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All of northwest Alabama was in drought, and the forecast offered no chances of significant rain. Local authorities were pleading with the public to avoid outdoor burning. Times Daily (Florence, Ala.), Oct 13, 2023

Wisconsin crop yields were better than expected. A farmer noted that the stalk was shorter than normal, but the grain filled out well. Wisconsin farmers planted about 3.9 million acres of corn last year. Most was harvested for grain, but 880,000 acres were cut for silage. Drought may lead to more acres being cut for silage this year. Wisconsin State Journal (Madison), Oct 11, 2023

Nebraska hunters were reminded to exercise caution to prevent inadvertently sparking a wildfire as 27% of the state was in severe to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. KFXL (Axtell, Neb.), Oct. 12, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Nebraska. ...Central Plains... An upper low will continue to move slowly east across NE through tonight, with a 70-80 kt midlevel jet pushing east into IA and northern MO. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves east across the same areas. Storms have generally decreased in intensity this evening due to the cooling air mass, except for farther south into east-central KS in closer proximity to the surface warm plume. 00Z soundings downstream indicate minimal instability overall, with little additional destabilization expected as a cooling boundary layer counteracts any cooling aloft. Shear will remain strong over northern areas, but waning instability should limit the overall severe risk. As such, a Marginal Risk will remain over the area for sporadic hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell.. 10/13/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

After an intense summer of drought that devastated a lot of the pumpkin crop in the Hartsburg area, farmers imported pumpkins for the upcoming festival to make sure that they had enough on hand. KRCG-TV (New Bloomfield, Mo.), Oct 12, 2023

A number of water suppliers in Pennsylvania have asked customers to mandatorily conserve water. In addition to the York Water Company requiring mandatory non-essential water use restrictions, Audubon Water Company, in Montgomery County; Littlestown Municipal Water Authority, in Adams County; and Lock Haven City Authority, in Clinton County all have similar water restrictions. Eighteen public water suppliers were also seeking voluntary water conservation. York Dispatch (Pa.), Oct 12, 2023

The heat and drought in Louisiana this summer left grass in short supply for an Erath farm, leaving less for cattle. The pasture is in a marshy area, so the saltwater has been moving into the pasture, which has affected the calves. The aim is to have at least half of the calves weighing more than 500 pounds, but the lack of grass and saltwater intrusion have thwarted that plan. Just two of the calves have hit the weight goal. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Oct 6, 2023

Northern Michigan has many wineries and is a 'wine tourism' destination. This year, drought over the summer stressed the grape vines, which can lead to excellent fruit quality and fabulous wine. UpNorthLive (Traverse City, Mich.), Oct 6, 2023

U.S. farmers were about halfway done planting winter wheat that will be harvested in 2024, but acreage was expected to remain the same or decrease from last year due to lower prices and farmers' dissatisfaction with the crop after three dry years. Reuters (Chicago), Oct 12, 2023

A Skagit County hay grower without irrigation found that his production was down 30%. He had to sell some cattle early. A nonprofit farm animal rescue organization that usually buys hay from the grower was struggling to find enough hay. A potato grower had to irrigate his potato field to help them emerge for the first time. Water was purchased from the Skagit Public Utility District. One farmer was not able to irrigate his crops for three weeks after the level of the Skagit River dropped too low. Early snowmelt, a lack of spring rain and low stream flows led the state Department of Ecology to declare a drought emergency in 12 counties in July, including parts of Skagit County. GoSkagit (Mount Vernon, Wash.), Oct 7, 2023

Mississippi cattlemen were spending more money to get their cattle ready to market. The ongoing drought has slashed hay production and left the cattle eating hay that was intended to be fed during the winter. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 11, 2023

Crop yields have been higher than expected, but stalk stability has been an issue with strong winds knocking the corn stalks down. Farmers may have to compensate by harvesting more slowly, adjusting equipment and harvesting from a different direction to accommodate leaning stalks. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Oct 10, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 12 01:53:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2239 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota and west central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120150Z - 120415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing low-level warm advection may support additional thunderstorms capable of isolated hail this evening. Confidence in storm coverage and severity is low and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 0140 UTC, regional IR satellite imagery showed cooling cloud tops along a band of convection across portions of the central Plains. Located along and north of a warm front emanating from a deepening lee low over eastern CO, convection is expected to continue to slowly deepen and increase in coverage near the frontal corridor through this evening and into the overnight hours. Area VADs and surface obs show low-level mass response ahead of the deepening low, along with a moderately strong low-level jet. Favored by the uptick in low and mid-level warm advection, forcing for ascent should continue to build this evening supporting additional storm development. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along the warm front should support a few stronger updrafts. Bolstered by a band of westerly mid-level flow associated with the deepening low, 30-40 kt effective shear may also support some organization of these updrafts into sustained multicells or transient supercell structures. Generally north of the surface warm front and with nocturnal cooling ongoing at the surface, storms should remain elevated with the main risk being isolated hail with the more sustained/robust updrafts. Hi-res guidance varies on the degree of storm coverage/intensity through this evening, casting uncertainty on how widespread any severe risk will be. However, current radar and observational trends do suggest a few stronger storms with hail potential may evolve over north-central NE and spread into portions of southern SD and western IA tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41389491 41249657 41279934 41540048 41580061 42210136 43050101 43280048 43629845 43569762 43369652 43139586 42669435 42249336 41639310 41429388 41389491 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 12 00:52:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight. ...Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle... A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms that move ashore. This appears most likely late tonight from the Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger instability develops with time. ...From NE into northern IL... The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO. As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail. Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail. Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm surface air near the warm front. ..Jewell.. 10/12/2023 Read more