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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 2 20:01:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ...Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ...East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ...Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ...East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ...Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ...East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ...Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ...East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ...Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ...East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ...Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ...East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more