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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Members of the Nebraska Corn Board have trimmed their budget and have requested an increase in the corn checkoff from one half-cent to one cent. Drought and inflation have cut into the amount collected, which is around $7 million. NTV (Axtell, Neb.), Feb 6, 2024

Topsoil and subsoil were reported as adequate to surplus for all counties across North Texas. Pasture and rangelands were good to fair for most counties, with a few reporting poor conditions. Temperatures were warmer for the week, and some areas had rainfall up to 2 inches. These conditions allowed winter grasses to revive from the impact of the freeze in January. Some corn fields remained too wet to work. Wheat and oat conditions were poor due to previous harsh weather. Livestock were in good condition as hay feeding continued. Hay shortages in some areas impacted cattle inventory. Armyworms and cutworms were reported in Grayson and Fannin counties, but no other pest or disease were reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 6, 2024

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more