in the vicinity of the warm front. Recent time-lagged HRRR model runs indicate isolated to scattered storms developing farther west and near the MO River by late this evening. This activity seems to favor a west-east corridor across northern IA and perhaps far southern MN. Given the favorable lapse rates and deep-layer shear profiles supporting the potential for updraft rotation, have introduced a small 15-percent hail probability (Slight Risk). ...Rio Grande/western part of the Edwards Plateau... The 00z Del Rio raob showed relatively weak lapse rates above the boundary layer, indicative of moisture via decayed TC remnants. Despite the lack of lightning and weak updraft development through early evening, a low probability for a strong updraft could materialize later tonight across this region as southerly 850-mb flow strengthens. However, it seems the risk for severe will be limited by overall weak buoyancy/lapse rates. ..Smith.. 10/24/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Otis, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system by late this week or this weekend while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Continuing drought and the heightened fire risk led the Cowley County Commission to approve a state of local disaster emergency on Oct. 17. The declaration will remain in effect for seven days, unless terminated or renewed before that time. Cowley Courier Traveler (Arkansas City, Kan.), Oct 21, 2023

Students in Caney, Kansas were being offered hand sanitizer instead of hand washing, and trailered restrooms rather than showers as water supplies were expected to be exhausted at the end of 2023. Water fountains were shut off, and students were given bottled water. Porta potties will be brought in for athletic events. Caney schools will be moving to a four-day school week starting Oct. 30 as the area struggles to cope with severely depleted water supplies. FOX23 News (Tulsa, Okla.), Oct 20, 2023

Pumpkins did not grow well on a Brookshire farm this year. They often supplement their supply with additional pumpkins from the Floydada area. The 8-acre corn maze was about 3 to 4 feet in height after drought prevented the corn from growing around 7 feet tall as it usually does. KHOU Online (Houston, Texas), Oct 23, 2023

A ban on all outdoor burning took effect for the City of Dickson on the morning of Oct. 23. The fire marshal announced the burn ban after an assessment of ongoing drought conditions, dry vegetation and low humidity determined that the risk to life and property was in the critical stage. DicksonPost (Tenn.), Oct 23, 2023

Multiple trees will be removed from San Marcos City Park, due to “drought stress and disease,” according to a Facebook post by the San Marcos Parks and Recreation Department. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Oct 22, 2023

Wildfire combined with fog northwest of New Orleans, causing zero visibility, which led to a series of pileups that have resulted in at least two deaths. A wildfire that has been smoldering since July flared up, producing more smoke, which mingled with fog to create super fog. FOX Weather (New York), Oct 23, 2023

To extinguish a fire burning in a New Orleans East swamp, the Sewerage & Water Board was pumping water from a drainage canal onto the swamp where the blaze has been burning on private land between Bayou Sauvage Urban National Wildlife Refuge and the Michoud Canal for at least nine days. The fire was burning in boggy soil, which is hard to extinguish. Smoke from the swamp fire contributed to the multi-vehicle pileups on I-55 on the morning of Oct. 23. Drought dried up the ponds in the swamp, and it was hoped that bringing water back into the swamp would help replenish the ponds. Baton Rouge Advocate (La.), Oct 23, 2023

Wildfires continued to be a problem in Mississippi with more than 1,100 fires sparking since August, due to intense heat and the lack of rain. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 23, 2023 Since the start of August, the Mississippi Forestry Commission has responded to more than 1,030 fires that have scorched more than 16,000 acres. Low water levels allowed wildfires to reach hardwood river bottoms in parts of the Magnolia State. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 17, 2023 Mississippi firefighters have responded to more than 760 fires that scorched over 14,163 acres since Aug. 1 as drought provides fuel for fires. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 27, 2023 Since August, there have been more than 563 wildfires in the state. A massive 400-acre wildfire that began Aug. 26 in Smith County keeps reigniting, so firefighters continue to work on it. Much of Mississippi remains under a burn ban. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 13, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 23 02:47:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 23 02:47:02 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Oct 2023 02:41:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Oct 2023 03:35:04 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Convection has been pulsing in the northwestern quadrant of Otis during the past several hours, with less overall convective activity than this afternoon. Microwave data and ship reports suggests the center is southeast of the main area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt, in line with recent Dvorak T-number estimates. Otis appears to be moving north-northwest at about 4 kt. The biggest change to report on this advisory is that there's been a notable northwest shift in the NHC track forecast. The synoptic pattern of a trough over northwestern Mexico and a ridge over the northwestern Caribbean would seem to favor a slow north-northwest track for the next few days. Much of the GFS-based guidance, however, appears to be too intertwined with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in many of the aids not showing enough motion during the next few days or even a track southward. This doesn't seem realistic, and I've adjusted the forecast a large distance to the northwest, with further northwest track changes possible on later forecasts. The storm will likely be in an environment of light-to-moderate shear, with fairly high mid-level humidity over very warm water. These conditions should promote gradual strengthening, which is shown to begin after 12 hours to give the system some time to re-align vertically. An increase in shear and possible land interaction is forecast to cause Otis to level off in intensity around midweek. This NHC intensity prediction is near the higher end of the guidance, closer to the statistical guidance than the dynamical models, the latter of which seem to be too low given the large-scale environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 11.1N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230240 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 6(23) X(23) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 2(33) X(33) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 97.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 97.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 97.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 97.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230240 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...OTIS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 97.3W ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of the Otis. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 97.3 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is anticipated for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Otis will be approaching the southern coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall may impact coastal areas of southern Mexico from Oaxaca to Guerrero later this week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake