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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ...Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ...Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ...Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ...Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ...Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ...Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary mitigating factor for large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more