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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N LFT TO 25 SE HEZ TO 45 SW CBM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-077-091-093-095-105-121-125-120640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-023-029-031-035-037-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-085-091- 099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-120640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ESF TO 40 ENE HEZ TO 35 S GWO. ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-029-033-037-047-063-077-091-093-095-105-121-125- 120540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTTANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-157- 120540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE Read more

MD 0135 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120144Z - 120315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage later tonight, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A strong storm has recently developed just off of the LA coast, which is now moving onshore. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (as noted on the 00Z LCH and LIX soundings) are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This instability in combination with strong effective shear (50+ kt) will support supercell potential through the evening. Storm coverage in the short term may remain isolated, but as a mid/upper-level low and attendant cold front approach from the west, additional storm development will be possible later this evening. Large hail and locally gusty winds will the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat could also evolve with time, especially if any sustained supercell can move into southeast LA, where sufficient low-level shear/SRH will likely persist tonight. Watch issuance remains possible this evening, if a sustained supercell threat appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29399297 30539239 30859144 30919093 30729056 30279033 29799044 29429066 29199096 29199139 29229197 29259227 29399297 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-107-120340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA TENSAS MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073- 075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-157- 120340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON MARION NESHOBA NEWTON PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-107-120340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA TENSAS MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073- 075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-157- 120340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON MARION NESHOBA NEWTON PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more