Aggregator

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE 6R6 TO 60 NNW DRT TO 50 W JCT TO 35 ESE SJT TO 15 SE ABI TO 55 NNE ABI TO 25 SSW LTS. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-013-019-023-029-031-049-053-059-083-091-093-095-127-133- 137-163-171-187-209-255-259-265-267-271-281-299-307-319-323-325- 327-333-385-411-413-417-429-435-447-463-465-487-493-503-507- 030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER ATASCOSA BANDERA BAYLOR BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMAL COMANCHE CONCHO DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON THROCKMORTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WILBARGER WILSON YOUNG ZAVALA Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW 6R6 TO 45 ENE 6R6 TO 25 SSW SJT TO 20 NNE SJT TO 25 SW ABI TO 45 N ABI TO 60 SSE CDS TO 20 ESE CDS. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-013-019-023-029-031-049-053-059-083-091-093-095-105-127- 133-137-155-163-171-187-197-207-209-253-255-259-265-267-271-275- 281-299-307-319-323-325-327-333-385-399-411-413-417-429-435-441- 447-451-463-465-487-493-503-507-030140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER ATASCOSA BANDERA BAYLOR BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMAL COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS FOARD FRIO GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HARDEMAN HASKELL HAYS JONES KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY KNOX LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON Read more

MD 0098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma into North Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022142Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and gusty winds possible late afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...The air mass across southwestern Oklahoma into north central Texas is slowly recovering after morning shower activity and cloud cover has diminished. This can be observed in surface temperatures warming into the upper 60s along with cu development along the southern fringe of the eroding mid-level capping inversion. Some stable air remains in place as observed by billow clouds across the Red River as of 21z. Further overspreading of ascent and cooler temperatures aloft should work to further diminish mid-level capping. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg have nudged their way into portions north Central Texas just south of the Red River. Storms have initiated to the southwest along and just behind the Pacific front slowly tracking eastward. Should this corridor continue to destabilize as deep layer shear increases into the evening, storms moving into this region could support a risk of large hail and damaging wind. This area will be monitored for trends and watch potential later this afternoon/evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34689887 34359866 33979860 33649863 33329913 32929969 32909991 32890003 32990025 33060036 33210041 33780029 34779987 34889961 34859922 34689887 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 2 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma into North Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022142Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and gusty winds possible late afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...The air mass across southwestern Oklahoma into north central Texas is slowly recovering after morning shower activity and cloud cover has diminished. This can be observed in surface temperatures warming into the upper 60s along with cu development along the southern fringe of the eroding mid-level capping inversion. Some stable air remains in place as observed by billow clouds across the Red River as of 21z. Further overspreading of ascent and cooler temperatures aloft should work to further diminish mid-level capping. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg have nudged their way into portions north Central Texas just south of the Red River. Storms have initiated to the southwest along and just behind the Pacific front slowly tracking eastward. Should this corridor continue to destabilize as deep layer shear increases into the evening, storms moving into this region could support a risk of large hail and damaging wind. This area will be monitored for trends and watch potential later this afternoon/evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34689887 34359866 33979860 33649863 33329913 32929969 32909991 32890003 32990025 33060036 33210041 33780029 34779987 34889961 34859922 34689887 Read more

MD 0097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...South-central into northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022103Z - 022330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storm development is possible late this afternoon, and will become increasingly likely this evening. Large hail is expected to be the primary threat, though isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Watch issuance is possible by late afternoon or early evening. DISCUSSION...At 2045 UTC, a Pacific cold front/effective dryline extended from the western TX Panhandle southeastward into parts of northwest TX, and then southwestward toward western portions of the Edwards Plateau into the Big Bend region. High-based convection has developed west of the front across the Permian Basin region, in association with deep mixing and large-scale ascent attendant to a upper-level trough that is approaching west TX from the southern Rockies. East of the front, low-level moisture remains rather modest with dewpoints in the 50s F, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range as cold temperatures aloft (-18C to -20C at 500 mb) and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. While substantial capping persists across the warm sector, continued heating along the western periphery of the low-level moist axis will act to reduce MLCINH through late afternoon. With time, ongoing high-based convection may intensify as it moves into better moisture/instability, with additional development possible near the front by early evening from northwest TX southward to near the Rio Grande. The onset of the greater severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, and may hold off until early evening, when stronger large-scale ascent begins to impinge across the warm sector. The most conditionally favorable environment is expected to evolve over the Edwards Plateau/south-central TX, where stronger mid/upper-level flow and greater hodograph elongation is expected this evening. Isolated supercells capable of large to very large hail will be possible in this area, with some threat for localized severe gusts and possibly a tornado, depending on the extent to which surface-based convection can be sustained. A few organized cells/clusters will also be possible into parts of northwest TX. Watch issuance is possible in order to cover these threats, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. ..Dean/Goss.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29580151 29820185 30100191 30580184 31080160 31520130 32480075 32830031 33249894 32369818 30339802 28969835 28039895 28029945 28000006 28460053 29290129 29580151 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more