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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary mitigating factor for large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary mitigating factor for large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary mitigating factor for large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary mitigating factor for large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary mitigating factor for large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A number of grass fires broke out across Iowa on Feb. 8, due to high winds, dry conditions and ongoing drought. Various rural areas dealt with larger fires in Corydon, Indianola and New Virginia. KCCI TV 8 (Des Moines, Iowa), Feb 9, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the lower Ohio Valley on Monday, as an associated surface low moves into the southern Appalachian Mountains. A cold front is forecast to be positioned in the central Gulf Coast states at 12Z on Monday, with a line of strong thunderstorms likely ongoing near and ahead of the front. This line is forecast to move eastward through Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the morning, reaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be strong in the vicinity of the line. This, combined with sufficient instability and strong low-level shear should support an isolated tornado threat. Wind damage also will be possible along the stronger parts of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease from west to east during the afternoon as the line moves toward the Atlantic coast, with the line moving offshore by early evening. ...Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8... Zonal flow is forecast to develop at mid-levels across the eastern half of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, with flow becoming more northwesterly on Thursday and Friday. In response at the surface, multiple high pressure systems are forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Dry and cold conditions associated with the high pressure systems will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week timeframe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the lower Ohio Valley on Monday, as an associated surface low moves into the southern Appalachian Mountains. A cold front is forecast to be positioned in the central Gulf Coast states at 12Z on Monday, with a line of strong thunderstorms likely ongoing near and ahead of the front. This line is forecast to move eastward through Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the morning, reaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be strong in the vicinity of the line. This, combined with sufficient instability and strong low-level shear should support an isolated tornado threat. Wind damage also will be possible along the stronger parts of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease from west to east during the afternoon as the line moves toward the Atlantic coast, with the line moving offshore by early evening. ...Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8... Zonal flow is forecast to develop at mid-levels across the eastern half of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, with flow becoming more northwesterly on Thursday and Friday. In response at the surface, multiple high pressure systems are forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Dry and cold conditions associated with the high pressure systems will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week timeframe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the lower Ohio Valley on Monday, as an associated surface low moves into the southern Appalachian Mountains. A cold front is forecast to be positioned in the central Gulf Coast states at 12Z on Monday, with a line of strong thunderstorms likely ongoing near and ahead of the front. This line is forecast to move eastward through Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the morning, reaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be strong in the vicinity of the line. This, combined with sufficient instability and strong low-level shear should support an isolated tornado threat. Wind damage also will be possible along the stronger parts of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease from west to east during the afternoon as the line moves toward the Atlantic coast, with the line moving offshore by early evening. ...Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8... Zonal flow is forecast to develop at mid-levels across the eastern half of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, with flow becoming more northwesterly on Thursday and Friday. In response at the surface, multiple high pressure systems are forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Dry and cold conditions associated with the high pressure systems will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week timeframe. Read more