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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

Saltwater intrusion in the Mississippi River has left crawfish farmers in south Louisiana without any crawfish to sell, according to a crawfish distributor in Cottonport. KALB-TV (Alexandria, La.), Feb 1, 2024

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more